The decision by the People’s Democratic Party Governors’ Forum – the main opposition party’s circle of Governors – to distance themselves from any planned political merger or coalition of opposition parties ahead of the 2027 general elections, represents a watershed in opposition politics.
Strangely, no political bigwig in the opposition parties, not least in the PDP, saw the unexpected disapproval of the PDPGF coming.
Analysts say the move came as a surprise and may be a nail in the coffin that seals the fate of any move by the opposition to oust the All Progressives Congress-led administration of Bola Tinubu.
On Monday, April 14, 2025, the PDPGF came out of a disputable political limbo – especially as it had to do with the role they will play in the coalition and merger plans – to announce that they are not game to support the proposed pooling of resources and structure by the opposition.
In a communiqué issued at the end of its meeting in Ibadan, Oyo State, the PDPGF, through its chairman and Governor of Bauchi State, Bala Mohammed, suggested but not directly expressed that the coalition or merger plan was dead on arrival.
The Forum said, “Noting the nationwide speculations about possible merger of political parties, groups and or associations, the Forum resolved that the PDP will not join any coalition or merger.
“However, the PDP as a major opposition party welcomes any party, persons or groups that are willing to join it with a view to wrestling power and enthroning good leadership in 2027.”
After the PDPGF made their intentions known, many in the opposition parties said that the Governors had sold their souls to President Tinubu and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, whom many accuse of being the puppet master of the PDPGF.
But the Governors are unfazed, and have left no one in doubt about their resolve to continue the PDP political tradition in Nigeria, irrespective of whose ox is gored.
A former governor of Ekiti, Ayo Fayose, says any coalition intended to stop President Tinubu’s re-election in 2027 will fail.
Fayose, a member of the oppositionPDP spoke on Friday when he featured on a national television programme.
He said the decision of the PDP governors indicates that Abubakar has no backing for his coalition talks.
“Their coalition is a dead horse ab initio. Tell me one positive person or well-respected Nigerian that has given his voice in support of this coalition,” Fayose said.
“The (PDP) governors’ actions and statement in Ibadan is to tell Atiku: we are not with you, we are going nowhere, we have our own identity.
“So, that coalition is just in the imagination of people trying to bring it to fruition. Let me say to you, it is a waste of time.”
Fayose claimed that governors in opposition parties prefer Tinubu to Abubakar.
He said the PDP needs to resolve its internal crisis before entering a coalition.
“I publicly worked against Atiku, and I am saying for the second time, if Atiku comes again (to contest), I will work against him. It is time to learn our lesson.
“After eight years of a northerner, it is the turn of a southerner, which could involve someone from the east, South West or South South,” the former governor said.
Fayose blamed the crisis in the PDP on the alleged breach of the party’s zoning arrangement.
“Those who gave or zoned power back to the north caused all these problems,” he said.
Fayose added that party members ought to respect unwritten agreements on zoning.
ATIKU ABUBAKAR
The former Vice President of Nigeria is perhaps the politician who will lose the most following the blockbuster announcement of the PDPGF.
Atiku has been leading the charge for a coalition from day one, and to his credit, has won over many converts.
However, Atiku has shown humility as he continues to assemble a united front that aims to wrest power from the APC.
The former Vice President once stated that he was willing to shift grounds for other presidential aspirants that will be in the opposition. He also said it is not compulsory he be the opposition’s standard bearer.
After the PDPGF attempted to throw spanner in the works by denying the proposed coalition, Atiku said he told a delegation of PDP members from Nasarawa State, led by Jibirin Sabo, and a delegation of National Opinion leaders, led by Yusuf Banki that the coalition train had left the (train) station – an analogy to the views of the PDPGF coming too late.
“Indeed, the coalition Train has left the station and would have multiple stops to bring on board Nigerians of all shades,” Atiku said.
And while informing the delegation of two groups that the coalition train is being powered by Nigerians who are desirous of reclaiming and rebuilding their country, Atiku disclosed that the coalition is known as “The Nigerian Movement.”
A political analyst, Benedict Njoku, said about the PDPGF, “I don’t think anyone saw their position coming.
“Obviously, Atiku did not carry them along as the opposition was perfecting strategy to launch the so-called pan-Nigerian coalition.
“I don’t think the governors were assured of returning unopposed when they seek re-election in 2027, so they (Governors) want to remind Atiku that they are indispensable.
“So, if Atiku can address all grey areas, the tide will turn. But let’s wait a while to find out.”
PETER OBI
The former Governor of Anambra State and candidate of the Labour Party in the last election, Peter Obi, may also lose big.
Obi has accelerated his opposition duties across the country and continues to win more supporters. His supporters celebrate him for being a smart politician.
He has also been lauded for understanding that he will come up short in another election if he goes into battle in the presidential election with the Labour Party.
The former Anambra State Governor’s new fellowship with Atiku is, therefore, understandable.
But forging a coalition will also mean huge loss for the Labour Party – the party that shook the foundation of politics in Nigeria during the last election and for the first time had several elected officials holding various offices.
The coming coalition, according to the handwriting on the wall, means that the LP – and Obi himself – will not consolidate on its remarkable success in 2023, and Obi’s imminent departure is at the centre of that.
Recently, Obi visited the Governor of Bauchi State, Bala Mohammed, at his home and the polity was awash with the news of their meeting.
Nigerians did not need a crystal ball to tell them that the planned coalition would be elaborately discussed by the two men.
Later on, the Bauchi State Governor said that he was all pumped up to work with Obi in 2027.
But Governor Mohammed is the chairman of the PDPGF. His group has now said an emphatic ‘no’ to the birthing of the coalition, likely leaving Obi at a loss.
A current affairs analyst, Alex Nwadike, said, “The governor of Bauchi State has shown that there are no permanent interests in politics.
“How can you say you want to work with someone but don’t want the coalition he is a part of?
“It simply goes to show that Governor Mohammed of Bauchi wants Obi to defect to the PDP and when that happens, then they can happily work together.”
NASIR EL-RUFAI
The former Governor of Kaduna State understands full well the powers that Governors have in Nigeria.
After his former party, the APC, took over the reins of power in 2015, El-Rufai had so much influence among members of the ruling party’s Governors’ forum that he even challenged some of the decisions of then President Muhammadu Buhari.
“El-Rufai also knows that the PDP governors don’t like him. That is why the forum denied the rumoured El-Rufai-Obi 2027 ticket when it was spreading like wildfire”
Today, the former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory is no longer with the APC and has moved to the Social Democratic Party – one of the many opposition parties vying for relevance in Nigeria.
Analysts therefore say that El-Rufai has an uncertain future in the planned coalition.
His new party is not a powerhouse and will be at the bottom of the pecking order in an opposition coalition. Political pundits say this will put paid to El-Rufai’s hopes of becoming a presidential or vice presidential candidate.
El-Rufai might, therefore, be willing to accept a high-ranking position in a coalition government if they win the presidential election, but the decision of the PDPGF will be his worst nightmare and make a mess of all his permutations.
A political analyst, Ifiok Usanga told The Point, “Among all the opposition politicians, El-Rufai is the one that has the biggest political ambition, as well as appetite, and the decision of the PDPGF should be a big blow to him.
“El-Rufai is a strategist. He knows that every vote matters in an election and that the governors’ withdrawing their support means lesser votes for the opposition.
“El-Rufai also knows that the PDP governors don’t like him. That is why the forum denied the rumoured El-Rufai-Obi 2027 ticket when it was spreading like wildfire.
“The rejection of the coalition by the PDPGF means that El-Rufai will never be able to sit on the negotiation or resolution table with the five PDP governors.”
