Why Hamzat may not succeed Governor
Muri-Okunola, Abiru touted likely successors
Let’s wait till then – Omotoso
BY ROTIMI DUROJAIYE, MAYOWA SAMUEL AND BRIGHT JACOB
There are fears in Lagos State as well as within the ruling All Progressives Congress in the state over the fate of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu in the forthcoming governorship election.
Investigations by The Point revealed that there were discussions within the party for the governor to be replaced.
Nigeria’s electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission, recently announced its reviewed timetable and schedules of activities. With the latest review, parties are expected to conclude their primaries by June 3 at the most.
Although, Sanwo-Olu has received quantum of endorsements from diverse groups and stakeholders, it is not clear if he will continue in office beyond 2023.
The APC’s apex caucus known as Governor’s Advisory Council, led by former Governor Bola Tinubu, has said that it has no plan to replace Sanwo-Olu and that such power does not lie with it.
With the nature of endorsements that Sanwo-Olu has garnered in recent times, as well as considering Tinubu’s interest in the 2023 presidential ticket of APC, pundits fear that an unpopular move to drop the incumbent governor may spell doom for the party.
Party sources said Tinubu’s hands were full with the presidential contest and he would need a stable and loyal home governor in Lagos to manage his base come 2023.
“It may not be easy for Tinubu to replace Sanwo-Olu with another person because the circumstances at play now are far different from what was at stake in 2019. Sanwo-Olu may not be easily changed like former governor Akinwunmi Ambode without a backlash,” a source held.
Top sources in the APC said it would be foolhardy for Tinubu to remove the governor at such a critical time when he is also contesting the presidency.
“There are discussions for the governor to be replaced. However, I seriously doubt if Tinubu will sign off on it. This is because Tinubu has been spending more time in Abuja than in Lagos these days due to his presidential campaign.
“So, he needs stability in his home state. Removing or attempting to remove Sanwo-Olu now could cause some instability and rub off on his campaign negatively, but you know, in politics, nothing is impossible,” said an APC chieftain who wished to remain anonymous because he is not authorised to speak to the press.
Another source claimed that the party leadership had concluded plans that no governor in Lagos APC would serve for more than one term in office.
The precedent was said to have been set with Ambode, a Christian, who hails from Lagos East zone and served just one term before he was replaced by Sanwo-Olu, who, though a Christian, comes from Lagos Central.
In the lineup of governors from the fourth republic, it could be seen that Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Muslim from Lagos West (1999 to 2007) was succeeded in 2007 by another Muslim in the person of Babatunde Fashola from Lagos Central (2007-2015).
The 2015 governorship election in Lagos was based on the factor that Lagos East zone and a Christian must be given the chance to rule since Tinubu and Fashola, who came from West and Central were Muslims.
The fear then was that the party leadership had tactically designed a strategy that no governor, either a Christian or Muslim, from whichever zone, can enjoy more than one term in office after Sanwo-Olu.
That apprehension became stronger with the selection of the incumbent Deputy Governor, Obafemi Hamzat, a Muslim from Lagos East. It was rumoured that by the time Sanwo-Olu rounds off his first term in 2023, his deputy, a Muslim from Lagos East, will step in to normalise the equation.
““It may not be easy for Tinubu to replace Sanwo-Olu with another person because the circumstances at play now are far different from what was at stake in 2019. Sanwo-Olu may not be easily changed like former governor Akinwunmi Ambode without a backlash”
That scheme was alleged to be behind the two-for-the-price-one sales pitch after Sanwo-Olu was nominated in 2018. Yet, at some point, there were concerns that the party’s leadership might not be favourably disposed to Hamzat succeeding his boss.
Senator Adetokunbo Abiru, a Muslim from Lagos East was said to have been deliberately brought in from Polaris Bank, to replace the late Senator Bayo Oshinowo, who died in 2020, in readiness for the governorship.
Abiru is believed to have been tactically positioned by Tinubu to take over from Sanwo-Olu in the event that Hamzat’s plan fails to fly.
The sentiment remains very strong still, suggesting that the Abiru arrangement was designed to deprive Sanwo-Olu of second term next year.
LIST OF POSSIBLE REPLACEMENTS
Apart from Abiru, several other names like the Speaker, House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila, a Muslim from Lagos Central; Speaker, Lagos House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa, a Muslim from Lagos West; Seyi Tinubu, another Muslim and son of the national leader from Lagos Central; and incumbent Head of Service in the state, Hakeem Muri Okunola, have all been touted as possible replacements for Sanwo-Olu for the 2023 poll.
Perhaps in response to speculations that it was searching for Sanwo-Olu’s replacement, the GAC said it didn’t pick anyone for the 2023 governorship.
