Today, Northern Nigeria is grappling with the issue of insecurity, illiteracy and other socio-economic challenges that have left the region underdeveloped as well as economically disadvantaged, and this, to keen political observers, will pose a real threat to Nigeria President Bola Tinubu’s 2027 reelection bid.
Tinubu is looking to win the next presidential election and then use the victory to consolidate his previous achievements as president.
But left unsolved, the North’s debilitating problems, which did not start today, might throw a spanner in the works by becoming formidable hurdles the former Lagos State Governor must face in his quest to sit atop Nigeria’s political empire.
When he took office on May 29, 2023, and swore allegiance to the Nigerian constitution at the Eagle Square in Abuja, Tinubu promised to address the myriad of problems plaguing Nigeria and it was evident through the pronouncements he made in his inaugural address that he was ready to work.
But try as he may to turn the people’s fortune around, Nigeria, so far, is still in a quandary and most of its over 200 million people are frustrated with the government.
And freshly coming out of a nationwide hunger protests that tested the patience of security agencies between August 1 and 10, and which draped many parts of the country owing to the unbearable hardship in the land, many Nigerians, especially those in the North, have been demanding that the government redeem them from hunger and hardship.
So, it did not happen by coincidence that the youths up North were the set of protesters who took it upon themselves to ensure that the protests lasted till the “people-appointed” August 10 ending date.
Northerners said they have never had it so bad with governance and so their men, women and children came out en masse to register their grievances.
In the South of the country, however, the Igbo of the South East chose to boycott the protests. According to their leaders, they do not want to be made the “scapegoats” of civil disobedience.
“What we should really be talking about at the moment are the few dissenting voices in the North who have been directly and indirectly speaking against the President”
As for the South West, they only activated their protests buttons for only a few days, and protests were largely peaceful in the region.
And last but not least, in the South South, it seemed the protests gradually fizzled out because of a lack of inspiration from the happenings in the South East and South West.
In contrast, regions in the North, from the North Central, North East and North West, were a different kettle of fish. In many Northern cities like Jos, Kano and Zaria in Kaduna State, it was like a war zone.
Although many Nigerians “sympathised” with the Northerners, many more citizens however wondered why the irate youths, who already went on a looting spree, did not disturb the peace or cry blue murder when the immediate past President, Muhammadu Buhari, a Northerner, was calling the shots.
The conspiracy theory that is prevalent about the northerners’ action is that they waited for a Southerner to be at the helm of affairs before they decided to revolt. Although this is debatable, some staggering statistics about the North, however, leave much to be desired.
A “hated” institution, the World Bank, released a report in which it stated that 87 percent of poor Nigerians are domiciled in the North. And since those in multidimensional poverty are in view, the enormity of the conundrum can well be appreciated.
Many Northerners are yet to embrace western education. And because of this, the Almajiri population there has continued to grow. According to the United Nations Children’s Fund, even though it is difficult to know the exact number of Almajiris in the region, some estimates put it at about 10 million and counting.
UNICEF also says that about 15 million out of school children are roaming the length and breadth of the North. The South’s “paltry” 3.5 million out of school children pales in comparison.
Insecurity and insurgency are also among the problems that have defied solutions in the North. The region is the hotbed of insurgency and banditry.
Sadly, these insurgents and bandits never record a lull in the size of their growing foot soldiers as their ranks are always replenished by mostly uneducated and brainwashed youths who believe they joined a “worthy” cause.
A so-called repentant Boko Haram member was reported to have claimed that members of the sect totaled 40,000 men. And as if that was not scary enough, an ex-Governor of Zamfara State and current Minister of Defence, Bello Matawalle, said there are over 30,000 armed bandits scattered across the North.
The United Nations said that between 2009 and 2020, members of Boko Haram killed roughly 35,000 innocent souls and this figure continues to grow unabated even in 2024. Bandits, on their own part, have already killed over 13,000 Nigerians and will not rest on their oars anytime soon.
Apart from the widespread atrocities, such as murder, rape, kidnapping, organized cattle-rustling and plunder, perpetuated by Boko Haram and bandits, the North also has an infrastructural deficit buckling the region.
As the North’s population, the largest in Nigeria, rapidly grows, the region is continuously confronted with growing challenges in infrastructure development.
And the resulting infrastructural deficit, which is being worsened by the region’s growing 100 million-plus strong population, is clearly seen in various sectors, including healthcare, transportation, housing, roads, etc.
A political analyst and clergyman, Reginald Anene, is of the view that the challenges in the North did not just appear and have been endemic to the region.
Anene said he does not see any reason why the President should be worried about the challenges in the North at this time.
He however agreed that any threat at all to Tinubu’s reelection bid might become apparent in the next couple of months if some of the issues in the North were not addressed.
He then observed that there are “few dissenting voices” in the North.
“What we should really be talking about at the moment are the few dissenting voices in the North who have been directly and indirectly speaking against the President,” he said.
“They are trying to threaten the President with the prospect of them not throwing their weight behind him in 2027.
“The likes of Ali Ndume who for a lot of reasons has taken it personally because it is obvious that many of them have become disenchanted because they probably have not gotten what they thought they would have gotten from Tinubu’s government,” he added.
Anene noted that the “big threat” against the President is the fact that he seems to be gradually pushing the nation towards true federalism.
“Remember first the decentralisation of power with the bill that makes it possible for states to generate electricity without having to feed it to the national grid.
“Then the second one is this issue of Local Government autonomy, which of course we know has not sat well with a lot of governors because it means they no longer have control over Local Government Chairmen,” he explained.
A public affairs analyst, Umar Wanbai said that Northerners know in their heart of hearts that Tinubu cannot solve all the problems in the region but that they hope he can benefit the region more than former Presidents from the region did.
“I am from Sokoto State. But I can tell you for free that Tinubu cannot solve all of the North’s problems. We know this in our heart of hearts.
“But because of his track record, we expect the President to benefit the North even more than other Presidents of Northern origin did. This is the least the President can do” Wanbai said.
He concluded, “Let us wait a bit for the President’s first term to end so that we can then gauge his performance in the North. I hope it will be above average.
“But mind you, the North will not sit back and pretend that it will stomach any negligence on the part of this administration.”
