The plot by the opposition parties to form a robust coalition and unseat incumbent President Bola Tinubu in 2027 is gaining momentum across Nigeria.
In recent weeks opposition parties’ figures have intensified consultations which have seen the beginning of realignment of political forces.
This is in preparation for the much-talked-about coalition of parties to wrest power from the ruling party in 2027.
Last month, in what appeared to be a major loss to the ruling All Progressives Congress, former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, announced his resignation from the party, decamping to the Social Democratic Party.
The former governor’s defection ended months of speculations about his relationship with the APC after criticising the party severally.
Also, it appears such defections could see the return of Peter Obi, former Labour Party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 general election to the main opposition People’s Democratic Party.
Obi, who is also the leader of the Obidient Movement, a political action group, met recently behind closed doors with the Chairman of People’s Democratic Party Governors Forum, Bala Mohammed.
The former Anambra State governor visited Bauchi to ensure that the PDP governors were on the same page with the calls on him and his running mate on the LP platform, Senator Datti Baba Ahmed, to re-join the PDP.
There were reports that prominent PDP leaders, including the Fourth Republic Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, had been mounting pressures on the former LP presidential candidate to return to PDP to join forces with like-minded people and rescue the country from economic challenges and social unease.
During Obi’s visit, Governor Mohammed had expressed his readiness to collaborate with Obi in forming a robust opposition to challenge what he described as “mediocres” parading as leaders.
There are reports that many opposition leaders, opposition parties and aggrieved leaders in the ruling party would shift camps to build a strong coalition to challenge President Tinubu yet-to-be announced re-election bid in 2027.
Although multiple sources have said that opposition leaders in the country were still discussing the shape of the proposed coalition ahead of 2027 and how the power-sharing arrangement would be, it is clear that considering Obi’s growing popularity especially among young Nigerians, he would play a key role to the success of such a coalition plan.
Some analysts say that the likelihood of Obi to return to the PDP is not totally a surprise considering the fact that the LP has been allegedly hijacked by the agents of the ruling party and may not be a competitive platform in 2027.
“I would not bet on the chances of the opposition. Tinubu seems to have a lot of cards to play at his disposal, and he is experienced and he is a master in terms of political strategy during elections”
Sources say that some aggrieved chieftains of the APC, like Abubakar Malami, former Attorney General of the Federation and Abdullahi Adamu, former national chairman of the APC, among other leaders of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change which merged into the APC in 2015 may dump the APC in the coming months.
Atiku Abubakar, the PDP’s presidential candidate in the 2023 general election has called for alliance of opposition parties against the APC in 2027, and has been consulting like-minded people across the country.
The seeming push by the opposition leaders to form a broad coalition against the APC is an indication that the opposition party leaders have learnt their lessons and are prepared to make serious amends in 2017.
Opposition leaders have no chance of unseating Tinubu – Analysts
Some political analysts are of the opinion that opposition leaders have no chance of unseating Tinubu if they do not come together under one umbrella.
“Whatever name they call it, coalition or alliance, for me, they just have to come together if they want to have any chance against Tinubu. Peter Obi is a big factor, you can’t rule him out, especially with the support he has among the youth. Atiku did well in 2019 because of Peter Obi, for me, he won that election.
“So, if he is returning back to the PDP, fine for them. I think even the El-Rufai that is talking now do not have the political clout compared to Obi, even in the North,” Lanre Lawal, a political analyst, said.
Although there are fears in some quarters that if care is not taken and discussion about who takes what is not agreed on time, such a coalition may fail to yield the desired result, because of in-fighting and ego among the leaders.
Another political analyst, Itoro Samson, said the decision of Obi to return to the PDP could be a wise one, noting that it is apparent standing alone in 2027 may be a fruitless effort.
“Peter Obi’s return to PDP is a good decision, coalition is a wise move also, it is the same thing they did in 2015 that should be done and each of them knows that is the way out.
“My fear is that some may stand as spoilers who can be sponsored by the APC and if the leaders can put their personal ego aside, it will work.
“I believe they should decide who gets what from the beginning so that it does not bring problems later,” he said.
But a university lecturer, Lucky Uduwe, disagrees about the success of such a coalition, noting that the chance of opposition political parties making much impact under President Tinubu is very slim, because he understands such moves perfectly well.
“Tinubu is one leader who believes the winner takes all; so, rather than build strong opposition, members of the opposition political parties will keep running to the APC to seek greener pasture thereby weakening the opposition the more,” Uduwe said.
The defection of the former Kaduna governor to the SDP has continued to generate debates in the polity. While his supporters argue that his move to the SDP was based on principle, critics suggest it was driven by personal ambition, positioning himself for a possible political comeback in 2027.
However, El-Rufai has on several occasions called for the coalition of opposition parties to defeat Tinubu in 2027 and has been publicly seen with Atiku, while both of them seem to be working as one ahead of 2027.
After defecting to the SDP, he called on Obi and other political leaders to join him and unseat the President in 2027.