In a statement, Mutiu Are, GAC Secretary, urged the public to disregard speculations that the party leaders and stakeholders had settled for a replacement for Sanwo-Olu.
Also, GAC urged the governor not to be distracted from delivering good governance to the people of Lagos, adding, “The GAC has not settled for any person to replace Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu as governor. Therefore, it is absolutely false and preposterous for anyone to suggest so.
“The process of picking a Governor is clearly stated in the constitution. And contrary to the false impression the merchant of hate, confusion, discord and disharmony wanted to create with the post, there is no discussion of second term ticket by the GAC.”
Gbajabiamila, one of those whose names were being dropped as possible replacements, while endorsing Sanwo-Olu for the second term, said the governor’s performance in the last two years had surpassed expectations.
And refuting his rumoured ambition to contest for the governorship seat in 2023, Gbajabiamila remarked that there was “no immediate plan” to contest the seat, stressing that the task before him as Number 4 citizen in the country was enormous and tough enough for him to be distracted by such rumours.
Similarly, Muri-Okunola debunked any plan to replace Sanwo-Olu as governor of the state, noting that he supports Sanwo-Olu and his administration’s plan to develop good policies and infrastructure in Lagos.
“Those behind the insinuation are working to plant a seed of discord between Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and I,” the Head of Service said.
The Christian Association of Nigeria said, based on Sanwo-Olu’s giant strides, it had publicly endorsed the governor for a second term. The Christian body described the Sanwo-Olu administration as “consciously pragmatic and proactive.”
CAN Chairman, Rt. Reverend Stephen Adegbite, said it was for that reason that they want Sanwo-Olu to return for a second term.
Surprisingly, one of the ardent critics of the APC administration, Ayo Adebanjo, leader of Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere, explained why he was a fan of Sanwo-Olu, despite not being in the same political party.
The nonagenarian said Sanwo-Olu deserved commendation for “his prudent management of Lagos resources as well as the visible transformation of the state in a little over two years.”
Describing him as an action governor, Adebanjo commended the Sanwo-Olu administration for providing an enabling environment for Small and Medium Enterprises.
Renowned economist, Pat Utomi, also commended the governor, saying, Lagos was being repositioned by the governor’s transformational strides.
Also, a member of the GAC, Olorunfunmi Bashorun, said Sanwo-Olu’s endorsements by the various groups were not too early.
He said, “We will soon have our national convention and primaries will follow. We are looking at the next eight months or so. The governor did not also beg anybody to endorse him for a second term.
“One of the credits to Sanwo-Olu is that the young and humble man never deviated from the party’s manifesto, neither has he abandoned any project of his predecessors, including that of Ambode. But Ambode abandoned many, if not, all projects he met. The former governor cancelled many and re-awarded several projects, which was a big mistake.
“There is nothing wrong if people endorsed him for the second term. I don’t see reason anybody will give Sanwo-Olu the kind of treatment given to Ambode.”
On his part, the immediate past chairman of Lagos APC, Tunde Balogun, said he understood why people were worried that Sanwo-Olu should not be treated like Ambode at the last minute.
“No one can compare the two. Sanwo-Olu is different, I must be honest. There may be one or two challenges, but you never see any form of bitterness against the governor among party members unlike what happened during the era of the immediate past governor.
“I know you will disagree but even in terms of effectiveness, Sanwo-Olu is better and he adhered strictly to party manifesto. I can assure you that in the next few months, you will begin to see massive projects this administration will bring out. What you least expected to see in 21st Century Lagos will surface,” Balogun stated.
A former member of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Ipoola Omisore, also dismissed apprehensions over a possible Ambode treatment to Sanwo-Olu, noting that apart from being two different persons, the most important thing about the incumbent was that he had never been in conflict with anybody.
“You may agree or disagree, leadership position is about conflict management. Sanwo-Olu has been able to manage conflict very well close to three years. He does not have issues with the party leadership unlike Ambode, who at a point had altercations with his former boss, Babatunde Fashola, the Minister of Works.”
“Apart from Abiru, several other names like the Speaker, House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila, a Muslim from Lagos Central; Speaker, Lagos House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa, a Muslim from Lagos West; Seyi Tinubu, another Muslim and son of the national leader from Lagos Central; and incumbent Head of Service in the state, Hakeem Muri Okunola, have all been touted as possible replacements for Sanwo-Olu for the 2023 poll”
Although Omisore said the #EndSARS crisis might not have been managed to the best of people’s expectations in Lagos, he added that the crisis was nationwide and no single individual should be blamed for it.
Lagos State Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Gbenga Omotoso, rather considered the matter as “much ado about nothing.” He wondered why any reporter would worry about what would happen in June “when this is March.” He proceeded to reel out the achievements of the Sanwo-Olu administration and concluded that there was still ample time for the subject matter to be attended to at the appropriate time.
