As Edo State approaches the 2024 governorship election with campaigns kicking off in April, the focus on mainstream parties may overshadow the potential for the emergence of a dark horse. Strategic alliances, smaller parties and the electorate’s inclination towards personalities could make the election one of the most unpredictable and intriguing in recent history of Edo politics.
The gladiators who claimed and are bitter that they are disfranchised, if they play their cards right, may pave the way for a political shift that the state never saw coming. But the big question is who is a dark horse? Any of these seven gladiators could emerge as “Governor- Elect” but the dark horse is waiting on the horizon to cash in on the mess that engulfed the various primaries.
Simply put, the dark horse would be defined by the electorates.
The ruling People’s Democratic Party, alongside other political parties in the state, including the All Progressives Congress and the Labour Party, among others, are all gearing up for the September 21 governorship election.
It’s no longer news that these political parties held primary elections to elect their flag bearers in the 2024 governorship election in the state. The elections were, however, not without drama and controversies.
The three major political parties as well as others have since presented their candidates and have started the process of outwitting one another ahead of the September 21, governorship election in the state.
The Independent National Electoral Commission has announced the deadline for the submission of nomination forms for the forthcoming off-cycle governorship election.
According to the National Commissioner and Chairman of the Information and Voter Education Committee, Sam Olumekun, the deadline for the conduct of primaries by political parties expired on February 24, 2024.
“The next activity in the electoral process is the submission of nomination forms by political parties via a dedicated online portal. INEC has allocated a 20-day period for political parties to upload the Personal Particulars (Form EC9) and Names/List of Nominated candidates (Form EC9B) of their candidates to the portal.
“The online portal will open at 9.00am on Monday 4th March 2024 and automatically close at 6.00pm on Sunday 24th March 2024. Access codes to the portal will be available for collection by the national chairmen of political parties starting from today.
“To assist political parties in ensuring smooth nominations, INEC is organizing refresher training for two Liaison Officers per party. The training will take place from Friday 1st March 2024 to Monday 4th March 2024 at the Media Centre at the INEC Headquarters in Abuja.
“During the nomination period, the Media Centre will also serve as a Help Desk for any political party needing assistance.”
“The PDP noted that what is expected of Governor Obaseki at this critical point in time is to channel his energy towards reconciling and uniting the Edo PDP family by providing the needed leadership required in winning the state for the party come September 21, 2024”
INEC emphasized that the 20-day timeline is sufficient for uploading the nomination forms of only two candidates per party (governorship candidate and running mate). Therefore, no requests for extension of time will be granted beyond Sunday, March 24, 2024.
Political parties are urged to strictly comply with the timelines set by INEC for the submission of nomination forms.
While Asue Ighodalo emerged governorship candidate of the PDP, the duo of Monday Okpebholo, and Olumide Akpata, won in APC and LP primary elections, respectively.
Other winners were Isaiah Osifo of People Redemption Party and Patience Key of the All Progressives Grand Alliance.
Nonetheless, as the political climate heats up in anticipation of the forthcoming election, the mainstream narrative revolves around the established trio of the PDP, APC, and LP.
However, beneath this predictable surface lies the potential for a dark horse, an unexpected and unconventional candidate who could redefine the political map in the state.
Edo State has a track record of voters favouring personalities over political parties in past elections.
This trend could disrupt the apparent dominance of the traditional top three parties, paving way for an unforeseen contender with genuine capacity, a proven track record, and ample funding to emerge victorious. That is what many refer to as the dark horse effect as the election draws closer. Although, no one can say for sure who that could possibly be within the arrays of the gladiators presently in contest for the post.
Expectedly, there are numerous witty factors that would determine this. First is the Obidients factor. The influence of the Obidients, a group which was given birth to with the emergence of Peter Obi in last year’s Presidential election, cannot be underestimated. Their role in securing a remarkable 90% victory for the Labour Party in Edo State during the previous presidential election showcases their sway.
Aligning with the Obidients and tapping into the discontent within the major parties could lead to a surprising win for a dark horse in the gubernatorial race.
What this means is that the battle for the governorship race goes beyond the present permutations that it would be a three-horse race contest.
The struggle for the number one slot extends beyond the mainstream trio, with smaller parties like the Action Alliance, Zenith Labour, the New Nigeria Peoples Party and the Social Democratic Party, entering the fray which is ignited by the displacement of top talent from major parties and internal squabbles rocking these political giants.
