The return to democratic governance in Nigeria in 1999 and the fundamental changes in the economy, up to 2010, gave the impression that Nigeria was ready to join the league of countries like India and China, which were recording fast growth rates. In fact, in October 2010, the International Monetary Fund declared Nigeria as the third fastest growing economy in the world. It was also reported that China, India and Nigeria might lead global economic growth in the next decade. Events in the country between then and now have, however, proved that we do not have the discipline as a nation to successfully go on that trajectory. This is as a result of some deep-rooted lapses in the management of our country’s economy.
Few years after that forecast, our oil receipts nosedived following global instability in the price of crude oil, bringing hardships to the local economy as government did not respond early enough to calls for the diversifying the economy to agriculture and solid minerals, among others, where the country has comparative advantage. We continued to import everything-from toothpick to rice-that can either be grown or manufactured in this country. The economy soon ran into an agonizing recession, the first in 25 years. The country has since moved out of the recession but its growth has not moved up appreciably since a year ago. It is hoped that the government will continue to take positive steps to steer the economy along the path of growth.
Again, the forecast was that, Nigeria’s economy will overtake that of South Africa by 2023; but the Nigerian economy effortlessly overshot that of South Africa by 2014 following the rebasing of our economy and taking into consideration, some other factors such as the fast-moving entertainment industry that we had neglected before. Today, Nigeria ranks third globally in the entertainment industry. I can conveniently say that our best is yet to come in the entertainment industry, because if the government pays attention to the entertainment industry, just as it is now doing in agriculture, Nigeria will move up the global ladder in that sector, and more of the youth will move into the sector for jobs; and there will be some Foreign Direct Investment flowing into the entertainment industry.
In the decade up to 2013 or so, Nigeria made it to the top 20 global destinations for FDI and was receiving one of the largest amounts of Foreign Direct Investment in Africa. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Nigeria recorded FDI inflows of about USD 6 billion in 2009 alone, making the country the 19th highest recipient of FDI in the world for that year. The FDI was largely in the oil and gas sector and a few non-oil sectors such as telecommunications, banking and financial services, and real estate development, among others.
It is instructive to note that the key catalysts to the impressive inflow of FDI into the country between 1999 and 2013 was stable political environment and the various policy and regulatory reforms that were embarked upon by the new democratic government to sanitize both the financial services sector and revamp the telecommunications sector through a modestly transparent liberalization initiative. The country also witnessed the emergence, albeit at a slow pace, of middle class structure, and also a high return on investment profile of the country as an emerging market with ample population and relative supply of skilled labour. Now that we have put the recession behind us, the country can regain its growth
again.
One Yoruba adage says that when a small boy falls down, he looks at the front but when an adult falls down, he looks back. In other words, we fell down as a result of the recession and in our attempt to get up, we must look backwards and see what led to our downfall and redress them. It is noteworthy that we have started addressing some of those things that failed us such as over-reliance on the oil sector.
As we diversify into agriculture and other areas, we must also look at the failure of our critical infrastructure, especially energy and begin local manufacture of all the petroleum products that we need, we must speedily rebuild our broken down roads and rail infrastructure, we must improve security of life and property by recruiting more policemen and by allowing states to have their own police and also stamp out the Boko Haram terrorists from the country. ICT development is also critical and we must see how the sector can speedily move forward through technological innovation and impressive investment in ICT infrastructure
growth.