He said, “If something is going to happen in June, why cry about it in March? It doesn’t make sense. The man has a four-year mandate. He has spent just two and a half years, everybody is happy about what he’s doing, building bridges, building houses, building schools, but what concerns you is something that will happen in June? Haba! As we say in that business, facts are sacred, not that you heard something in the beer parlour or you heard it in the market place.
“The intention of the governor now is to make sure that all of the things he has promised Lagosians, he is able to deliver, so that by the end of this year, by the grace of God, we are testing the blue line, we are testing the red line. At the end of this year, we would have completed thousands of homes for Lagosians. We would have built new schools, new hospitals. I think you should be concerned about all of that. Everything has its own time. As you’ve just told me now, you said the deadline is early June, so why cry about what will happen in June in March? You want to be God to say by June, this is what you will do? Only God can do that, I’m telling you.”
A political analyst, Moyo Jaji, told The Point that as the June 3rd deadline by INEC to political parties to conclude their primaries draws closer, Sanwo-Olu is free to contest a second term in office.
Jaji also said it was the “natural” thing to do (contest the election), and if he were in the Governor’s shoes he would also contest as much as the constitution permitted.
“I am not in a position to speak on behalf of Babajide Sanwo-Olu. But naturally, if I were in his shoes, I would like to contest for a second term. That is what the constitution allows, and if it’s more than that, I would like to go for more.
So, as far as I am concerned, I think it is natural if he wants to contest for second term, ceteris paribus,” he said.
On the alleged position of the GAC, that going forward no one would be allowed to go for a second term, Jaji said he was unaware of such a development. He also noted that the GAC doesn’t have the powers to determine whether anyone could go for a second term.
According to him, barring any misdemeanor, it is entirely up to the incumbent to determine whether he would be contesting or not.
“I have never heard of that statement made by the GAC. If you look at it critically, GAC is alien to the APC constitution.
It is a contraption limited to Lagos APC alone. So, inasmuch as the GAC is the highest decision making body in Lagos, I don’t think it has the power to determine whether somebody could go for a second term or not, unless there are incontrovertible evidences that can prevent the incumbent, like misdemeanor, or whatever. But if he chooses to go for second term, then so be it. It is now the duty of the party men and women, and the leadership of the party to say yes or no through conventions and primaries,” he said.
Asked about certain side talks circulating among the hierarchy of party faithful that since former Governor Ambode and incumbent, Sanwo-olu, are both Christians, a Muslim candidate should now emerge as governor, Jaji said those who held that view had a “defeatist” attitude and Nigeria was a secular state that allowed anyone, irrespective of religious affiliation, to vie for any position.
“As far as I am concerned, it is a very defeatist attitude to electoral practices. Nigeria is a secular state. That means Muslims, Christians or even any other religious beliefs can aspire to be anything in our nation, not necessarily Lagos alone,” he stressed.
Jaji added that such argument was what was being used against Bola Tinubu at the national level, and he called it “pedestrian” and “not democratic”.
He said, “If the majority of our electorate believes that someone is good, they don’t want to know about his religious background, or whatever.
“It is this religion specter that the deep states, those who are controlling the affairs of Nigeria, are using to control us, and this time around, I hope they don’t succeed. So, whether the man is a Christian, or the man before him was a Muslim, is not the issue. What we are after is good governance and who can deliver.”
The spokesman for the APC in Lagos State, Seye Oladejo, said that it was premature to speculate whether the governor could get a second term in office or not.
“I think some 5th columnists are the ones at work, so everything is just in the realm of speculation. No one can confirm, publicly, that Tinubu has asked Sanwo-Olu to serve for just one term. In any case, the governorship candidate will be picked by the party and not an individual.
“They may not find Sanwo-Olu as calm as Ambode who refused to put up a proper fight. 2023 is too delicate to attempt to deny him the ticket.
“The governor has been clear that he does not want to be distracted so when we get to the bridge, we will cross it. I think it is because of what happened to Ambode that the speculations are rife, but you must understand that no two elections are the same,” Oladejo told The Point.
Having witnessed, first hand, the treatment meted on Ambode, Sanwo-Olu made it clear from his first day in office that he would be a loyal party man.
Even before Tinubu officially declared his intention to contest the presidency, Sanwo-Olu helped mobilise several support groups. He even endorsed Tinubu as the best man for the job, but despite his loyalty to the party, Tinubu has yet to officially back him.
Sanwo-Olu was recently on television where he was asked if he would be seeking a second term in office.
He failed to provide a direct answer to the question, but said he was still consulting.
He however noted that it would be a huge loss for the people of Lagos if he wasn’t allowed to finish the job.
“I think we are doing a very good job, I dare say so. I think the citizens know they will be missing if they don’t let us continue to wrap up all the things we are doing,” the governor said.