Giants sidelined by an alleged rigged process within their parties may either move on or stage a comeback, possibly revitalizing smaller parties to challenge the status quo.
While Asue Ighodalo of the PDP, Monday Okpebholo of the APC, and Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party take centre stage as gladiators, a monumental shift in political behaviour is evident in Edo State.
The emergence of Akpata in LP, despite allegations and campaign of calumny that the governor is using him to destabilize opposition, especially the LP from being effective indicates a potential political tsunami.
A dreaded politician and chieftain of the APC, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, disenfranchised within his party, added an intriguing robust change to the race.
There is also the influence of Anselm Ojezua, a grassroots politician reportedly upset with the current governor.
Ojezua has secured funding to challenge from outside the PDP.
Also, there is Prince Tom Iseghohi, a business tycoon and charismatic leader. He withdrew from the Labour Party primaries and intends to pursue his gubernatorial bid through PUP culture.
Dennis Idahosa, a politician who lost in the APC primaries may not stop at the court and could add further complexity to the race.
With projected strategic alliances between the Obidients and disenfranchised members from major parties, there is a likelihood of an emergency of a formidable force, potentially leading to an unexpected contender securing the gubernatorial win.
This was very clear as the Labour Party was fractured into four factions and with very insignificant membership that made it vulnerable before the Appeal Court judgment last week that killed the Lamidi Apapa faction. This would have, no doubt created an opportunity for another third force to displace Labour on a smaller platform, potentially reshaping the political climate.
Crises inside the ruling PDP
Amidst claims and counter claims, Ighodalo has since been awarded the Certificate of Return at a ceremony organised by the party in Abuja.
While authenticating the primary that produced him as against the Deputy Governor, Philip Shaibu, the acting National Chairman of the PDP, Ambassador Umar Damagum, insisted that there was no other parallel primary, arguing that the party recognised only the election that produced Ighodalo.
The party clearly appeared to have pitched its tent with Ighodalo.
Damagun at the presentation ceremony nevertheless urged the winner to embrace his fellow contestants.
“I’m urging the candidate to go after your fellow candidates and make them see the reason you must work as a team so that Edo will be an easy ride for us.”
The party has also condemned in its entirety the move by members of the Edo State House of Assembly to impeach the Deputy Governor of the State, Philip Shaibu over alleged acts of misconduct.
The party in a statement issued by its Publicity Secretary, Bishop Ante, described the impeachment move as unreasonable and uncalled for particularly that it is coming at a time the party was pursuing reconciliations in the face of obvious divisions among the rank and file of the party in the state ahead of the governorship election.
It read, “It is a sad development and indeed a sign of failure of the leadership of the party in Edo State to allow internal political disagreements to snowball into a major crisis that could jeopardize the chances of the party in the forthcoming governorship election in the state.
“The party notes that while impeachment of the Deputy Governor Shaibu remains within the powers of the State House of Assembly, such powers can only be exercised in line with the laws of the land.”
The statement further noted that the party was disturbed by the unending feud between Governor Godwin Obaseki and his deputy who were elected on the platform of the party to better the lots of the people, a mandate the party fears has now been abandoned by the duo as evident in the current political crisis in the state.
While calling on Governor Obaseki to jettison the idea of having his deputy impeached, the party warned that such move particularly in the face of the obvious politically induced and unfounded allegations contained in the impeachment notice, could have damning consequences on the chances of the party winning the forthcoming governorship election in the state.
The statement however, commended the maturity and calmness exhibited thus far by Shaibu in the face of provocation and urged him to continue to remain the true loyal and committed party man he is known to be.
The PDP noted that what is expected of Governor Obaseki at this critical point in time is to channel his energy towards reconciling and uniting the Edo PDP family by providing the needed leadership required in winning the state for the party come September 21, 2024.
“Engaging in a self-serving impeachment move against Shaibu at this critical time and period will do us no good,’’ the statement noted.
APC in court
The opposition All Progressives Congress has been dragged to court by one of its aggrieved aspirants, Dennis Idahosa, who is laying claims to the ownership of the ticket of the party’s primary.
Justice James Kolawole Omotosho of the Federal High Court, Abuja, has fixed March, 14 2024, for hearing the suit by Idahosa seeking to be declared the APC candidate for the 2024 Edo governorship election.
Idahosa in the suit urged the court to declare him as the APC’s candidate having scored a total of 40,453 votes.
