Barring any last-minute change of heart, the President of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, will toss his hat into the ring for the office of President in the 2027 general elections. But the blowback from some controversial political issues may mar his chances of clinching victory when the country goes to the polls.
The former Lagos State Governor’s handling of the various issues, whether it is in supporting or opposing them, is viewed by many analysts to be a litmus test of his desire to solve the country’s problems and stamp his authority on the polity.
However, because politics is unpredictable, Tinubu may be forced to stand on the precipice, with the difficult choice of which path to take in ameliorating the consequences of any wrong turn he may have taken when he was dealing with all the situations.
NNAMDI KANU’S CONTINUED INCARCERATION
First on the list of controversial issues the President has been grappling with is the continued incarceration of the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra, Nnamdi Kanu.
The 57-year-old Kanu, who is agitating for the creation of the State of Biafra in the South East and parts of other regions beyond, was arrested in Kenya on June 27, 2021, by the government of the immediate past President of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari, and has been in detention since then.
Many Nigerians, especially those from the South East region of the country – where Kanu hails from – have pleaded with Tinubu to release the separatist leader, but the President has so far refused to acknowledge their concerns.
Kanu has also been caught up in an endless court trial that has failed to reach a conclusion and during his last appearance at the Federal High Court in Abuja, where he is being prosecuted for terrorism by the Nigerian government; he accused the trial judge, Binta Nyako, of bias.
Kanu also made unsubstantiated allegations that a then-retreated Nyako, who had adjourned the case, insisted on presiding over his trial because of ongoing corruption cases against her husband, Murtala Nyako, and son.
According to Kanu, Nyako was told that if she convicts him, her family would be let off.
Some analysts aver that Kanu’s release will bring peace to the South East and address the concerns linked with the egregious activities of unknown gunmen who are terrorizing the six Southeastern states.
At the weekend, the Chief Judge of the Federal High Court in Abuja, Justice John Tsoho, reassigned the case of Kanu to another judge.
This development was disclosed in a statement signed by Kanu’s lead counsel, Aloy Ejimakor, on Saturday in Abuja.
On February 20, Kanu, through his legal team, wrote to the Chief Justice of Nigeria, Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun, seeking her intervention in the matter.
Ejimakor noted in the statement that on Friday, March 7, the legal team received two separate letters regarding Kanu’s case.
One letter was authored by the Chief Justice of Nigeria while the other came from the Chief Judge.
The statement read, “Yesterday, before the legal team conducted our routine visitation to Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, we received two separate official letters regarding his case. The letters are momentous and somewhat pyrrhic.
“One letter was from the Honourable Chief Justice of Nigeria, responding to a recent letter we had written to her, seeking her prompt administrative intervention (as the administrative head of the Nigerian judiciary) on the matter of a proper and lawful reassignment of Mazi Nnamdi Kanu’s case, following the recusal of the judge that was conducting it.
“The other letter was from the Chief Judge of the Federal High Court, informing us that the case has been reassigned to another judge of the Federal High Court.”
Ejimakor stated that upon receiving the letters, Kanu instructed his legal team to publicly convey his sincere gratitude to the CJN for her sound administrative discretion and the promptness with which she responded to their request.
“He also expressed his profound appreciation to members of the general public who publicly supported our righteous demands that Mazi Nnamdi Kanu’s case be reassigned to another judge, as the law demands.
“To be clear, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu has always been ready to stand trial because he is firmly convinced of his innocence. However, the perverse events of the past six months (from September 2024, when the recusal happened) posed significant dangers to his constitutional rights, particularly his right to a fair and speedy hearing. It was in light of this that we resorted to taking extraordinary measures to ensure that his case is properly reassigned and conducted by the law.
“Now that the authorities have taken the initial steps to uphold the law, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu and his legal team will take stock and focus on zealous preparation for his defence,,” Ejimakor stated.
A political analyst, Collins Ugorji, told The Point that the majority of Southeasterners would not vote for Tinubu if Kanu was not released by the government and all charges against him were dropped.
“But the President must realise that Akpabio is now a hated man in Nigeria because of the sexual harassment allegations hanging around his neck. And if the courts indict him, the Presidency or the President himself must find the voice to do the needful by condemning the Senate President”
Ugorji said that the President would do the All Progressives Congress a world of good if Kanu were to walk out of Kuje correctional centre, a free man.
According to Ugorji, the IPOB leader can give Tinubu a fighting chance against the Labour Party’s candidate-in-waiting, Peter Obi, who is adored by the Igbo of the South East.
Ugorji said, “I may not be too sure about how Tinubu will fare in the South East if Kanu is released from prison but I can tell you without batting an eyelid that the President would perform woefully if Kanu was not released before the election.
“Kanu supporting Tinubu in 2027 will not only be a plus for the APC but also give advantage to the APC who will be looking to capture more states in the region.
