Middle East crisis: Will Nigeria choose sides if World War 3 erupts?

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The dialogue of violence between Israel and the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance in the Middle East has been relentless for years and, so far, shows no sign of abating.

This Axis of Resistance, according to the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netenyahu, comprises Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Houthi rebels in Yemen, Palestinian terrorists in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria), as well as Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq, respectively.

Referred to as the Axis of Evil by the West and Israel, the Axis of Resistance is a network of militias and political groups in the Middle East that want to reduce or even puncture Israeli and American influence in the region.

They equally resist the Israeli occupation of Palestine and constantly put their words into action by firing rockets and drones into the Jewish state to compel the creation of a Palestinian State.

This is why Israel battles conflict on seven fronts with no end in sight, and analysts fear that the crisis in the region could snowball into a World War that would leave Nigeria no choice but to pick sides in that eventuality.

As with earlier World Wars, major world powers like the United States of America, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, China and Russia, would naturally enter the fray. They have their vested interest in the crisis rocking the strife-ridden region, and the inevitable outcome of their involvement would be catastrophic.

Analysts have added that if diplomacy, as against military prowess or bravado, is not used to mediate a settlement that would be satisfactory to the warring parties in the region, the world might also find itself grappling with the prospect of Nuclear warfare and would not be prepared for a blast of such harsh reality.

The US and its European allies are Israel’s biggest arms suppliers and continue, militarily and diplomatically, to protect the Jewish state that was formed in 1948 following a United Nations General Assembly resolution.

In the same way, Iran is ensuring that cash, guns and rockets in the Axis of Resistance’s possession are not exhausted. And should there be an escalation in the crisis ravaging the region; Iran would look to Russia and China for support owing to the close tie between it and the two nuclear powers.

What began as a localised conflict between Israel and Hamas on October 7, 2023, when residents in some Israeli communities near the border with Gaza were attacked, raped and killed by marauding Hamas fighters who invaded their territory and took almost 250 Israelis as hostages into Gaza, is responsible for driving the world to the brink of war and has led to the death of more than 40,000 Palestinians.

After the October attacks, the Federal Government of Nigeria called for a “ceasefire” and a “peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Middle East through dialogue,” but some Nigerians, however, took umbrage at the government’s pacifist approach and questioned why Hamas was not condemned outright.

Observers say the government likely decided to choose its words in the matter carefully because the Israel-Hamas conflict had polarised Nigerians along religious lines – most Muslims in the country support the Palestinians while Christians mainly lend their voice to support the Israeli cause.

Nigeria will, therefore, be between the devil and the deep blue sea if there is a wider war in West Asia that may try to make the Federal Government choose between Palestine and Israel. Although it is unthinkable, it seems the world is ominously marching in this direction.

“We have had enough bloodbaths in the region, and I think a permanent solution should be what is paramount in the minds of Nigerians, not hate or division”

In their attempt to bring peace to the region, the Israel Defence Forces in conjunction with Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency, eliminated Hezbollah and Hamas leaders using airstrikes and some other unorthodox means.

The IDF, in April 2024, killed Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in Syria, and since then, the floodgate of brutal assassinations have been opened.

Iran retaliated by firing nearly 300 drones and rockets at Israel but most of them were intercepted by Israel’s missile defence systems in collaboration with US and other allies’ fighter jets and warships in the region.

Following Zahedi’s death, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas was assassinated in July in Tehran, the Iranian capital by an apparent Israeli attack after he attended the inauguration ceremony for Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

The Israeli Air force again flexed the country’s military might by eliminating Hezbollah’s Secretary-General and one of the founding members of the group, Hassan Nasrallah, in an airstrike in Lebanon, a country Israel has invaded and said it launched “limited, localised and targeted raids” against Hezbollah.

Nasrallah and Haniyeh’s deaths then galvanized Iran to fire a barrage of at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. Most of the missiles were intercepted but a handful landed in Israel, causing minimal damage, according to the IDF.

Israel has vowed a response to the missile barrage. The country’s Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, said it would be “precise and deadly.” The US has, however, urged Israel not to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities as that would escalate the crisis.

Iran is defiant though. It says it will respond “decisively” if Israel attacks any of its infrastructures.

Israel says it will soon retaliate against the barrage of missiles Iran fired at them. And to prevent more ballistic missiles from flying into Israel after they do, the US has deployed a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence, or THAAD missile defence system, plus a hundred troops, in Israel to bolster Israel’s defences.

Now, the world waits anxiously to know whether the back-and-forth between Israel and Iran will unleash Armageddon in the world.

Meanwhile, the IDF eliminated another Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, last week in Gaza, and Netenyahu, the Israel PM reacted to the killing by saying that the war in Gaza would end immediately and the over 100 hostages still held by Hamas were released.

A current affairs analyst, Obiora Agu, told The Point, “What is happening in the Middle East between Israel and the Palestinians is difficult to resolve.

“Within the disputed land, the territories belonging to the Palestinians, that is, Gaza and the occupied West Bank are separated from each other and it will be difficult to bring them together.

“Nigeria should not pick sides in the conflict at all. At the United Nations, we must always do the right thing and vote according to our conscience for any UN resolution to take effect.

“The Palestinians are suffering. The Israelis are suffering, too. And land matters are always tricky to resolve, even in Nigeria here. So, if it were possible for the Palestinians and Israelis to live together in the land, with equal rights and privileges that would be fantastic.

“That, in my opinion, is what Nigeria should be supporting. We have had enough bloodbaths in the region, and I think a permanent solution should be what is paramount in the minds of Nigerians, not hate or division.”

Reacting to the involvement of Nigeria in a probable World War caused by the Middle East crisis, a Chartered Accountant, Ifeoma Ogbonna, said the crisis in the region was “tied to religion.”

She added that because Nigeria is a highly religious country, its Government should “maintain a neutral posture” in the crisis.

“The way I see the crisis in the land of Palestine or Israel, whichever side of the divide you are on, the crisis there is tied to religion.

“I think there is even a spiritual dimension to it. This is why the world needs divine intervention for the way forward.

“And remember that religion is a very volatile topic in Nigeria. That is why I would suggest Nigeria maintained a neutral posture over the crisis in that region.

“The United Nations does not seem to have control over the crisis; our representatives can abstain from voting on new resolutions, to show impartiality.”