Expectedly, the APC has brushed off El-Rufai’s departure, with the presidency dismissing it as driven by inordinate ambition.
However, many believe El-Rufai’s exit from the ruling party carries deep political undercurrents that could reshape the dynamics ahead of the 2027 elections, considering that he was instrumental in the formation of the APC and a staunch ally of former President Muhammadu Buhari, observers say El-Rufai’s departure raises critical questions that could come back to hunt the ruling party.
Many political observers note that El-Rufai’s defection could have ripple effects.
“Although he may not command a nationwide political structure, his ability to shape narratives, especially in northern politics, should not be underestimated,” a political analyst, Temitope Musowo, said.
He stressed that his defection from the APC is not just about one man leaving a party, but a reflection of deeper tensions within the APC.
“Since taking power in 2023, Tinubu has had to balance competing interests within the ruling party, from former Buhari loyalists to his people. The cracks within the APC are becoming more visible, and if not managed properly, they could deepen before 2027”, Musowo added.
But a public affairs commentator, Tunde Balogun, said the former governor leaving the APC at this time can be considered of no effect because his political relevance even in his own state has been greatly reduced.
“In 2014, it was concluded early enough that at least 70 percent of the stakeholders were working for the emergence of General Muhammadu Buhari. The caucus led by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the then ACN had that understanding, just like those of Buhari’s CPC, the ANPP caucus and the same was true of the nPDP members who were under Saraki’s leadership”
He noted that this is because many people even in Northern Nigeria believe that his relevance outside political office is very little.
“His goodwill is very little and no longer considered a political heavyweight, especially considering what his successor has done in Kaduna,” he said.
Coalition to unseat Tinubu in 2027 won’t work – Osuntokun
In the same vein, a former Director General of the Labour Party Presidential Campaign Council, Akin Osuntokun, said he does not think a coalition being formed by some political leaders to unseat President Tinubu in 2027 will work.
Osuntokun, a former Managing Director of the News Agency of Nigeria, argued that alliances were not new in Nigeria and that he did not see the coalition working against the President.
He described Tinubu as an experienced politician and strategist, saying the President knew how to navigate the murky waters of politics.
According to him, Tinubu has power of incumbency and will use it to his advantage if he decides to seek re-election in 2027.
“If he (Tinubu) could win an election (against all odds) when he was not President, you can imagine now when he is the President.
“I would not bet on the chances of the opposition. Tinubu seems to have a lot of cards to play at his disposal, and he is experienced and he is a master in terms of political strategy during elections.
“So, I would not bet against him. However, my advice for the opposition leaders coming together is to pick a presidential candidate from the South.
“If they pick a candidate from the North, they are going to run against the obstacle of the North South rotational presidency principle,” Osuntokun said.
According to him, Tinubu clearly has far more capacity to mobilise for the election than any other individual or group.
“The opposition leaders have Tinubu as a formidable opponent, who is going to ensure that he goes all out and wins the election,” Osuntokun said.
He, however, said there was nothing wrong with forming a coalition to challenge the government at the centre so long as the participants would be faithful and committed to the goals of the alliance.
“For any political party, to effectively challenge the power at the centre, it requires coming together to form a grand party, in order to stand a better chance of having their objective being realised.
“So, to that extent, they (opposition leaders and parties) are right and correct with their planned formation of a coalition,” he added.
He cited the APC’s victory against Peoples Democratic Party in 2015 an example of coalitions that had worked in the country’s political history.
Osuntokun, however, warned that the coalition might hit the rocks if the participants fail to agree on the means or method to select its presidential candidate.
He said that the presidential ambitions of the certain figures in the coalition could affect their willingness to reach a compromise.
“So, this is going to be a test of the durability and potency of the coalition,” he said.
He advised the coalition leaders, especially those from the north, to shelve their personal ambitions and work for the emergence of a southern candidate to ensure the success of the coalition.
“If the party ticket goes to a politician from the north, like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, he is going to be running against the principle or the convention that had been adopted since 1999: the power rotation between the North and South.
“So, he is going to violate that convention, and to that extent, he is going to lose support from the intelligentsia, and it will be a hard sell,” he said.
It’s a coalition of prospective presidential/vice presidential aspirants — Shekarau
Also, a former Governor of Kano State, Ibrahim Shekarau has described the coming together of top opposition figures as a coalition of prospective aspirants who can’t unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
In a statement signed by his spokesperson Sule Ya’u Sule, Shekarau said it is unfortunate that most people do not know that the claimed coalition move has nothing to do with the major opposition parties like PDP and LP.
“It is so far a mere coalition of prospective Presidential/Vice Presidential aspirants. None of the principal actors is carrying the leadership of his party along. More so, the ‘gang-up’ of individuals, no matter their ‘big names’, can never be a ‘merger’, because, by law, only registered parties can formally and officially merge,” said Shekarau.
He explained that the first political merger in Nigeria was in 2013, when four registered parties, namely, ANPP, ACN, CPC and APGA melted together to form the APC.