“Releasing Kanu will make a lot of sense, but let’s continue to watch the President’s next move. The man is a strategist and will eventually do what is right on the Kanu issue.”
AKPABIO, AKPOTI-UDUAGHAN FEUD
President Tinubu’s support of Nigeria’s Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, is legendary but currently undergoing a strain test because of the former Akwa Ibom State governor’s seemingly penchant for getting into “trouble.”
Akpabio’s tenure has been fraught with controversies, the latest being his running battle with the Senator representing Kogi Central Senatorial District, Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan, over seating arrangement in the Red Chamber of the Senate and her sexual harassment allegations against him.
Akpoti-Uduaghan had cried foul over the new seating arrangement in the Senate and did not take kindly to Akpabio reassigning her to a seat she apparently loathed.
Despite these low points, Tinubu, from day one, was always okay with the idea of Akpabio becoming the leader of the 10th senate and even continues to show the former Minister of the Niger Delta that he will never walk alone.
“Having Senate President Akpabio, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, on my side is enough for me to succeed, and we will succeed,” Tinubu had gone on record as praising Akpabio.
When the Senate President was incurring the wrath of Nigerians because of some unguarded utterances he made, the President stood solidly behind him, blocking out the cacophony of deafening resignation calls against his adopted political godson.
And this year, Akpoti-Uduaghan’s accusations did not leave any chink on Akpabio’s armour and the initial deafening silence by the Presidency provided food for thought and reminded Nigerians that Akpabio is still in the President’s good books.
Last week, Akpoti-Uduaghan was suspended for six months after the Senate disciplined her for misconduct while Akpabio, to the chagrin of her supporters, continues to enjoy the President’s unalloyed support.
A current affairs analyst, Ifeoma Ogbonna, said a politician like Akpabio is indispensable to the President because of the huge benefits he can bring for the APC in the South South, Akpabio’s region.
In Ogbonna’s assessment, Akpobio is usually said to provide a rubber stamp because he is, almost all the time, on the same page with the President.
“Akpabio used to be a member of the People’s Democratic Party but joined the APC in 2018 because he wanted to be the President of the Senate. And luckily for him, it was the right move.
“Today, Akpabio is a Tinubu man and from all indications, the President is keeping faith with him.
“Akpabio is very easy to work with. He doesn’t appear to me like somebody who would betray his friends. The President knows this and that is why the support has not waned.
“But the President must realise that Akpabio is now a hated man in Nigeria because of the sexual harassment allegations hanging around his neck. And if the courts indict him, the Presidency or the President himself must find the voice to do the needful by condemning the Senate President.”
OBASA AND LAGOS ASSEMBLY BROUHAHA
The third political issue that will have a lot of bearing on Tinubu’s performance in 2027, especially in Lagos State, is the controversial removal and reinstatement of the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa.
In a bold move, 32 lawmakers from the State Assembly kicked Obasa out of his coveted seat when the Agege Constituency I representative was enjoying a bit of family time in the United States of America.
In what could be likened to a coup d’état that startled even keen observers of Lagos politics, the lawmakers had scrambled Obasa’s deputy, Mojisola Meranda, into the speakership spotlight as she became the new kid on the block.
The 32 lawmakers also made certain that they splattered the minds of Lagosians with a list of Obasa’s “sins”.
Obasa’s alleged disrespect for Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, and his alleged allocation of N117 billion to construct a gate, for example, were damning enough to turn heads, but it was the lawmakers who hit a bump.
They were moving too fast and did not carry Tinubu, a former Lagos State Governor, along and it backfired.
Obasa came back from the U.S. and briefly waged a vendetta against Meranda, and shockingly, won the ensuing feud that erupted without breaking a sweat.
It turned out that Obasa, love him or hate him, is still the trump card the President might play in 2027; his political value to the President cannot be wished away.
Obasa is now back to where he belongs and it was a stroke of luck that Meranda’s fervent prayers, when she briefly sat in the former’s office after she temporarily held the reins of power, was not answered in the light of Tinubu’s influence.
A political analyst Muyiwa Bello told The Point “Personally, I view Obasa as an emperor; however the allegations brought against him are laughable.
“Obasa is a reliable foot soldier Tinubu can count on, especially in Lagos State where the opposition wants to take the state.
“Meranda will not be able to stand the heat or weld the kind of power that can keep Tinubu’s opponents at bay. She is soft-hearted and can’t measure up to what Obasa will bring to the table for Tinubu in Lagos.
“As for the 32 members of the Assembly who allegedly initially disagreed with Tinubu on Obasa’s reinstatement, do they think they can survive in Lagos if Tinubu fails there?
“We may not all like or agree with what transpired in Lagos, but some of us see what is happening behind the curtain of Lagos politics.”
