President Muhammadu Buhari was in London recently for the Commonwealth Heads of Governments Meeting, where he told Theresa May, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, that he was more concerned with Nigeria’s economy and the security of the country and less concerned with the politics of re-election in 2019.
The President’s comment, coming against the background of media battle, in the last few weeks, on his performance with regard to the economy, is a move in the right direction, though observers of the nation’s political affairs would say that his body language does not support this statement.
The President’s comment, coming against the background of media battle, in the last few weeks, on his performance with regard to the economy, is a move in the right direction, though observers of the nation’s political affairs would say that his body language does not support this statement
Accepting the President’s position on the surface, however, we deem it necessary to remind his policy drivers that there is much to do in fixing the economy and in ensuring the security of lives and property across the nation. The President’s words must, therefore, be matched with concrete action and vigour. He must walk the talk.
For instance, while the Federal Government projects a Gross Domestic Product growth rate of 3.5 per cent for Nigeria this year, the International Monetary Fund predicts a growth rate of 1.9 per cent for the country. It also warned the country of a possible crash in oil price at the international oil market. Some have argued that IMF’s forecasts for emerging economies are always pessimistic, but this particular projection should not be thrown away. The Federal Government should see the forecast as a possibility and work towards surpassing it.
So far, the Buhari administration says it has been able to grow the country’s foreign exchange reserve to over $43billion currently, thanks to the increase in the price of crude oil at the international oil market. The administration hopes to build it up to $50 billion by the end of 2018. Nigerians would appreciate concrete steps in this regard.
The government has, however, done well in the area of diversification of the country’s economy into the agricultural sector. Through its anchor programme, it has been able to give inputs to farmers and achieve accelerated production of rice, wheat and poultry products, among others. It is estimated that, from this year, the country will achieve self-sufficiency in rice production. The Federal Government, as a result, would need to follow this up with massive cultivation of those food items where the country has comparative advantage in the West African sub-region, so that it can become a net exporter of rice and other food items.
The Federal Government also says that it wants the manufacturing and agricultural sectors to grow so that they can positively and significantly contribute to the GDP growth of the country. This is the ideal thing in many emerging economies that have witnessed increased GDP growth. Unfortunately, interest rates charged by Nigerian banks on loans are too high. What manner of agriculture or manufacturing can be done with interest rates of more than 25 per cent?
The ideal interest rate that would engender manufacturing and agricultural activities to grow and blossom must be single digit. It is a good thing that inflation rate is coming down, thus nullifying banks’ alibi that bringing down interest rates with rising inflation would be counterproductive. The solution lies between the Central Bank of Nigeria and the banks. The President would need to do something positive on this, to encourage the manufacturing sector, and for agricultural production to significantly grow.
However, there is still untold poverty in the land, as millions of Nigerians are unemployed across the country. This partly accounts for the rise in the crime wave. With no jobs to do, the youths, in particular, are easily recruited to both Boko Haram and other fiendish groups that have stalked the land.
Agreed, there is Boko Haram insurgency in Northeast Nigeria. But that zone has also been afflicted by a terrible climate change, resulting in high temperature, drying of rivers, drought, lack of pasture to feed livestock and inability of the people to practise agriculture.
The Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations has also alerted that the North East part of Nigeria is faced with an imminent food crisis and that most parts of Northern Nigeria may face food shortages from June, this year. The warning from FAO should be taken seriously and all hands must be on deck to ensure that food insecurity is averted in Nigeria.
As the President continues to showcase his scorecards to the electorate in his bid to present himself for re-election in 2019, he must also come out boldly on other socio-political problems militating against national cohesion and progress. One of them is the herdsmen carnage across the country for which his administration has yet to find a lasting solution. Also, series of criminal activities such as robberies, kidnapping and ritual killing are on the increase, and it behoves on President Buhari to stem the evil tide.
The issue of the alarming rise in the population of the country, which is now more than 190 million, is something to look at. Whatever the country is achieving in GDP growth rate is being obliterated by the country’s 2.7 per cent annual growth in population. Nigeria can only boast of real growth when it achieves significant GDP growth far more than the population growth rate.
The President also promised to fix infrastructure across the country. Unfortunately, infrastructural growth has yet to be felt. Government would need to move quickly in this direction to stem the negative effect of poor infrastructure on the prices of goods and services. The President also said, among other things, that he would like to see a national carrier; and, according to his policy makers, so much work has been done on this. While Nigerians await this feat, it is important to remind the President that there is very little time left for real governance.
