Nigeria has witnessed a worsening economic downturn in 10 years, with its GDP per capita plummeting by 72.35 per cent.
Data obtained from the website of the International Monetary Fund indicated that Nigeria’s GDP per capita declined from $3,022 in 2014 to just $835.49 in 2024, signaling a sharp contraction in the average economic output per person.
The country’s total Gross Domestic Product—the overall value of goods and services produced—also fell steeply, from $568.5bn recorded in 2014 to $194.96bn in 2024, marking a staggering 65.71 per cent decline over the period.
Beyond the contraction in economic output, Nigeria’s real GDP growth has also slowed considerably.
The IMF data showed that real GDP growth, which measures economic expansion adjusted for inflation, stood at 6.3 per cent in 2014 but has dropped to 2.9 per cent in 2024.
The economic crisis has been exacerbated by policy reforms initiated in 2023 under President Bola Tinubu, who is currently in Ethiopia for the African Union summit, just a week after visiting Emmanuel Macron in France.
The fuel subsidy removal— one of the reforms, triggered a sharp increase in petrol prices, fueling inflation that surged to 34.8 per cent in December 2024.
The simultaneous devaluation of the naira further eroded purchasing power, driving up import costs and worsening inflationary pressures.
Nigeria is also struggling to meet its oil production targets under the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, limiting foreign exchange earnings.
Tinibu’s efforts to stabilise the economy have not yielded the desired result despite claims by his political allies that there were signs of growth.
However, economists say that despite official assertions of economic recovery, key indicators paint a bleak picture.
“There is an illusion of economic progress,” former Chief Economist at Zenith Bank, Marcel Okeke said.
“The government is asking citizens to tighten their belts, yet the reality is that the economy is in persistent decline. The numbers show we are constantly moving backward,” Okeke noted.
Okeke highlighted the worsening inflation rate, which jumped from 22.4 per cent in May 2023 to 34.8 per cent in December 2024.
“What real progress are we talking about when inflation is soaring?” he asked.
He also pointed to the naira’s rapid depreciation.
“In May 2023, the exchange rate was below N500 per dollar. Today, it fluctuates between N1,000 and N1,500 per dollar despite government interventions,” he said.
Fuel prices have surged as well, with Premium Motor Spirit rising from below N200 per litre in May 2023 to nearly N1,000 per litre.
“This reinforces the argument that the economy is in a steady state of decline,” Okeke added.
The National Bureau of Statistics planned to rebase the country’s GDP and Consumer Price Index by January 2025, a move aimed at providing a more updated economic assessment.
However, Okeke cautioned that adjustments to economic indicators could create a misleading impression of progress.
“The government may attempt to arrive at figures that suggest economic improvement, but the reality on the ground is different. Millions remain unemployed, and even those with jobs are struggling as salaries lose value,” he said.
Okeke also dismissed the significance of rising federal allocations, arguing that increased revenue distribution has not translated into improved living standards.
“A 50kg bag of cement cost N2,000 or N3,000 when we were sharing hundreds of billions. Now that trillions are being allocated, cement costs N9,000 or N10,000. What has changed for the better?” he questioned.
He described Nigeria’s economic state as “consistently retrogressive,” with no signs of reversal.
“People are leaving the country in droves, searching for better livelihoods. Even those with jobs are barely surviving. The government may celebrate figures, but reality tells a different story,” he said.
Oil remains Nigeria’s dominant foreign exchange earner, accounting for over 90 per cent of total export value.
The country has struggled in recent years to meet its OPEC production quota, further straining government revenue.
However, OPEC reported this week that Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to an average of 1.53 million barrels per day in January, marking the first time the country met its 1.5 million bpd quota since it was set at OPEC’s ministerial meeting on November 30, 2023.
Despite this temporary boost, analysts caution that structural challenges—ranging from pipeline vandalism to underinvestment—continue to threaten production stability.
Development economist Aliyu Ilias attributed Nigeria’s low GDP per capita to the prolonged depreciation of the naira.
“The naira has fallen from about N300 per dollar to over N1,500 per dollar. Looking at key economic indicators, there is no sign of improvement,” he said.
He also pointed out that Nigeria’s 2025 budget reflects these economic challenges.
“In dollar terms, the 2025 budget is lower than 2024’s, highlighting the financial strain,” he noted.
According to Ilias, reversing the decline in GDP per capita requires urgent policy action.
“To achieve economic growth, Nigeria must boost production, balance trade, improve security, and ensure food and energy security.
“Without addressing these fundamental issues, our GDP will continue to struggle, and GDP per capita will not improve,” he said.
