BY AUGUSTINE AVWODE
For the People’s Democratic Party, it was trouble foretold. Unfortunately, there was nobody skilled in the art of political clairvoyance within its fold, or so it seems, to correctly interpret the handwriting on the wall. The party was faced with a very important decision but handled it with less objectivity and more of pre-conceived sentiments. The party’s choice has now led inexorably to the current seemingly intractable conflict buffeting the major opposition party in the country.
During its 96th meeting in Abuja on May 11, 2022, the party’s National Executive Committee voted to jettison its age-long principle of rotating the Presidency between the North and the South. It rather threw the presidential contest ‘open to all zones’. It was a decision that dealt a terrible blow to a well-established tradition in the party over the years. A tradition predicated on the fabled principles of justice, equity and fairness. And for effect, the party caused the principle to be enshrined in its constitution to give it some legal teeth.
The NEC also at the same meeting, named former President of the Senate, David Mark, as the chairman of the planning committee of the May 28-29 national convention in Abuja where the presidential flag bearer for the 2023 general election was nominated.
But the party, in jettisoning its time-tested nationally accepted policy, inadvertently set the stage for the present, almost implacable disagreement it has been contending with in the past two and a half months. Many party loyalists and political observers had looked forward to a NEC that would boldly step forward and reverse the leaked recommendation of its zoning committee that the presidency be thrown open. Sadly, that did not happen.
“After a very extensive deliberation NEC aligned with the recommendation of the PDP National Zoning Committee that the Presidential Election should now be left open,” PDP spokesman, Debo Ologunagba, told newsmen back in May.
He went on to add that “The Party would also work towards consensus candidates where possible.”
The decision did not come to many as a surprise. Before the NEC meeting, the two most forceful tendencies in the party engaged in a fierce struggle for the soul of the party. The first was the need to do fidelity to the provisions of the constitution and forge ahead with zoning the presidency to the South. The second was the imperative of settling for and upholding the argument that espoused winning back the presidency it lost in 2015. Proponents of this tendency argued that to achieve that, the party should allow all comers from all geo-political zones to vie for the presidency with a view to picking the most popular and nationally acceptable of all the aspirants.
While proponents of the latter further argued that only a candidate from the North can give the party an enhanced opportunity to win back the right to occupy Aso Rock, the seat of the government of the federation, those who supported the former asserted that the mood of the nation clearly favoured a candidate from the Southern part of the country after what would have been a cumulative eight years of the current President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration which birthed on May 29, 2015.
Before the stamp of approval by the party’s NEC on the decision of the zoning committee, signs that the PDP may be heading for troubled waters had emerged. Politicians from within the PDP and associations of ethnic nationalities and geo-political zones were clear on what they expected from the party.
In early April, leaders of Southern and Middle Belt groups took umbrage at the leaked decision of the party to settle for an ‘open contest’ in the selection of the party’s presidential candidate for 2023. The leaders threatened to work against the party if a Northerner was fielded.
Southern stakeholders, including the Southern Governors’ Forum, had mounted a powerful campaign of power shift to the South. Curiously, while the All Progressives Congress governors from the South were unanimously resolute in pursuit of the agreement by the Southern Governors Forum, their PDP counterparts approached it with halfhearted commitment as events later showed that individual interests and pursuits supplanted the common resolution.
“It was in the hope that the party’s Constitution would not be violated soon that stakeholders from the South vigorously pushed for the zoning of the position of national chairman to the North. They had hoped that the development would pave the way for the emergence of a Southerner as a presidential candidate in 2023”
A potential red flag
The spontaneous reactions to the leaked recommendation of Governor Samuel Ortom-led 37-member zoning committee set up by the PDP were a potential red flag that the party disregarded.
Traditionally, the region that holds the office of the national chairman does not produce the party’s presidential flag bearer. It was in the hope that the party’s Constitution would not be violated soon that stakeholders from the South vigorously pushed for the zoning of the position of national chairman to the North. They had hoped that the development would pave the way for the emergence of a Southerner as a presidential candidate in 2023.
Disappointed, some of the groups in the vanguard of power shift, including the Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum, Pan Niger Delta Forum, Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndigbo and Middle Belt Forum, spoke loudly against the decision of the party.
Leader of the Middle Belt Forum, Bitrus Pogu, declared that while PDP’s decision was left for the party, their position was reached at a January 22, 2022 meeting where they declared that they would not support any political party that does not field a Southerner as a presidential candidate, remaining the same.
“We believe that after eight years of President Buhari, the presidency should go to the South by 2023. We also say any political party that zones its ticket to the North, we will work against that party and we will campaign against that party. Our position has not changed. So, it is up to the PDP leadership to know what to do.”
Also, the spokesman for Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba socio-cultural organisation, Sola Ebiseni, repeating almost the same sentiment, said “I don’t want to talk about any political party. Let them do their worst, but we in the Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum have already expressed our views. We have no power to compel any party but we have spoken to the people,” he said.
