- President’s popularity waning – Analysts
- Election money threatens CUPP’s unity
- Again, Atiku leads The Point’s poll with 60%℅
Before the shocking postponement of the Presidential and National Assembly elections earlier fixed for last Saturday by the Independent National Electoral Commission, the two leading candidates – President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party – were in a virtual dead heat.
Some pundits had concluded that the gap President Buhari was believed to have enjoyed over Atiku Abubakar initially, had narrowed significantly in the days just before February 16 and that a strong possibility of an Abubakar win, even if by a slim margin, was in the offing.
Now that elections have been postponed by a week, the question is: has this, in anyway, changed the chances of the two leading candidates?
GEO-POLITICAL ZONES AND CANDIDATES’ STRENGTHS
While the major campaigns of both parties have come to a close, The Point gathered that the North West, which, initially, was seen as the catchment area of Buhari and APC, could be slipping from their grasp as the PDP intensified last minute actions to win more supporters.
Political watchers believe that the influence of Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso is still growing despite the postponement.
A political analyst in Kano, Malam Isa Rabiu, informed The Point that Kwankwaso had been going round other states to mobilise support for Abubakar, using the window provided by the postponement, and believing that Kano has already been secured for Abubakar and PDP.
Kwankwaso and his allies are harping on the bribery allegations hanging on Governor Abdullahi Ganduje’s neck and the apparent defence of his alleged action by Buhari to discredit the APC among the lower rung masses, who form the majority of the electorate in Kano State.
The PDP Presidential candidate has also reached out to several interest groups in the North Central, including younger business interests and trade groups, to sell his economic revival agenda. Abubakar is also said to be gaining more ground in Sokoto, where Governor Aminu Tambuwal continues to mobilise support for him.
The South South and South East, as the PDP’s strong areas, still remain so. It was also gathered that the launching of the Akwa Ibom Airline on Wednesday by the state government had attracted some of Buhari’s supporters to Abubakar’s side in Akwa Ibom State.
However, the South West remains a battleground between the two leading candidates. While Buhari continues to benefit from the political influence of the National Leader of his party, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Abubakar has already been endorsed by the mainstream Afenifere, led by Pa Reuben Fasoranti.
However, most undecided voters in the South West, before the postponement, might have resolved to cast their votes for Atiku Abubakar because of what they have described as autocratic tendencies of President Muhammadu Buhari with his recent call that ballot box snatchers should be shot on sight by security operatives.
SEED OF DICSORD IN PDP, SUPPORTERS’ CAMPS
However, a raging issue, which might work against a landslide victory for Abubakar in the South West states, especially in Oyo and Ogun, where the African Democratic Congress, a member of the Coalition of United Political Parties, has strong structures, is an unconfirmed controversy relating to election money.
A top official of PDP in Ogun State, who asked not to be named, owing to the sensitivity of the issue, said, “Our people in ADC in Ogun, Oyo and Lagos have been angry that their leaders told them to mobilise votes for Atiku, but that they have been treated unfairly. Some of them have accused others of pocketing the amount meant for ADC.
“But the influence of Baba Obasanjo is so much that many of them have now overlooked the initial controversy as a ploy by the opposition to divide the camps and divide the votes.”
WHERE BUHARI, ATIKU STAND
Speaking with The Point, President, Right Monitoring Group, Mr Femi Aduwo, said the situation had changed in favour of Atiku Abubakar.
According to him, though INEC is referred to as an independent body, it still reports to the Secretary to the Government of the Federation.
He, therefore, insisted that only a few of its national officers were independent minded.
Aduwo said, “In the last few days, we have seen the ruling party being jittery, the same way it happened to PDP in 2015, when the election was postponed and it lost the election. What has been happening since the postponement gives clue to us that those in power are jittery. I remember in 2015, when the election was postponed for three weeks, the National Security Adviser was jittery.
“The way and manner the APC leaders talk show they are jittery. How could you explain a president saying those who snatch ballot boxes should be shot when the Electoral Act prescribes two years sentence for the same offence. We are supposed to be in a democracy. I have said it earlier that Buhari is not a democrat. For him now to be directing the Army and the Police to kill ballot box snatchers is terrible, when the law didn’t say so. That we are being ruled by an emperor is terrible.
“The United Nations and European Union are taking records of all these things that can lead to violence and deaths. I think after the elections, people like Malam Nasir el-Rufai may be taken to the International Court of Justice in Hague.”
A member of the Centre for Equity, Comrade Sola Olawale, said the postponement seemed to have given more confidence to PDP and its candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, adding, however, that it seemed to have made APC jittery.
“You can see the lack of composure of APC National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, both on Saturday at the meeting of stakeholders with INEC and at the National Caucus meeting of the party in Abuja on Monday. The leaders of APC were shocked about the postponement and they appeared confused,” Olawale said.
The National Coordinator, Democracy Vanguard, Comrade Adeola Soetan, believed that it was not clear what the chances were before the elections.
“Since I didn’t know what their chances were before the postponement beyond various subjective predictions, one won’t know to what extent the postponement can have effect on their chances. My concern now and which should be the concern of an average patriot is that the postponement should enhance free and fair elections where all votes count,” he said.
