The South South is often considered to be one of the small fries among Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, but the region is gradually carving out a niche for itself in the country’s political chessboard and could, to a great degree, shape the outcome of the 2027 presidential election.
The region, which is usually perceived as living in the shadow of more politically, established zones, such as the South West, South East and North West, could also rejig the country’s political pendulum as Nigerians know it, by determining where victory will swing to in 2027.
Analysts say this will all be made possible because the South South’s rising political profile has taken on a life of its own and its steady climb to national and political relevance have only just begun.
The recent invoking, therefore, of the name of the once politically expendable region by a former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, is a pointer to its rapidly changing political status.
El-Rufai had called for an alliance between the North and South South when he was at the home of the late elder statesman, Edwin Clark, in Rivers State, Nigeria,
The out-of-favour El-Rufai, led by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, went to the oil-rich state to offer his condolences to Clark’s bereaved family but chose to use the sombre occasion to ruffle a few feathers.
El-Rufai told teary-eyed Nigerians who were still feeling blue after Clark’s death that the country needs rescuing and only an alliance between the North and the South South could do the trick.
He said, “In the 60s, 70s and 80s, the traditional political partners of the North were the South South. Let us not forget that.
“Let us go back to that (partnership). Let us save this country because it really requires saving. We need a rescue operation.”
Although a chieftain of the All Progressives Congress and former member of the House of Representatives, Israel Sunny-Goli, described El-Rufai’s call for an alliance as unwarranted, analysts are of the view that the ruling party’s objection to the proposed partnership will not jar the ladder the South South is climbing with to political prominence.
A Lagos-based political analyst, Kingsley Uzoma, told The Point, “El-Rufai can be forgiven for his alliance talk because he has fallen out with his party, the APC, and Nigeria President, Bola Tinubu.
“Having said that, I am excited that the former Kaduna Governor’s utterances reflect the South South’s growing influence in the polity.
“The political reality of the South South is no longer obscure and political actors are seeing this quite clearly.
“The South South will soon become the political Mecca of Nigeria and only those with keen eyes will see the immense potential of the region and the opportunity it can afford those who believe in it.
“So, the way I see it, the people of the region will be dominant power brokers and kingmakers in the 2027 presidential election.”
A current affairs analyst, Reginald Anene, on his part, says that El-Rufai does not really care about the South South region.
Anene, who is also a clergyman, said that El-Rufai had “connived” with other prominent politicians to oust Goodluck Jonathan, a former President from the South South, and should not pretend to be a man of the region.
“The South South will soon become the political Mecca of Nigeria and only those with keen eyes will see the immense potential of the region and the opportunity it can afford those who believe in it”
“Was it not the North that teamed up to oust Goodluck Jonathan of which El-Rufai was a part of?” Anene asked.
“Was it not the APC that aligned with the new People’s Democratic Party led by Rotimi Amaechi and Bukola Saraki, together with the Congress for Progressive Change led by Buhari and Action Congress Nigeria led by Tinubu, who connived to oust Jonathan who is a South South man?”
“El-Rufai didn’t say then that he was a South South person. This is a case of sour grapes from him,” he added.
Anene also said that the South South may not really be the beautiful bride the North was looking for because the South South, South West and South East had been obliterated and do not exist anymore as it were.
“This is because of the fact that it is more about party and the unwritten rule in Nigerian politics that the North rules for eight years and the South rules for eight years,” he explained.
A political strategist, Mojo Jaji, told The Point that the South South and the North may find it difficult to establish the kind of alliance El-Rufai dreams about.
According to Jaji, the circumstances in the 60s and now have changed.
“The individuals involved and the circumstances prevailing at the time El-Rufai mentioned – that was during the First Republic when we had Northern People’s Congress, Action Group and the rest of them – are not the same as what we are having today.
“The alliances of those days came about naturally, unlike what El-Rufai is now advocating for because he lost out of the scheme of things,” Jaji said.
Jaji, a stalwart supporter of the APC, also said that the South South would not be able to help any Northern candidate to unseat the ruling party.
He also noted that the South South supported the AG and would do so, too, for the APC.
“Definitely not. The South South cannot make the difference for any opposition candidate from the North.
“And we must not forget that this South South that we are talking about was originally referred to as the COR region –that is, Calabar, Ogoja and Rivers.
“It was when Bendel State was balkanized that we had Delta and Edo States and their sympathies laid with the Action Group.
“The old Bendel State was purely AG and if you for instance splintered Bendel State today into Edo and Delta, the fact still remains that they’re voting APC.
“So, anybody talking about the South South can only fool those who are not conversant with Nigeria political issues,” Jaji said.
Nigeria’s South South region comprises six states – Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers; only the North West and South West, according to census figures, are believed to have more population than the region.
Despite their impressive population, the region has not had it easy when it comes to producing a President and Commander-in-Chief.
It was former President Jonathan, from Bayelsa State, who broke the jinx after, as Vice President, he managed to become President following the death of his boss, Umaru Yar’Adua.
And the region, since the advent of democracy in 1999, has also struggled to produce Vice Presidents, Senate Presidents and, surprisingly, Speakers of the House of Representatives.
The current Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, from Akwa Ibom State, finally sat on the exalted number three seat in Nigeria in 2023 because “consultations” with the leadership of the APC “yielded positive fruit.”
The South South used to be one of the strongholds of the main opposition party, the PDP, but that is changing as the APC – Cross River and Edo States now belong to the ruling party – has been gradually establishing a foothold there.
Concerning the region, its people and their biggest political aspirations, a political analyst, Benedict Njoku, said, “Unfortunately, the region cannot do much now about producing 2027 presidential candidates for the four leading parties in Nigeria.
“It sounds funny, but most of the parties have started booking their presidential candidates and we have yet to hear the name of a South South politician.
“But in the 2031 presidential election, which some people have started salivating over, I urge the people of the South South region to resist the temptation to accept the Vice President slot.
“2031 should be the turn of the region to produce Nigeria’s next president.
“They should, therefore, stake a claim for the highest office in the land. The people there must be fixated on presenting only presidential candidates in 2031.”