In recent weeks ordinary Nigerians have taken to protest to draw the attention of those in authority to the economic realities on the ground. Religion and traditional leaders have added their voices too, just as the National Bureau of Statistics last week confirmed the rising cost of food. FESTUS OKOROMADU writes on the need for urgent intervention.
The latest Consumer Price Inflation report released by the National Bureau of Statistics last Thursday has affirmed the cry across the length and breadth of Nigeria, especially among the masses that the cost of living is becoming unbearable.
According to the NBS publication, the monthly CPI data commonly referred to as the headline inflation rate increased for the thirteenth consecutive month to 29.90 per cent in January 2024, translating to an increase of 0.98 percentage points when compared to the December 2023 headline inflation rate of 28.92 percent.
The January 2024 inflation rate as reported by NBS represents a 28-year high, surpassing the 29.51 percent recorded in July 1996. In addition, this persistent surge remains above the Central Bank of Nigeria’s target range of 6 percent to 9 percent, even as financial experts said that it was driven by price hikes following the removal of premium motor spirit subsidies and the unification of the foreign exchange rate.
Further analysis of the NBS report shows that major contributors to the acceleration in the headline index include food and non-alcoholic beverages, which contributed over 51 percent of the total 29.90 percent growth. Other contributing factors include housing and utility items, clothing and footwear, transportation costs, and educational and health amenities costs, accounting for 17 percent, 8 percent, 7 percent, 3.95 percent, and 3.0 percent respectively.
Nigeria’s headline inflation reading has maintained an upward trajectory since December 2022, partly due to structural challenges in the agricultural sector, which has resulted in supply constraints in the food sector.
But more worrisome is the fact that food inflation continued to soar, climbing to 35.41 percent year-on-year in January 2024, which was 11.10 percentage points higher compared to the January 2023 rate of 24.32 percent.
According to NBS, factors which drove food inflation during the period included increases in the prices of bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, oil and fat, fish, meat, fruit, coffee, tea and cocoa. Other contributing factors included flooding, insecurity in agricultural areas, and disruptions in global food supply chains due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
“We want the government to intervene and urgently take steps to ameliorate the situation. If the government fails to address the situation, we will go violent”
Reactions from palaces and pulpits
Prior to the release of the NBS report, the Emir of Kano, Aminu Ado Bayero, had on Monday requested that Nigeria’s First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, who paid him a courtesy visit to use her direct line of communication with the President address the pressing issues facing the nation. The Emir listed the issues of serious concern as the severity of hunger and starvation in the country, stressing they need urgent action from the government.
Two days later, the Sultan of Sokoto, Muhammad Abubakar, threw his weight behind the lamentation team wailing over the economic hardship in the country, saying Nigerians were frustrated and hungry.
Speaking at the 6th executive committee meeting of the Northern Traditional Rulers Council held in Kaduna State on Wednesday, the Sultan blamed insecurity and poverty for the trouble in the Northern part of the country.
“To make matters worse, we are faced with rising levels of poverty of most of our people; a lack of normal sources of livelihood for the common man to have even a good meal a day,” he said.
Similarly, the Christian Association of Nigeria and the Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria have called on the government to find a lasting solution to what they call, ‘the prevailing economic hardship and insecurity facing Nigeria.’
In a statement on Friday, the Secretary-General of CAN in the 19 Northern States and the Federal Capital Territory, Elder Sunday Oibe, said: “The high cost of foodstuffs, transportation, goods and services has made life difficult for many Nigerians.”
The association stated, “The situation is further compounded by escalating insecurity occasioned by rampant killings and kidnapping for ransom, the government must take urgent steps to address the depressing economic and escalating security situation in the country.”
Political opponents are not left out in the outcry, for instance, the Board of Trustees, of the People’s Democratic Party led by former Senate President, Adolphus Wabara, last week called on President Bola Tinubu to address the impact of the high price of petrol and inflation in the country.
Ordinary Nigerians wail
Two weeks ago, youths and women of Niger state took to the streets of Minna protesting over what they called the biting hardship and rising cost of living in the country.
