The nationwide hunger protest may have come and gone, but the possibility of another protest in the form of an unannounced civil disobedience has gotten the country sitting on a powder keg of tension.
The Point recalls that between August 1 and 10, Nigerians from different walks of life and regions, but the South East, took to the streets to protest against economic hardship and food crisis in the country.
The protesters also unveiled several key demands and of paramount importance to them were the demand for cuts in food, electricity and petrol prices.
They also said good governance and constitutional reforms were non-negotiable and compelled the President, Bola Tinubu, to, without delay; reverse the removal of subsidy on petrol.
Although there are now strong indications that the government still pays subsidies, the President, in an adamant nationwide broadcast to Nigerians on August 4, 2024, said that the removal of subsidy was “painful but necessary.”
The protest took a dangerous turn for the worse when the nation began to witness deadly riots in different parts of the country. In many parts of the country, violence had broken out and protesters had also gone on a looting spree.
Then again, because the protests were earlier advertised, security agencies across the country had mobilized manpower and equipment to preserve law and order, as well as protect government interests throughout the country.
But before protesters could literally cast the first stone, some Nigerians had made compelling predictions that the protest would not achieve its intended objectives.
According to these Nigerians, the prior notice given by the organisers of the protests to the government about the looming mass protests would tacitly encourage the government to do everything in their power to constrain and, if the need arises, clamp down on protesters.
Therefore, unlike the protests in Kenya, which have been raging since June, the energy of the hunger protesters in Nigeria seemed to have dissipated as they faced law enforcement agents, except in the North where angry youths had stood their ground.
The general consensus now, especially among critics and opponents of the government, is that another round of protests would erupt in the country and would be “instantaneous” and “uncontrollable,” with little or no notice to security agencies.
However, when such “unavoidable” protests would flare-up in the country, according to the analysts, remains a mystery they are yet to resolve.
A member of the Obidient Movement and former acting deputy chairman (Lagos State) of the deregistered KOWA party, Marvins Abhulimen told The Point, “I am not a prophet. I am not Jeremiah or Isaiah. I cannot make predictions.
“But the government is pushing Nigerians to the wall. Take workers for instance. They are not making money the way prices are going up. Employers have not increased salaries to reflect the changes.
“The thing you have to understand is how resilient Nigerians are.
“Nigerians are not people you push to the wall and they push back – sometimes they break the wall and walk through.
“So, I can’t predict if we will have another protest or if Nigerians will spontaneously react. But it (another protest) is something that is overdue.”
Because ordinary Nigerians are the ones who bear the brunt of most government policies, a public opinion poll was conducted by our correspondent in Lagos State and the results reveal that there is a high likelihood of an unannounced protest, if there would be any, happening during the 2027 presidential election.
Twenty-five respondents were asked when an unannounced nationwide protest would likely take place and they were expected to choose either before, during or after the general elections in 2027.
15 respondents (60%) among those interviewed were of the opinion that an unannounced protest would most likely happen during the general elections in 2027.
The poll further revealed that 5 respondents (20%) among those who were questioned agreed that protests would likely take place before the presidential election while 3 respondents (12%) said it would likely take place after the 2027 general elections.
Only 2 respondents, or 8%, among those who were interviewed, said they were not sure.
A political analyst, Benedict Njoku, on why he believes that an unannounced protest would likely take place before the general elections in 2027, noted that the government did not meet most of the demands of the #Endbadgovernance protesters.
In his opinion, the government’s insensitivity to the plight of Nigerians is a telltale sign that “Nigerians are on their own.”
“Most Nigerians are not happy with the government. The fact that people abandoned the last nationwide protests does not mean that Nigerians are cowards.
“And how many of the demands did the government meet? Has the price of food gone down? Is soaring inflation still not a thing in this country?
“Today, they say they are not paying subsidy but tomorrow they will say they have started paying subsidy on petrol, but the price of bread and petrol are still expensive and we are keeping vigil at filling stations before we can get fuel.
“And look at what is happening in the polity now. In the midst of poverty, our leaders are buying expensive vehicles, yachts and planes. Are those not heights of insensitivity?
“The actions of the government show that Nigerians are on their own. Nobody cares. And I won’t be surprised if they take to the streets for a sequel to the last protests, unannounced,” Njoku said.
However, another analyst, Alex Nwadike, said he thinks no unannounced protests would erupt in any part of the country now until “maybe during the general elections in 2027.”
Nwadike said Nigerians are exhausted “with the wanton destruction of life and property” after having taken part in the last nationwide protests.
Although he added that he was not fully sure whether a protest would erupt during the 2027 general elections, Nwadike however said that only “scam” elections in Nigeria will trigger the people into protesting violently during the election.
“I don’t think that an unannounced protest will erupt now until maybe during the next general elections in 2027. Nigerians are peaceful people and we have a high tolerance level.
“Today, they say they are not paying subsidy but tomorrow they will say they have started paying subsidy on petrol, but the price of bread and petrol are still expensive and we are keeping vigil at filling stations before we can get fuel”
“The people have also not recovered from the last protests. They are exhausted with the wanton destruction of life and property. So, let us cut the people some slack.
“The truth is that I may not be fully sure that a protest would likely take place during the 2027 elections, but if the people sensed that the elections were rigged, they would protest.
“A scam election is the only thing that will trigger Nigerians into protesting during the general elections,” Nwadike said.
In her own assessment, a chartered accountant, Ify Ogbonna, said that there would likely not be any unannounced protests before or during the 2027 general elections.
In her opinion, such protests would likely only take place after the general elections “if Nigerians fully believed that Tinubu had failed them.”
“No, there won’t be protests now or even during the general elections in 2027.
“But I suspect that there might be one after the elections in 2027. The #EndSars protest was after (Muhammadu) Buhari was elected.
“If Tinubu wins in 2027 and Nigerians are convinced that there was nothing he could do to solve the country’s problems, they will protest.
“If Nigerians fully believe that Tinubu has failed them, they will revolt because nobody would be able to beg them again then. It will be like the #EndSars protests,” Ogbonna opined.
The immediate past President of the Academic Staff Union of Polytechnics, Anderson Ezeibe, told The Point that he was not in a position to predict when a possible unannounced protest would likely take place.
Ezeibe said, “I can’t answer that kind of question. How am I supposed to know? I don’t know when an unannounced protest would take place in the country. I can’t predict.
“I am also not in a position to predict when an unannounced protest would likely take place.
“I can’t really say because it depends on a whole lot of factors.”
