Russia’s miscalculation in its war with Ukraine

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Uba Group

BY USMAN AYEGBA

It is no more news that the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war has entered the fifth week. Against the expectation of many that in event of a full-scale invasion and outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, it is a matter of hours or days or at most, a week or two before Ukraine either surrenders to Russia or Russia brings Ukraine to its knees on its (Russian) terms, the war has taken the life of its own as Ukraine has so far proved to be difficult to crack. Understandably so, such speculations were based on comparative power elements in terms of the preponderance or enormity of (both tangible and intangible) weapons of war available to Russia than Ukraine.

However, the prevailing realities of war have proved such hypotheses wrong. Of a truth, in all ramifications, Ukraine is a no-match to Russia in the air, on/in the sea and on the land but ironically, the unfolding events from war fronts are causing serious apprehension in Moscow. If anything, news been churned out on minute (if not second) basis from major news channels are suggestive that Russian frontline troops are facing stiff resistance they never anticipated from Ukrainians.

As it were, Russian’s effort to capture Kyiv or subdue Ukraine has been stalled on all fronts of attacks. Call it anti-Russian western media propaganda or anything; the fact is that if Russia captures or overruns Kyiv, there is no way the world will be kept in the dark about it. As it stands, both sides are suffering heavy losses, no doubt. Why Ukrainians are suffering more in the area of facility (or infrastructure) destructions, Russia is losing more of its fighting men and weaponry.

But for fear of embarrassment that a small Ukraine defeats almighty Russia before the rest of the world, Moscow would have pulled back since realising its mistake. As it is in most wars, especially between the strong and the weak, ego is what is fuelling and sustaining this escalation currently. To Putin, the question is, how will he face the rest of the world that has overrated its power so high to the level of a superpower if it allowed or admitted to having been beaten or frustrated by a country like Ukraine seen as its one time satellite or subsidiary? Not only will such admission hurt Putin’s ego but the prestige of Moscow will equally diminish.

Such egoistic feelings naturally inflame passion on the part of the belligerent (in this case, Russia), to go overboard by targeting anything at sight no matter how sacred they may be. This explains why Russia is becoming more daring and brutal in its attacks against certain facilities inside Ukraine including but not limited to nuclear plants, maternity homes, oil depots. But for the NATO forces that are on standby to counter Russian aggression, Poland and other adjoining countries to Ukraine would have come under heavy Russian bombardment too.

This was a similar case with the Nigerian Federal Military Government under General Gowon during the Biafra secession. Contrary to the expectation of Gowon that what he called “police action” against the Biafra separatist forces would be quelled within days or at most, weeks, the Biafra resistance and determination to resist the almighty Federal troops jolted military highest command in Obalende, Lagos to the extent that “police action” that was meant to last for days or weeks lasted for 30 months.

In the same vein, following the end of World War II, French colonial authorities went back to re-colonise the Vietnamese but the pro-independence forces resisted the French come-back. For the temerity of the Vietnamese to dare fight for liberation from French re-colonisation, America felt insulted and adamantly went to invade Vietnam with the excuse that a free Vietnam would embrace communism thereby, justifying its involvement as a smart move to stop global communist expansion. This was against the advice of most realist scholars including the likes of Hans Morgenthau that a communist Vietnam posed no threat whatsoever to American national interest or those of any of its allies within the Southeast Asia geopolitics.

American involvement in Vietnam in support of France maintaining its pre-World War II colonial empire altered the nature of the war as Josef Stalin and Mao Tse Tung, Soviet and Chinese communist leaders, offered their support to the Viet Minh in 1950. This changed the battlefield dynamic and geopolitical character of the conflict from a struggle for independence from a colonial power to one of a global conflict against communist expansionism. In the end, America shamefully ended the war agreeing at least in principle that it had been beaten hands down by the seemingly defenceless people of Vietnam. Russia needs to learn from this to end the war.

Miscalculations of Russia in invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in the first instance include the fact that Russia thought that it could get away easily with this invasion without stiff resistance from Ukrainians and opposition from the west as it did during the 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

Moscow miscalculated by seeing the war being won before it started hence, focusing only on ‘when’ it will end without asking the ‘if’ question. Obviously, Putin and the coterie of his advisers may have underestimated the resolve and determination of Ukrainians to defend their country in the face of Moscow’s superior power.

Given the naive background of President Volodymyr Zelensky in war and strategy, since he was a comedian before becoming a president, Putin and his handlers felt that in event of war, Ukrainian C-in-C would be tactless in the operational strategies of his troops and this would give Russia rollercoaster ride. Russia thought, albeit, wrongly that Europe and the entire west would be divided and the more dis-united many European countries and America were, the more vulnerable Ukrainians.

Pro-Putin Russian elites thought that mobilising troops to the Ukrainian border will successfully bully Kyiv into submission without firing a shot. It never knew that there will be such determination on the part of Ukrainians to die than to live on their knees begging Moscow. Russia never anticipated that Ukrainian resistance would be sustained beyond a few hours and at most, days before its surrender to its superior power and it wanted to send a strong signal to Ukraine including all of its former allies and the rest of the world but ended up making a wrong move.

There is the Chechnya factor that was never in the consideration before rolling out tanks against Ukraine. Russia ought to have strategically planned ahead of time what would be the outcome of its Ukrainian invasion with the Chechnya separatist group clamouring for independence within its territory. Why it is a little bit difficult for Russia to pull back from this ongoing war is because of the thinking in an official circle in Moscow. The thinking now is that if Russia ends the war today without achieving the victory it originally anticipated, which, though, now turned out otherwise, the Chechnya separatists would be emboldened by the seeming Ukrainian defeat of Russia. They (the Chechnya fighters) will say if Ukraine can do it, they too can do it.

Finally, Russia failed to realise that early enough in diplomacy, the best power or force to win some wars is the one you have but never use. Russia was right in insisting that Ukraine must not join NATO and EU given how its members will make Russia’s national security vulnerable to western threats and attacks. It nonetheless did not manage the crisis very well. The best Putin could have done was to pull its forces 10 kilometres backwards from the Ukrainian border. That alone would have been a serious signal for Ukraine not to join NATO.

On the way forward, precarious and complex as the situation is presently for Russia right now, the best bet is to swallow the humble pie by calling off the fight. Who knows, if Moscow allowed this western sanction and the challenges it is facing at the battlefront to continue, it will get to a point that Russia will be economically drained, militarily fatigued and internationally isolated.

Ayegba, PhD, a public affairs analyst and lecturer sent this piece from the Department of Political Science, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Osun State.