He also argued that the declaration of Monday Okpebholo who scored 100 votes at the primaries of February 17, 2024, is an infraction of the Electoral Act, APC’s constitution and the guidelines for primary elections.
Responding to Idahosa’s application presented by his counsel, Bode Olanipekun, SAN, of Wole Olanipekun & Co., Justice Omotosho issued directives for the service of the originating processes on Monday Okpebholo.
This involves delivering the documents to the clerk of the National Assembly, an adult person, or an official at the Senate chambers in the National Assembly’s Three Arms Zone, Abuja.
Additionally, the documents are to be delivered to an adult person, official, or secretary at the 2nd defendant’s (APC) office located at 40, Blantyre Crescent, Wuse 2, Abuja.
“If anyone tells you that we are not worried about what is happening in regards to the Edo governorship ticket, that individual is economical with the truth. We shouldn’t have allowed the primary election to get to the stage of one aspirant or the other seeking redress in court”
The upcoming court ruling has created tension at the national headquarters of the party and added to the already palpable tension surrounding the legal battle between Idahosa, the APC and Senator Akpakomiza.
Meanwhile, the National Vice Chairman, South West, Isaac Kekemeke told the media after the NWC meeting last week that the party is in total control of the situation.
He added that “as a progressive party, the APC will bring the warring individuals to work together for the good of the party.”
A chieftain of the party at its national secretariat told The Point that the situation is another move by the members of the party in Edo State to scuttle the chances of the APC in the forthcoming election.
Our source that preferred anonymity described it as a repeat of the 2020 scenario where they (APC) bigwigs denied the party the opportunity to continue occupying the Dennis Osadebe Government House and warned that the NWC must not treat the matter with kid gloves to avoid factions.
“If anyone tells you that we are not worried about what is happening in regards to the Edo governorship ticket, that individual is economical with the truth. We shouldn’t have allowed the primary election to get to the stage of one aspirant or the other seeking redress in court. Once this has happened the possibility of working as a formidable team will be elusive and that is what the other parties want. We may have played into their hands unknowingly. But let’s see how it plays out.”
Labour Party celebrates victory over Apapa
While the ruling PDP and the major opposition APC are enmeshed in almost unending crises over the outcome of their various primary elections, the LP seems to have sat back to rediscover itself with the victory of its National Chairman, Julius Abure over the Lamidi Apapa faction at the Appeal Court last week.
Moments after the judgment, the Party’s National Publicity Secretary, Obiora Ifoh said, “It is now clear that only the Abure-led NWC has the power to nominate candidates for the Edo election. We use this opportunity to ask those irritants to seek elsewhere to foment their trouble. The Labour Party is as good as winning the Edo election.”
Adding to this claim, the spokesman for ObiDatti Campaign Organization in the 2023 Presidential election, Yunusa Tanko said, “We have always been saying that there is no leadership issue as regards to Julius Abure and this has been cleared by the judgment of the Appeal Court and so it has just put us on a more strong standing for us to rejig our apparatus and work together as a team so that we can win the Edo State election, it’s as simple as that. Every hand must be on deck to ensure that we deliver Olumide Akpata as the next governor of Edo State. That’s exactly what we will do; we will continue to work together as a team to achieve this.”
A staunch member of Obidient, Benjie Osavwbovo recalled that Governor Obaseki was the first governor who lamented that the Obidients were taking over every political space in Edo State before the 2023 general elections and his fears came true.
“Don’t forget that when Peter Obi joined the LP, we Obidients took over Edo State and I am sure you know the result. This time around, we are ready to replicate even more than what we did in the presidential election. Since they used all means and court to deny us some governorship positions, we will be more vigilant and astute in the Edo election. Thank God the so-called Apapa faction is dead and buried. There is no more distraction. We have only one candidate and that is Olumide Akpata and we are going to the polls as a united force.
“Whether all these postulations will translate to an unknown candidate in the class of dark horse in the race would eventually emerge the winner of the September 21 polls or status quo will remain is a mystery that will unfold after the electorates have performed their civic responsibility on that fateful day. But properly inform those tagging Akpata as a dark horse that they are making a huge mistake. A former NBA President who weathered the storm to become the first non-Senior Advocate of Nigeria to lead the NBA even at a younger age cannot be said to be a rookie in the game of politics. We are hopefully taking over the Dennis Osadebe government house in Benin after September 21,” he said.