Reacting, the spokesman for Ohanaeze Ndigbo, the apex socio-cultural organisation of the Igbo, Alex Ogbonnia, categorically stressed the need to allow the South East to produce the president in 2023.
“We will not relent in talking about the implications of giving the presidency to the South East. You cannot have unity, peace and sustainable national development without equity and justice. If you don’t have equity and justice, Nigeria cannot stand,” he said.
He added that “Throwing the ticket open is well and good because it does not exclude the people of the Southeast, but if ultimately they (PDP) gives it to the North, we will no longer support them. If they give it to the North thinking that it is a way of getting more votes, we will not support them in the election.
“For the purpose of clarity, rotation and zoning principle was ingrained into the PDP Constitution in 2009. Article 7 (2) (c) of the PDP Constitution states: ‘In pursuance of the principle of equity, justice and fairness, the party shall adhere to the policy of rotation and zoning of the party and public elective offices, and it shall be enforced by the appropriate executive committee at all levels.
“Such unscrupulous violation of the zoning principle that has been well entrenched in the PDP Constitution simply changes the rules of the game to deprive Ndigbo the opportunity to produce a president for Nigeria,” Ogbonna had said then in a statement.
For the record, it was not all members of the Governor Ortom–led committee that bought into the idea of throwing the ticket open.
For instance, the former governor of Ekiti State and a presidential aspirant of the PDP up to a point, Ayo Fayose, also faulted the party for dumping its zoning principle for the presidential ticket.
Fayose said the party was wrong to have left the race open to all aspirants, noting that southern members of the party did not contest for the presidential ticket at the 2019 convention held in Port Harcourt because it was zoned to the North.
He said it would be wrong to continue to skew the system to favour the North until it wins for the party. He also kicked against the consensus option as a method for picking the presidential candidate of the party, declaring that he will not step down for anybody.
“The more reason I obtained the nomination form today is not to give the impression that we are not ready because (somebody) might come back to tell us it is a southern affair.
“Who tells you it is the north that will give us a vote? People have been saying that let the people who can win get the ticket, who tells you who can win? Everybody on Election Day will win his own ward and state. We will all work together and support whoever wins the primary. Stop telling me it is somebody that can win for PDP,” he had argued.
But he soon resigned from the committee.
In a letter he addressed to Governor Ortom, he said “I pray the outcome will bring understanding, peace and stability to our party and our country at large.”
Unfortunately for the PDP, the decision has so far failed to “bring understanding, peace and stability” to the party.
Efforts by Ortom to paper up the decision didn’t yield any substantial result. He had said “As far as the committee was concerned, there were arguments that the presidential ticket should go to the South. Some said it should go to the North. There were others who were of the opinion that it should be thrown open to allow the best candidate that would deliver good governance and make Nigerians feel like human beings again, contest.
“At the end of the day, the most important thing to the PDP is what the party can do to bring the economy and security situation back to normalcy, because if something drastic is not done about the present situation in the country, a time will come when even the Presidential Villa and other government houses will be taken over by terrorists,” Fayose had explained.
The after-effect
In reaching that all-important decision back in May, it would seem the NEC did not correctly figure out the potential consequences of what was on the table. From all indications, whatever the party is suffering today can be rightly said to be the direct fallout of the failure of NEC to properly think through such a sensitive and highly emotional subject.
Less than two weeks after the NEC’s decision and just about four days to the national convention, former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, considered to be one of the leading contenders for the ticket as at then, suddenly dumped the party and withdrew from the race.
Obi in a letter titled “Resignation from Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and withdrawal from the Presidential Contest,” which he addressed to Ayu, dated May 24, 2022, said he had already notified the party Chairman at the ward level.
While Obi refused to say much on the possible reasons for his dumping the party, his allusion to “recent developments” in the party spoke volumes. He wrote among other things that “It has been a great honour to contribute to nation-building efforts through our party. Unfortunately, recent developments within our party make it practically impossible to continue participating and making such constructive contributions.
“Our national challenges are deep-seated and require that we each make profound sacrifices towards rescuing our country. My commitment to rescuing Nigeria remains firm, even if the route differs.”
But having announced its decision, the party went on to hold its national convention and the presidential nomination election.
However, two and a half months after the party’s presidential primary, the effect of that decision has remained an implacable albatross on its neck. In fact, some commentators are claiming the current crisis continues to exhibit potential threats that can sink the ship of the party ahead of the 2023 general election as the ‘combatants’ stick tenaciously to their guns.
