- Customs generates N1.75trn in Q1, surpasses revenue target by 6.47%
The International Monetary Fund has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3 percent, down from its earlier projection of 3.2 percent made in October 2024.
The revision, published in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, was presented during the Fund’s Spring Meetings in Washington DC.
According to the report, Nigeria’s growth is expected to slow further to 2.7 percent in 2026. The downward revisions reflect a global slowdown in economic activity, driven largely by weakening demand and rising trade tensions.
On April 9, crude oil prices fell to $59 per barrel, their lowest since February 2021, significantly below Nigeria’s budget benchmark of over $70 per barrel.
This dip, according to IMF Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, is primarily due to declining global demand rather than excess supply.
“So it’s the weakening of global activity that is driving the decline in prices.
“There’s been some increase in supply coming from OPEC Plus countries, but broadly speaking, the decline is mostly coming from weaker demand. So, that is going to play out in ways we’d expect: the commodity exporters are going to face lower export revenues from the decline in oil prices,” Gourinchas said at a press briefing in Washington DC.
He explained that the situation would weigh heavily on commodity-exporting nations’ fiscal outlooks and overall economic growth
While Nigeria’s growth outlook has dimmed, it remains ahead of South Africa’s, whose GDP is projected to grow at just 1 percent in 2025 and 1.3 percent in 2026.
Globally, the IMF also cut its 2025 economic growth forecast to 2.8 percent, a 0.5 percentage point downgrade from its January projection.
The Fund cited escalating trade tensions, particularly following sweeping U.S. tariffs on multiple trade partners, as a key factor for the revision.
In an unscheduled update to its WEO, released just ten days after U.S. President Donald Trump announced blanket tariffs, the IMF warned of serious implications for the global economy.
“We are entering a new era as the global economic system that has operated for the last 80 years is being reset,” said Gourinchas.
The IMF also revised global inflation forecasts upward, projecting inflation to reach 4.3 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026 driven mainly by price pressures from the new tariffs, especially in advanced economies.
Global trade is expected to suffer further. The Fund slashed its 2025 trade growth forecast by 1.5 percentage points to 1.7 percent less than half the pace recorded in 2024 blaming it on deepening economic fragmentation, disrupted supply chains, and fading investor confidence.
“Trade will continue,” Gourinchas stated, “but it will be less efficient and more expensive, as businesses struggle to determine where to invest, source products, or secure components.”
Among the countries facing significant downgrades is the United States, where the IMF revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2.7 percent to 1.8 percent. Growth in 2026 is now projected at 1.7 percent.
Though a recession is not anticipated, Gourinchas said the likelihood of a downturn in the U.S. has risen from 25 percent to 37 percent, citing policy unpredictability and rising inflation.
U.S. headline inflation is expected to hit 3 percent in 2025 one full percentage point higher than the January forecast.
Gourinchas emphasized the need for vigilance by monetary authorities, urging the Federal Reserve to act decisively to keep inflation expectations in check.
“Many Americans are still feeling the effects of the inflation spike during the COVID pandemic,” he added.
Responding to concerns over political interference in the Federal Reserve, Gourinchas stressed: “It is absolutely critical that central banks maintain their independence in order to sustain credibility in managing inflation.”
The IMF also downgraded forecasts for China and several major economies due to the ripple effects of the U.S. trade measures, which have driven global tariffs to levels unseen in more than a century.
While the IMF maintained its five-year global growth projection at 3.2 percent, it noted that this is well below the 3.7 percent average seen between 2000 and 2019, and warned that a meaningful rebound would require “significant structural reforms” in major economies.
Despite the growing uncertainty, Gourinchas assured that financial markets have remained stable.
“We are not seeing a stampede or a run to the exits. The international monetary system remains resilient for now,” he said.
Customs generates N1.75trn in Q1, surpasses revenue target by 6.47%
Meanwhile, the Nigeria Customs Service generated N1.75 trillion in revenue in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing its quarterly target of N1.65 trillion by N106.5 billion, according to the Comptroller General, Adewale Adeniyi.
Speaking at a press briefing in Abuja on Tuesday, Adeniyi said, “I’m pleased to report the Service’s revenue collection for Q1 2025 totaled N1.75trn.
“Against our annual target of N6.58trn, the first quarter’s proportional benchmark stood at N1.65trn.
“I’m proud to announce we’ve exceeded this target by N106.5bn, achieving 106.47 per cent of our quarterly projection.
“This outstanding performance represents a substantial 29.96 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024, where we collected N1.35trn.”
He highlighted that in January, the Service generated N647.9 billion (18.12 per cent above the monthly target).
February saw a revenue of N540.1 billion (1.3 per cent above target), and March yielded N563.52 billion, exceeding its goal by 2.7 per cent.
On enforcement, the CG said the Service made 298 seizures with a total Duty Paid Value of N7.7 billion in Q1.
“This represents a significant 78.41 per cent increase compared to the N4.32bn recorded in Q4 2024, however, when compared to Q1 2024’s N9.59bn, the Service observed a 19.70 per cent reduction in DPV.
“Rice remained the most prevalent seized commodity, with 159 cases involving 135,474 bags valued at N939.31m.
“Petroleum products followed with 61 seizures totaling 65,819 liters at N43.3m DPV.
“22 narcotics interceptions valued at N730.75m, reflecting our intensified focus on combating drug trafficking.
“The Service also recorded three high-value wildlife product seizures with a remarkable N5.65m DPV, underscoring both the lucrative nature of this illegal trade and our commitment to environmental protection under international conventions.
“Other notable seizures included textile fabrics (13 cases, N134.2m DPV), retreaded tires (5 cases, N104.6m DPV), and pharmaceuticals (1 case, N17.18m DPV).”
Adeniyi said improved compliance was due to sustained stakeholder engagement and visible enforcement outcomes.
He added that the Service handled trade valued at N36.32 trillion in the first quarter, with import SGDs reaching 327,928 and a CIF value of N14.81 trillion.
“This represents a 5.28 per cent increase in the number of import transactions compared to the 311,492 SGDs processed in Q1 2024, reflecting growing confidence in our trade facilitation measures,” he said.
The mass of imports rose by 40.14 per cent from Q1 2024, and CIF value went up by 26.72 per cent.
On the export side, the NCS processed 8,153 SGDs, a drop from both Q4 and Q1 2024. However, export volume hit 5.03 billion kg, a 348 per cent leap from Q1 2024, with CIF value stable at N21.51 trillion.
Despite the success, Adeniyi noted some challenges, saying “Exchange rate volatility, implementation and subsequent suspension of the Financial Customs Service Operation (FCSO), and non-compliance, particularly in the form of smuggling” impacted operations during the quarter.