The plan by the various opposition political parties in Nigeria to present a united front against Nigeria’s ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, in the 2027 presidential election, may not see the light of day anytime soon.
The idea of this coalition became the main talking point of political discourses following the victory of Bola Tinubu, the then-candidate of the APC in the February 25, 2023 presidential election and the affirmation of his victory later in October by the Supreme Court.
The following month, Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of the People’s Democratic Party in the election, called on other opposition parties, notably the Labour Party and the New Nigeria Peoples Party, to start thinking about a coalition they could form, since it was the best bet for beating the APC.
So, back in May 2024 when the news was broken to Nigerians that Atiku and Peter Obi, the LP’s 2023 presidential candidate, had a meeting at the former’s house, expectations were high that the initiatives that would transform into a coalition were finally in the offing.
Since the meeting, a couple of opposition bigwigs, like Ibrahim Abdullahi, the deputy national spokesperson of the PDP, have made bold statements about the coalition.
Abdullahi said in September 2024 that the three prominent opposition leaders, including Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP, were engaged in a potential merger discussion ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Last week, however, Obi jolted many political observers when he spoke concerning the planned coalition on the sidelines of the National Conference on Strengthening Democracy in Nigeria held in Abuja.
The former Anambra State Governor said he was not interested in joining any coalition that was solely focused on seizing power.
“Whether we are going to form a coalition (or not)… let’s talk about the future of the country. But often we abandon the country and begin to talk about power grab,” Obi said when asked if he would join a coalition.
“I’m not interested in any coalition for the purpose of taking power. It is about discussing Nigeria. How do we have to care about securing the future of Nigerians?” he added.
Although Obi later clarified that he was not against coalition, analysts say he inadvertently sent a distressing signal to even his supporters who support coalition that the idea was most likely experiencing some hiccups and still not a done deal at this stage of the political cycle.
“They rarely bow to their traditional rulers, much less an ordinary man. So, I won’t be surprised if Obi refuses to bow to Atiku or any other opposition politician, to determine who will be the number one among them”
And expectedly, Nigerians have rightfully begun to ask why the plan to form a coalition is stalling, leading analysts to proffer answers to why opposition political figures are not on the same page….yet.
TRUST ISSUES
It is true there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics, only permanent interests, but even at that, the two biggest opposition politicians, Atiku and Obi, could be experiencing trust issues.
The heavyweight politicians have been giving Nigerians the impression that things are cozy between them, and are also known to support the other against the government.
But try as they may, the unseen distrust, analysts say, will not go away easily.
Obi was Atiku’s running mate in the 2019 presidential election but had decided to run against his former boss in 2023, denying the Wazirin Adamawa the pleasure of accruing maximum votes in some parts of Nigeria.
A political analyst, Damion Ugorji, said, “Whoever thinks that there are no trust issues between Obi and Atiku is just playing.
“Atiku knows that Obi is on the rise and he is on the decline.
“Atiku also knows that Obi is younger than him and that he (Atiku) will be above eighty by 2027.
“Who will see all these and still say all is well?”
As 2027 approaches, Ugorji says the trust issues will still resurface and possibly make the two candidates run on separate platforms again.
WHO WILL BE MANDATED TO LEAD THE OPPOSITION?
The mandate to sack the APC from Aso Rock Villa is a huge responsibility and the opposition parties are yet to reach a consensus on who would lead their charge.
Atiku is by far the most experienced candidate and could even be the richest among the lot, but to the opposition now, desperate times call for desperate measures.
Atiku has not been lucky at the poll and there are fears the chain of defeat he has tasted in the electoral battlefields may be extended in 2027.
Naturally, the next in line to Atiku, based on the results of the last election, should be Obi, but Kwankwaso has never shied away from voicing his displeasure over Obi’s potential emergence as the opposition’s point man.
“I think Obi should be given that mandate,” began Andrew Dokubo, a current affairs analyst.
“Obi is the man who seems to be making inroads everywhere.
“North, South, West and East, plus Middle belt, he has become a darling to many.
“I think what will help Obi if he wants to achieve this feat are the other parties, excluding PDP and NNPP, rallying behind him.
“Those other parties can turn any unfavorable situation around for Obi,” he explained.
ARGUMENT OVER NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN PRESIDENCY
According to analysts, the argument by the opposition about which part of Nigeria should take over in 2027 from Tinubu is also contributing to why the opposition is not making headway yet with their planned coalition.
President Tinubu, a Southerner, will spend four years by 2027 and the opposition has not fully agreed on which part of the country his replacement will come from.
Some members of the opposition, who are either from the North or South, want candidates from their part of the country to complete the South’s eight years after Tinubu’s first four years.
A Lagos State PDP Chieftain and former member, Atiku Abubakar 2023 Presidential Campaign Committee, Adetokunbo Pearse, falls in this category.
“We need somebody from the South to complete these four years, to complete the eight years of the southern presidency so that we can rescue Nigeria,” Pearse said.
Many of those in the North have begged to disagree.
A Kaduna-based analyst, Nura Wanbai, told The Point, “Let the best man from the opposition win, and it doesn’t matter whether he is from the North or South, after all they have made a mess of rotational presidency.
“But it does not mean that I will not choose a Northern politician in 2027.
“However, this question around the Northern or Southern presidency should be navigated carefully so that it doesn’t put efforts at building an alliance into jeopardy,” Wanbai said.
THE IGBO MAN’S EGO
Peter Obi is from Anambra State and many Nigerians usually speculate that the Igbo and their ego are inseparable.
In the meantime, some analysts are saying that the PDP should talk with Obi about forming a coalition while some other analysts insist that Obi go to the PDP for talks.
Obi’s opponents say his ego will not permit him to go to the PDP or “bow” to anyone there.
A political analyst, Ify Ogbonna, told The Point, “The Igbo are a proud race. Everyone knows that the Igbo don’t bow to men?
“They rarely bow to their traditional rulers, much less an ordinary man. So, I won’t be surprised if Obi refuses to bow to Atiku or any other opposition politician, to determine who will be the number one among them.
“But there is still time, so let us continue to watch the proceedings.”
Ogbonna also said there are a lot of Igbo men who will not permit others, even their own kinsmen, to rise above them.
“Many Igbo men will not step down for their own kinsmen even if they were asked to produce a presidential candidate from their region.
“They will fight for that seat and it is possible that Obi could have a similar mindset towards other politicians,” Ogbonna opined.
CRISIS IN VARIOUS OPPOSITION PARTIES
Strangely, the three main opposition parties are mired in internal conflicts.
Internal leadership crisis forced PDP Governors to plan a summit after some members exchanged blows at the party’s Board of Trustee meeting in Abuja.
In the LP, there is an uneasy calm in the party.
Julius Abure was restored as the National Chairman of LP but the Nigeria Labour Congress vowed it would never back the party under Abure’s leadership.
In the NNPP, factional members are still squabbling over party logos.
The party is currently split into two factions, with Ajuji Ahmed and Boniface Aniebonam as National Chairman.
A former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, said that there is a deliberate plot to run the opposition aground ahead of 2027.
“There are internal mercenaries in the PDP, hired and motivated to destroy the party. The Labour Party is also facing similar issues. Peter Obi himself told me, ‘I don’t know what’s happening in the party I contested with.’
“There seems to be a deliberate project to destroy opposition,” El-Rufai alleged.
With all the hoopla in the opposition parties, analysts say they do not need a crystal ball to tell them that a coalition would be hard to come by.