ATIKU MAINTAINS LEAD IN THE POIN’T POLL WITH 60%
Meanwhile, a fresh poll initiated on Tuesday by The Point Newspaper, across the six geo-political zones of the country, showed that Atiku Abubakar’s lead margin increased from 52 per cent in the previous week, to 60 per cent.
Though a good number of respondents were unshaken in their resolve to vote for the incumbent President, the results of the poll indicated that Abubakar might have gained more voters, following the postponement of the elections with his widened lead margin.
HOW INEC BOSS MICROMANAGED ELECTION PROCESS – INSIDERS
The ruling APC and rival PDP were apparently going head to head as at last week before INEC announced the postponement of elections at 2.30am on Saturday, 16th February 2019, a day earlier fixed for the exercise.
Later in the day, the INEC boss blamed logistics constraints, including bad weather for its inability to deliver both sensitive and non-sensitive materials to some states, by 8am on election day, a situation which would have meant that if the elections went ahead, the polls would have to be staggered.
However, many were not impressed by INEC’s excuses and were indeed miffed by the fact that the electoral body waited until the last minute before it realised that it was not prepared.
The postponement raised serious debates as to the competence of INEC leadership with accusations and counter accusations by the leading parties, each blaming the other for causing the poll shift in order to influence the outcome.
While election postponements are not new, with similar actions taken in the 2011 and 2015 polls, due to security concerns, this is the first time in recent history that INEC would be unilaterally calling off elections, apparently without consultations with other stakeholders.
Indeed President Buhari, livid about the action, had asked INEC to give explanations to Nigerians on its “incompetence” and promised a full investigation after the elections to find out who was responsible for the mess.
Feelers within INEC, however, indicated that despite logistics problems noticed just before the earlier date, most of the national commissioners of the INEC were still adamant that the exercise must go on, insisting that postponing the elections would create a vote of no confidence situation for the electoral umpire.
However, The Point learnt that the European election monitoring team and other foreign observers, who had posted their men to all the states of the federation got reports from their men that if the elections took place last Saturday with what was on ground, about 10 states would not participate.
They said, as at 9.00pm on Friday, the materials were not on ground and there was no assurance that the materials would arrive in time for the polls.
It was gathered that some of the PDP leaders got the hint about this and they started pressurising foreign observers and some former presidents of African countries that were already in Nigeria that in a presidential election, the whole country was the constituency.
They, therefore, argued that having elections in some states and postponing it in some other states would give room for rigging.
The foreign observers were told of what happened in the supplementary election in Osun last September where the ruling APC overturned the earlier victory enjoyed by the PDP, following an inconclusive result in the first ballot.
Inside sources at INEC said that it was at this time that the foreign observers called on the INEC Chairman and explained to him why he should not go ahead with the election unless he was sure the election would hold in all the states the same day.
Yakubu, it was learnt, started informing the other national commissioners of INEC about the pressure by foreign observers that, for a presidential election, the whole country was a unit and so election must hold in all the states and the Federal Capital Territory on the same day.
Realising that the election might be discredited even before it held, Yakubu immediately summoned a meeting of all the national commissioners of INEC.
At the meeting, it was said that majority of the national commissioners were in support of the postponement of the election, citing the earlier postponement of elections in the country. Though it was gathered that some of the vocal national commissioners of INEC wanted the election to hold but Yakubu refused and said it was better to have a well-accepted poll than to hurry and fail.
It was after the meeting that Yakubu got across to the Presidency before he later addressed the media on the postponement.
Investigations by The Point, however, indicate that the INEC bosses grossly underestimated the logistics requirements for the exercise. Senior figures within the electoral body were apparently not comfortable with the style of the Chairman, Prof. Yakubu, who they said was micromanaging the election process.
A top official, who did not want to be named, said, “We knew at least a week to the election that it would not hold. The chairman insisted that materials be kept till just a few days to the date, when they should have been sent to the states at least before moving to local governments and polling units. The whole issue is a logistics nightmare. We have done this repeatedly and we know. But if you say you don’t trust others, that materials would be compromised and you hold on to it, this is the result you will get.”
Recall that Yakubu, while addressing stakeholders last Saturday at the National Election Collation Centre located at the International Conference Centre (ICC), Abuja, said the decision to postpone the election had nothing to do with security, political influence or inadequate resources.
He attributed the postponement to mainly logistics challenges faced in deploying human and material resources for the conduct of the elections.
The chairman said preparations were also hindered by bad weather in parts of the country, which affected distribution of materials.
Our chances are brighter – PDP
Speaking with The Point, The National Publicity Secretary of the Peoples Democratic Party, who is also the Director, Media and Publicity of the PDP Campaign Organisation, Mr. Kola Ologbondiyan, said the postponement had enhanced the chances of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, saying he will surely win on Saturday.
He said, “You can see, the fear stricken Buhari Presidency has launched a more ferocious plot with INEC and security agencies to ambush the rescheduled elections and foist General Muhammadu Buhari on our nation.
“We are, however, assured that “their evil plots will come to naught.”
Nigerians don’t want PDP back – APC
On his part, the National spokesperson for APC, Mr. Lanre Isa-Onilu, said though the party was affected by the postponement of the election “in the sense that we have spent a lot of money on our programmes before it was announced, this has not, in any manner, affected our supporters across the nation. They are more determined to ensure that PDP does not come back and ruin this country again.”