“You see, APC was an assortment of registered opposition political parties that were already fully on ground, with elected state governors, state and National Assembly members and local governments, as well as large grassroots followers. These were the factors that even attracted some of the then PDP Governors and legislators to also run to join the APC. It is therefore wrong for anyone to assume that the 2013 merger that produced a strong opposition in APC is comparable to today’s ‘coalition’ of ‘aspirants’,” insisted Shekarau.
While reacting to River’s issue, Shekarau said what happened at the National Assembly on March 20, 2025, in respect of the ‘State of Emergency’ in Rivers State, has exposed the characters in the ‘coalition’, he added that the coalition had no control over the opposition parties in the National Assembly.
Shekarau reaffirmed that no amount of noise making, or coming together, by individual characters (aspirants) in the name of opposition will make any impact at elections, until and unless the full structure of leadership at all levels of the opposition parties are carried along.
He concluded that it is still not too late, as he believes with the ‘correct’ vision, mission and focus, plus genuine sense of righteousness, the narrative in the opposition parties can be changed within this year, 2025 for success in the 2027 elections.
No rallying point for presidential contest
However, sources keeping a close eye on the development in the coalition have said that the undoing of the current coalition was its failure to address the key issue of the rallying point for the 2027 presidential contest straightaway.
It was learnt that the coalition proponents failed to define the clear direction of things unlike the 2014 example.
“In 2014, it was concluded early enough that at least 70 percent of the stakeholders were working for the emergence of General Muhammadu Buhari. The caucus led by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the then ACN had that understanding, just like those of Buhari’s CPC, the ANPP caucus and the same was true of the nPDP members who were under Saraki’s leadership.
So, it was easy to manage the outcome of the primaries held in Lagos,” a source said, adding that proponents of the mega party option in 2027 left the matter on the table, preferring to address it after the party has been formed.
A source also said that unlike the 2014 experience, when the likes of Bukola Saraki, Senator Aminu Tambuwal, former Rivers governor, Rotimi Amaechi, and others joined forces with the ACN/CPC coalition to undermined the ruling People’s Democratic Party and when they were able to create a huge momentum to form a platform that appealed to the young and old categories of politicians, the current coalition was taking things for granted.
‘You don’t leave a raging fire on your rooftop and go to sleep,’ a source said.
Another source said that proponents are also missing the likes of Senator Bukola Saraki and his fellow compatriot from the North Central, Senator David Mark. Whereas Saraki’s nPDP attempted to swing the majority in the senate in favour of the nPDP, Mark resisted and ensured a balance in the National Assembly. Such a display of game of wits and strategy is missing in this build-up, a source said.
A source knowledgeable about the development said: “We must realise that one of the game changers for the 2014 efforts was Bukola Saraki whose network, mobilisation skills, and popularity with the organised private sector are well known. They thought that it was all about his presidential ambition, when he led the nPDP, but he came out early enough to state that he was only a part of the solution to the problems of the country. He joined forces with other stakeholders to produce a presidential candidate who supplanted the incumbent.”
The coalition ran into a bad wind early in the day when a spat between Sule Lamido and El-Rufai appeared to have dampened the spirits. The former Kaduna governor said in an interview that elders like Lamido and co should join forces with him in the SDP, but Lamido interpreted that to mean an insult, an indication that the elders’ caucus may not be at home with the former governor.
Indeed, questions are being raised about the viability of the coalition and the absence of anchor persons with technical abilities, like Saraki displayed in 2014.
For example, a source questioned how the new coalition would get the much-needed funds from the private sector without a known linkman that sector can trust. How would the coalition escape INEC’s vigilance? How will other stakeholders believe that it is worth coming together when it could happen that one of the forces could hijack the structure like it happened to the APC after Buhari’s emergence? The source pointed to the travails of Saraki as the President of the Senate under Buhari’s presidency as an example of the things slowing down the pace of the planned coalition.
Sources said that going by such experiences, politicians are usually circumspect in launching out full throttle.
They argued that in the build-up to the 2015 election, aside from Tinubu and Amaechi, who played critical roles, Saraki was the other party leader who can creditably share the spoils of that success. Sources have said that while funds from Tinubu and Amaechi came in handy at the initial stage of the party’s formation, Saraki was said to have stepped in at the most critical stages when the party appeared stranded and vulnerable.
At one instance, a source said that following the postponement of the 2015 election, the party looked stranded, Saraki, was able to consult with a top banker, who through the organised private sector, was able to facilitate the needed bailouts for the opposition.
Stakeholders argued that the mega party proponents have failed to convince Saraki to join their fold. A source said that the former Senate President was of the view that the PDP remains the only party that could provide the needed opposition come 2027. Right now, sources said that the duo of Mark and Saraki prefer to siddon look as we speak.
Whether the opposition elements would pull through the mega party option remains in the works, but there is no doubt that emerging developments are already dampening the initial excitement in the
camps.