The World Bank has projected 3.6 per cent average economic growth for the Nigerian economy between 2025 and 2026 following ongoing reforms by the Federal Government.
The global bank stated this in its report, Global Economic Prospects, January 2025 published on Thursday.
It added that recent reforms by the Federal Government helped to boost business confidence.
Profound among the economic reforms by the Federal Government has been the removal of fuel subsidies and controversial tax bills.
The World Bank said, “In Nigeria, Gross Domestic Product, GDP, growth increased to an estimated 3.3 per cent in 2024, mainly driven by services sector activity, particularly in financial and telecommunication services.
“Macroeconomic and fiscal reforms helped improve business confidence. In response to rising inflation and a weak naira, the central bank tightened monetary policy.
“Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit narrowed due to a surge in revenues driven by the elimination of the implicit foreign exchange subsidy, following the unification of the exchange rate and improved revenue administration.
“Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, SSA is expected to firm to 4.1 per cent in 2025 and 4.3 per cent in 2026, as financial conditions ease alongside further declines in inflation. Following weaker-than-expected regional growth last year, growth projections for 2025 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points, and for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points, with improvements seen across various subgroups. At the country level, projected growth has been upgraded for nearly half of SSA economies in both 2025 and 2026.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to an average of 3.6 per cent a year in 2025-26. Following monetary policy tightening in 2024, inflation is projected to gradually decline, boosting consumption and supporting growth in the services sector, which continues to be the main driver of growth.”
The bank added that oil production is expected to increase over the forecast period but remain below the OPEC quota.
Nigeria’s oil production growth has remained marginal in the last year.
Daily average oil production rose by 152, 000 barrels per day last November, according to data sourced from the newly released monthly oil market report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
According to the OPEC MOMR for December 2024, the country’s production including condensates rose by 11 per cent, from 1.333 million barrels in October to 1.486 million in November 2024.
The analysis puts the daily increase to 152, 000b/d and about one million barrels increase between October and November last year.
In an update, however, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission in its latest oil production data, indicated that on a month-on-month basis, daily average oil output in December 2024, declined by 1.35 per cent from 1.690 million barrels per day recorded in November 2024, to 1.667mbpd.
Data from the Commission also indicated that daily peak oil production in December 2024 was 1.79mbpd while the lowest daily production was 1.57mbpd.
Cumulatively, oil output in December 2024, was 51.69 million barrels, a marginal increase of 1.9 per cent when compared to 50.71 million barrels produced in November 2024.
The World Bank report added that, “The baseline forecast implies that per capita income growth will remain weak over the forecast horizon.”