According to reports, the protest started when a group of women blocked Minna-Bida Road at the popular Kpakungu Roundabout to lament what they termed the suffering under the Bola Tinubu government.
Barely days after the protest in Niger State, hundreds of residents of the ancient city of Kano stormed Katsina-Kano Road to express their displeasure over the high cost of living in the state.
The residents comprising youths, old, men and women besieged the Bachirawa, Kurna and Rijiyar Zaki roads along Katsina – Kano Road chanting, “We can’t bear the high cost of living.”
One of the protesters who spoke to journalist Usman Saidu Bello said the economic challenges or hardship is getting worse on a daily basis hence the need for the government to take urgent steps to ameliorate the situation.
In his words: “Everybody is worried about the situation. Right from when we adapt to the situation, we are forced to come out to the streets to express our displeasure over the situation. We cannot bear the high cost of living. People cannot eat three square meals. Even the one square meal is now becoming difficult.
“A bag of rice which was sold for over N27, 000 is now sold at N70, 000. Sugar which was sold for N8, 000 now goes for N75, 000.
“We want the government to intervene and urgently take steps to ameliorate the situation. If the government fails to address the situation, we will go violent,” Bello said.
A report had it that the protest spread across other parts of the country including Lagos, Ilorin and Osogbo.
The cost of food is a concern
According to the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations, West Africa, Nigeria included, remains off-track to meet the food and security target of the Sustainable Development Goal by 2030.
Perhaps it was for a show of concern towards addressing this warning that the President Tinubu administration declared an agricultural emergency on July 13, 2023. However, the initiative seems not to have started yielding the desired result as the cost of food continues to soar in recent times.
An Abuja-based civil servant, Mrs Grace Ono, who spoke to our reporter, said a bag of rice now costs N70, 000. Pointing out that the price rose from N8, 000 a few years ago stealthily until it got to the current price. A mudu of rice starts from N1, 000 to N1, and 5000 instead of N250 it was sold before now, depending on the brand.
Garri used to be regarded as very cheap. That has changed; she said and has also become the food for the rich. A mudu of garri now sells for as high as N800, instead of N200 it used to be.
Other food items such as groundnut oil, red oil, fresh tomatoes and pepper are not left out in this price hike, she said. Four litres of groundnut oil has risen to N7, 500 instead of N4, 000 that it used to be, while a bottle is now sold for N1,300 as against N700. The same thing goes for red oil.
A mini basket of tomatoes is sold for 12,000, N10, 000, or N9, 000 depending on the day. A tomato seller at Utako market told our reporter that the days of the week determine the price most times. “Tomatoes are usually cheaper during the early days of the week than weekends,” he hinted.
Northerners turn to ‘throw-away’ rice for food
As the rising cost of living continues to bite, many in northern Nigeria are turning to rice grains that millers normally reject after processing or sell to farmers to feed their fish.
These are referred to in the Hausa language, widely spoken in the north, as afafata, which means “battling” because they are literally a battle to cook and eat as the grains are so hard.
“A few years ago, people didn’t care about this type of rice, and we usually threw it away along with the rice hulls, but times have changed,” Isah Hamisu, a rice mill worker in the northern city of Kano, told the BBC.
Despite the grains being broken, dirty and tough, afafata’s cheaper price has made it more attractive for humans and helped poorer families to be able to afford to eat one of the staple foods in the country.
Fish farm owner Fatima Abdullahi said her fish love it but because people are now eating afafata, its price has risen.
Many more families in the north are now opting to buy afafata
In the face of this many are struggling to cope and in some states there have been cost-of-living protests.
The solution, for now, for some is found in afafata.
Hajiya Rabi Isah, based in Kano State, told the BBC that if it were not for this type of rice her children would go hungry as she cannot afford the normal kind.
“Normal rice is N4, 000 ($2.70) per bowl which is beyond my means, I can only afford afafata which is N2, 500 ($1.69) now,” she said.
One bowl of rice from the market can feed an average family in Kano for a day.
“Without afafata, feeding my family would be a major issue for me,” she said.
Saminu Uba, who works in Kano’s Medile market, said the afafata side of his business is booming.
