BY BRIGHT JACOB
Political commentators have continued to caution the two main political parties in Nigeria, the ruling All Progressives Congress and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party against downplaying the possibility of a presidential rerun.
They have reminded the parties that it would be counterproductive to “count their chickens before they are hatched”.
The two parties have both expressed confidence in their ability to win the presidential election to be conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission on February 25, 2023 at the first ballot.
The INEC national Commissioner and Chairman, Information and Voter Education Committee, Festus Okoye, had told Editors of media organisations and Bureau Chiefs, in Abuja, that INEC would print concurrently, the ballot papers for the presidential election and those for a possible rerun exercise, should a clear winner, as stipulated by the constitution, not emerge after the first ballot.
Okoye said, “Section 134 subsection 2 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, which is the fundamental law of the land, makes it mandatory that before anyone is deemed to have been elected as a president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, that candidate must secure the highest number of votes cast at the election.
“He must also secure a quarter of the votes cast in two-thirds of all the states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory. That is mandatory.
“Now, if no candidate secures this highest number of votes and the mandatory threshold, the Constitution says we must have a second election within a period of 21 days.
“Now, not all candidates are going to participate in this second election. Eighteen candidates will be on the ballot for the first election,” he said.
Furthermore, Okoye said, “If no candidate emerges on the first ballot, only two candidates are going to be on the second ballot or only two candidates are going to contest the second election. Who are those candidates that will be on the ballot for the second election?
“The Constitution has made it very clear that (only) two candidates will be on the ballot (in the rerun election). They are one amongst the candidates who scored the highest number of votes at the election.
“The second candidate that will be on the ballot will be one amongst the remaining candidates who has the majority of votes in the highest number of states,” Okoye emphasized.
“It will be counter-productive for the PDP and APC to count their chickens before they hatch. I mean…what are they saying? Are they relegating Obi and Kwankwaso to the background?”
INEC’s position has, however, been waved aside by the camps of the two leading parties, who have insisted that their presidential candidates would win convincingly in the first ballot and there would be no need for a possible rerun as expressed by the electoral umpire.
The spokesperson of the Atiku-Okowa Campaign Council, Kola Ologbondinyan, was the first to write off the possibility of a presidential rerun.
According to him, the electoral body shouldn’t fret about a possible rerun poll, as the plan to organise one would not be necessary since the candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, would win convincingly in the first ballot. Ologbondinyan also noted that the candidate of the APC, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was not “electable”.
In a statement reacting to the decision of INEC to print extra ballot papers, Ologbondinyan said, “Our campaign council counsels INEC not to listen to diversionary narratives by apologists of the deflated APC who are ostensibly seeking ways to derail the election, having realised that their party has been rejected.
“The campaign urges INEC to deploy its resources towards conducting a free, fair, transparent and credible election that will be generally accepted by the majority of Nigerians.
“Our campaign is confident that by every indices and data available, our candidate, Atiku Abubakar, will win the presidential election of February 25, 2023, at the first run.
“The APC has seen defeat ahead as Nigerians are quickly reaching a consensus on the fact that the APC presidential candidate, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu, is not electable,” he added.
Ratifying the position of the PDP on the reasons why the party is confident about winning the first ballot without recourse to rerun election, Atiku’s Media Adviser, Paul Ibe, told The Point that Nigerians were fed up with the APC and “want to change the change”.
According to Ibe, the desire by Nigerians to have this change will mean that there will be only one ballot.
“There will be only one ballot, except there are people who are working against the interest of Nigerians. What is clear…what is becoming very obvious is the fact that there is a conscious effort by Nigerians to change. They (Nigerians) have seen where this change has brought them…to a cul-de-sac. There is, therefore, a desire (for a change) and it can only mean that there will be only one ballot,” Ibe told our correspondent.
Whether he believed that Nigerians would embrace a rerun if one was on the cards, and if the 2023 presidential election could be decided by a rerun poll because of the emergence of the Labour Party’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi and candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Ibe, who would have none of that, insisted that there would be one ballot.
He said, “We will have one ballot…make no mistake about it. This runoff is like what happens when you are not prepared for an exam…you pray that the exam should be postponed or rescheduled. Those who are propagating this runoff theory know that Nigerians will decisively, during the first ballot, determine the winner of the ballot, and that will be the PDP,” he said.
On the question about a rerun being necessitated by the constitution if a winner didn’t emerge after the first ballot, Ibe said, “INEC can prepare (for a rerun if they choose to)…(but) it’s mere academic exercise…printing ballot papers and all of that.”
The Point recalls that in July, a delegation of the United States-based National Democratic Institute and International Republican Institute, who visited Nigeria, said that the 2023 elections would be a departure from some of the political dynamics that defined previous polls in Nigeria since 1999.
The leader of the delegation, Secretary of State for Ohio, Frank LaRose, disclosed this while presenting its first joint pre-elections assessment statement to journalists in Abuja.
LaRose, amongst other things, said of Obi and Kwankwaso, “if a third party draws sufficient support, a runoff presidential election could be a real possibility for the first time since the transition to democracy, adding complexity to the 2023 elections.”
A political analyst cum Tinubu supporter, Moyo Jaji, said that even if Nigeria was a country where “nothing is impossible”, the APC flag bearer would win without a rerun, and anyone who thought otherwise was living in a “fool’s paradise”.
In his view, Tinubu would win by a landslide if ethnicity and religion were to be the parameters to be used for voting, and the veracity of the claim that northern elites were backing him (Tinubu’s) was authenticated.
Jaji said, “As far as things are concerned in Nigeria, nothing is impossible. There’s nothing you could put past our leaders, especially those who are at the top rung of society. But from the look of things, whoever is expecting a runoff is living in a fool’s paradise.
“I’m talking as a realist and a political scientist. If ethnicity and religion are the two parameters we use in voting, we already know where the voting will go. Look at the areas where people registered, North West, South West and others.
“Also, from the look of things, if it’s true that the northern elites are really backing Asiwaju, he would win by a landslide. And I wouldn’t blame INEC if they are preparing for a rerun. But as far as I am concerned, there won’t be any need for one,” Jaji submitted.
Asked to comment on the emergence of Obi and Kwankwaso changing the political dynamics that defined previous elections in Nigeria, thus, enabling a possible rerun, Jaji said, “I can tell you with my knowledge of the voting pattern and electoral behaviour that Kwankwanso’s influence is in Kano, and the votes there will be divided between him and Ganduje (Governor of Kano State).
“Obi is not even on the ground in the East. His party (Labour Party) cannot even boast of a counselor or a member of the House of Assembly in any state in Nigeria…not to talk of a member of the House of Representatives, Senator or Governor. It would be very hard for such a party to expect votes that may lead to a rerun. That’s my assumption…though it’s not cut and dried.”
Holding a contrary view, however, a public affairs analyst, Peter Emevo, in his own assessment, said that both the PDP and APC should tread cautiously and not brag about winning the first ballot.
Emevo said the constitution which made a provision for a rerun was not ignorant about the possibility of such.
“It will be counterproductive for the PDP and APC to count their chickens before they hatch. I mean…what are they saying? Are they relegating Obi and Kwankwaso to the background?
“Don’t the PDP and APC see the political revival taking place in the country? Are they blind to it? Don’t they see that the people want change and progress for this country?
“The constitution which provides for such a requirement is right in this regard. So, let them (APC and PDP) not pretend that without them this country cannot survive,” he said.