“In reaching that all-important decision back in May, it would seem the NEC did not correctly figure out the potential consequences of what was on the table. From all indications, whatever the party is suffering today can be rightly said to be the direct fallout of the failure of NEC to properly think through such a sensitive and highly emotional subject”
Poor crisis management
Very much unlike what was known of the PDP as being adept at crisis management; the party’s leadership has curiously displayed uncommon poor management skills in the extant case. With the result of the primary election, it was expected that nerves would become frail because of a bruised ego. Importantly, electoral defeats are not easy pills to swallow and they need special and immediate attention that combines statesmanship, diplomacy and a willingness to ditch the usual ‘winner takes all mentality’ so as to properly assuage bruised egos.
This, however, was not to be. All those time-tested approaches to reconciliation were snubbed. In their place were chest thumping and back-slapping that were accompanied by controversial conduct by principal actors, basking in the euphoria of success to the point of almost forgetting that the party was yet to win the right to occupy Aso Rock.
National chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, displayed what till date remains inexplicable to many party loyalists. Ayu had described Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, as the “Hero of the convention,” a comment that rankled many party members, especially those in the camp of the runner up, Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State.
Without doing much to ensure a reasonable reconciliation, the party proceeded to name its vice presidential candidate in the person of Delta State Governor, Ifeanyi Okowa. This all the more polarized the party as expectations that Governor Wike would be announced as running mate fell flat on the floor. For more than a month, the atmosphere of ‘it doesn’t matter’ reigned in the party, thus pushing the leading opposition to the brink.
The Wike factor
What started as a disgruntled feeling by an individual who lost a shadow election, quickly metamorphosed into a massive force after two and a half months. No thanks to the Wike factor.
The Rivers State governor has expectedly made himself the main issue in the party today. Over the years, he has shown such strong traits that emerged as a force that cannot be overlooked in the affairs of the party. He has now clearly established that he must be placated and at his own terms or else the party and the presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, should be ready to take responsibility for whatever befalls the party in 2023.
Wike, who has been busy inaugurating projects across his state, deliberately sidelined chieftains of his party, particularly, those who are not on his side. He preferred inviting top chieftains of the ruling APC from across the country to his state for the inaugurations. The decision has fueled speculations that he was about to dump the party, an allegation he has refuted severally.
Speaking last week, Wike threw more barbs in the direction of Atiku, warning that he should not be blamed if the PDP should lose the presidential contest.
“I have kept quiet and busy delivering the dividends of democracy for my party to win the election; people are busy plotting how they will win the election, but others are busy trying to see how they will lose the election.
“If they lose the election nobody should call my name. I have told the candidate, you will lose this election and you will win this election because of the people around you. Anybody who knows me knows that if I was going to court, I would have gone to court within two weeks after the primaries because it is a pre-election matter and after two weeks you can’t go to court.
“The legal adviser of the party called me and I told him you know there is mischief going on; you know me very well if I am going to court it is not those kinds of lawyers I would have used and I don’t even know the lawyers. I want to tell the candidate (Atiku) that it is his group that is doing all these things. Let the world hear.
“They are the ones plotting all these things thinking that they would spoil my name. You cannot. The other day they said I removed all PDP flags in Government House. We are supposed to be talking about how you will win the election, not about these people. They are not doing him any favour, rather they are trying to make him not win the election. But if that is what they want, I wish them good luck.
“But after my commissioning of projects, nobody should say Wike has started. I have been on my own; they are looking for my trouble. Allow peace to reign. If you say your mother will not sleep, you too will not sleep at the appropriate time.”
At the weekend, efforts to get the two warring parties to the reconciliation table continued with little or no appreciable success. A meeting of representatives of Atiku and those of Wike held in Port Harcourt as insisted on by Wike.
The meeting was held behind closed doors at the Government House. While Atiku’s delegation was led by Adamawa Governor, Ahmadu Fintiri, Wike’s team was led by former Attorney General of the Federation, Mohammed Adoke. Others in the negotiating team included Adamu Waziri, former minister of police affairs and Eyitayo Jegede, former PDP governorship candidate in Ondo State for Atiku. Then there were Donald Duke, former governor of Cross River and Olusegun Mimiko, former governor of Ondo State.
Fintiri did not give out much. He merely said discussions have been opened to broker peace. “We are aware that Nigerians are anxious and waiting for PDP to take over the government in 2023. We have met as leaders, members of the same political family and we have opened the discussion, work is in progress and we will continue.
“At the end of the day, we will broker peace and we will unify the party and Nigerians,” were his words.
Observers say his choice of future tense meant a lot.
From the side of Wike, nothing much was on offer too. Mimiko said members of the committees will meet again for subsequent discussions.
“We have agreed that there is a need for us to enhance unity within our party. This is a reconciliation process, there are some issues out there which need further deliberation when the committees meet again,” he said.
While the PDP is reeling under the yoke of a bad decision, the ruling All Progressives Congress has moved several miles ahead in terms of preparation for the 2023 general elections. Unless something urgent is done now by the PDP, it could find it difficult to pull together and form a united house when campaigns begin effectively in September, 2022. But whether the party will be able to pull back from the brink to which it has found itself now or not, only time will tell.