“Most people can no longer afford normal rice and they come for this which is cheaper even though it tastes less good,” he told the BBC.
One of his customers, Hashimu Dahiru, admitted that people have to find ways of adapting.
“The cost of goods is alarming – in just two months the price of everything has doubled.
“Our wives spend hours removing stones and dirt from the rice before cooking and even then it ends up tasting not nice, but we have to eat to survive,” he said.
Experts’ view
Financial experts at Cowry Assets Management Limited think that the continued increase in food inflation is due to divergent issues bedeviling the agricultural sector.
“The marked rise in headline inflation in January signals the expectation for continued elevated price levels partly due to structural challenges in the agricultural sector, which has resulted in supply constraints in the food sector,” they stated in their weekly report.
Meanwhile, they warned against the government’s move to solve the food crisis through a price regulatory system, saying, “Recently, the federal government took immediate actions on the need to create a commodity board as a means to tackle inflation and food crisis. This move may not yield the desired results on the economy considering failure of previous attempts to mitigate rising costs.
“The high inflation rate has had a significant negative impact on the Nigerian economy and the lives of ordinary Nigerians; eroded purchasing power, led to increased poverty, and dampened economic growth,” they stated.
On government using policy instruments of the monetary policy committee (MPC), of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) prepares to meet for the first time under the current administration, the Cowry Researchers says, “given the unabating rise in inflationary trend, a tightening measure is expected to combat the high inflation by a modest 25-75bps. Regardless, Cowry Research foresees a continued rise in headline inflation in the month of February to 32 percent.”
On their part, economic analysts at the Financial Derivatives Limited said the country is entering into a new phase.
Reviewing the macroeconomic situation and its relationship to inflation, FDL researchers in their latest publication of ‘The Whispers,’ said, “The naira, at the official window has crashed sharply by approximately 69 percent to the current N1,498.25/$ compared to N461.42/$ in February 2023.
“This can be largely attributed to the currency devaluations (two times in eight months) by the new administration aimed at attracting foreign direct investment, increasing dollar inflows, and stimulating employment and economic growth.
“However, given Nigeria’s dependence on and preference for imported goods, the sharp exchange rate decline will lead to higher inflationary pressures in the country.”
On the prospect of curbing the economic challenges through regulatory policies, the researchers said the MPC is responsible for ensuring price stability and faces the challenge of curbing inflation expectations. Hence in their meeting later this month, “The anticipation of rising prices is a key factor driving inflation, necessitating a clear, aggressive, and strict approach by the MPC to maintain price stability. “
“The farmers/herders’ crisis must be resolved fast if the government is serious about solving the food price hike”
Citing global standards, they said, “Major central banks in advanced economies have set the precedent, maintaining status quo and leaving benchmark interest rates elevated in their January meetings despite decreased inflation levels in 2023.
“Nigeria’s headline inflation consistently rose in 2023 to reach 28.9 percent in December, and amid significant headwinds, we expect an interest rate hike of at least 200 bps to 20.75% p.a. While this is expected to mop up the excess money supply, borrowing costs for firms already dealing with declining profitability due to foreign exchange losses will also climb.”
Lasting solution
A public affairs analyst, Monday Adeoye, who spoke to our reporter on how to solve rising food inflation among Nigerians said, the most critical issue is that of insecurity across the country.
“The government must address the challenge posed by insecurity seriously. Nigerians are hardworking people. The mid-belt that used to be the food basket of the nation has become a war zone. Every day we hear news of killings in Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Nasarawa, Niger, farmers can no longer access their farms. When they cultivate their land, terrorists will kidnap them and force them to pay taxes. How do you expect them to farm?
“The farmers/herders’ crisis must be resolved fast if the government is serious about solving the food price hike,” he said.
According to him, governments at various levels must make serious efforts to take over the ungoverned space in the country.
“Imagine a situation where bandits are collecting taxes instead of the government, how can the government claim to be in control? And so long as nobody is in charge sitting in their comfort zone in Abuja or anywhere will not solve the problem.
“Resolving the insecurity challenge must be a priority project for the President Bola Tinubu administration if he wants to succeed,” he said.
