In 2027, the curtain will fall on the administration of Babajide Sanwo-Olu, the incumbent Governor of Lagos State, after eight years of presiding over the affairs of the cosmopolitan state, and as to be expected, qualified politicians will jostle for the state’s top job to determine who would be sworn-in as its 16th governor.
Although Governor Sanwo-Olu still has 29 months to serve, the polity is already charged as potential aspirants eyeing his seat have embarked on exploratory footwork.
Those considered to be aspiring for the Alausa Round House on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress include President Bola Tinubu’s son, Seyi Tinubu; serving Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa; immediate past Lagos Governor, Akinwunmi Ambode; and Senator Tokunbo Abiru
The main opposition People’s Democratic Party, PDP, 2023 Candidate, Abdulaziz Olajide Adediran (Jandor); and his Labour Party, LP, counterpart, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, are still nursing the ambition of governing the state.
It will, therefore, be “Rumble in the Jungle,” in a few years’ time in Lagos State when a candidate from Sanwo-Olu’s ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, and those from opposition parties do all in their power to not only stake a claim for political dominance, but also walk off with bragging rights for at least four years.
However, unlike the 1974 “Rumble in the Jungle” heavyweight boxing match between the late Muhammad Ali and George Foreman in Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of the Congo), which Ali won via knockout in round 8, the governorship candidate that clinched victory in Lagos State must win the popular vote.
“The election will be filled with surprises and shocks. And there will also be heartbreaks, betrayals and suspense galore”
A political commentator, Alex Nwadike, told The Point, “In the 2027 governorship election in Lagos, no candidate will be a small fry. It is Lagos we are talking about here. All of them will bring something unique to the table.
“The election will be filled with surprises and shocks. And there will also be heartbreaks, betrayals and suspense galore.
“And let us not forget that Sanwo-Olu will be out of the picture by then. It will be an opportunity for a new candidate to shine.”
Another Lagos-based analyst, Edith Nna, said, “The candidate that can carry the people along will certainly win the next election in Lagos State.
“What I am saying is that unless you are a people-person candidate, you would end up wasting your time in Lagos.
“Things will be interesting in Lagos in 2027 and the various political parties will take no prisoners.
“I think that the APC will find a way to win. The party and its candidate should expect to deal with a likely alliance between the LP and PDP, but we will just have to wait and see.”
In no particular order or importance, therefore, The Point lists the names of some candidates that could throw their hats in the ring in 2027 to claim a slice of Lagos State.
Seyi Tinubu
Seyi, 39, is the son of Nigeria’s President, Bola Tinubu, who governed Lagos State from 1999 to 2007 before snapping up the presidency in 2023.
A highly successful entrepreneur who many say is honing his skills in politics, Seyi’s name has become like a recurring decimal as the battle for Lagos State gathers momentum.
In the outset, however, the news of Seyi’s potential takeover of the Lagos State Government house at Alausa, Ikeja, came like a bolt out of the blue.
A couple of weeks ago, he was endorsed for Lagos State governorship position by the Coalition of Nigerian Youth Leaders and the Friends of Seyi Tinubu, and since then, political machineries, at least in the commercial nerve centre of the nation, have gone into overdrive.
A chieftain of the APC, Joe Igbokwe, called the endorsements “a needless distraction” for the President, adding that the task of “ruling Lagos is not the job of boys.”
So far, Seyi has not rebuked the groups that are recommending him for the governorship seat and some analysts say it is a tacit approval of their actions.
Seyi’s body language often says that he is enamoured of governance. He enjoys being a part of his father’s Government, even attending Federal Executive Council meetings, before the President put a stop to it.
“Some APC chieftains are of the opinion that Tinubu is a master planner and can spring surprises at any given time”
However, Lagos PDP spokesperson, Hakeem Amode, rejected the idea, saying, “Lagos will not serve him.”
He questioned whether governorship should become an inheritance, suggesting that it was inappropriate for a son to inherit such a role from his father.
“Governorship is not a gift,” he stated, stressing that if the Tinubu camp were to resort to tactics similar to those used in Ondo and Edo States in the past, it would be met with resistance.
He further reminded that many Lagosians did not vote for Tinubu in the last presidential election which was an indication that they would not support his son for governor.
Earlier, the Coalition of Lagos Indigenous Youths also condemned the idea of a Tinubu family member taking over the governorship, insisting that non-indigenes should not be allowed to govern Lagos State.
But the spokesperson for the All Progressives Congress in Lagos, Seye Oladejo, dismissed the conversation about the 2027 elections as premature.
“It is too early to be discussing the 2027 elections,” he said, urging people to focus on supporting the current government.
He said, “We should rally behind the governor and the president now to advance development.”
Mudashiru Obasa
Obasa, 52, is an APC chieftain and the current Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly.
He is a no- nonsense politician who does not mince words when he airs his views.
Following the March 18, 2023 governorship election in Lagos State – the Labour Party in the State had given the APC something to be worried about – Obasa controversially said that the laws passed by the 10th Lagos State House of Assembly, wherein he had been re-elected for a fifth term, would be made to protect the interests of indigenous people of Lagos State.
Anyway, Obasa will fancy his chances of winning the APC governorship primary in Lagos State.
He has been winning elections since 1999 when he first contested a Councillorship seat in Agege Local Government.
In 2007, he was elected into the Lagos Assembly, where he is representing Agege Constituency I, and fast-forward to 2015, he became the Speaker of the House – a position he holds to this day.
Although Obasa has addressed the “rumours” swirling around his potential governorship ambition by stating that he has not given serious thought to it.
He, however, pointed out that he is qualified to land the plum job.
During the 2025 budget presentation by Governor Sanwo-Olu, Speaker Obasa seized the opportunity to clear the air on his rumoured governorship ambition.
Obasa took the shine off the main issue of fiscal policy presentation.
The assembly, led by Obasa had left everyone wondering what was going on and had kept the governor and his deputy waiting for a long while before sauntering into the hollow chamber to embark on business of the day.
The obviously fatigued audience and guests, who expected an open apology from the speaker for the delay, had to swallow the embarrassment as nothing of such happened. Apparently, in preparation for the game that was about to unfold, the majority of the lawmakers spotted dark specs, shielding their countenance from the glare of the public.
Instructively, Obasa remains the longest-serving Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly who also commands immense grassroots support and is known for his resilience in overcoming political challenges.
“Obasa’s strong ties to local communities particularly also make him a force to reckon with as regards his alignment with the Mandate Group, which further strengthens his position.
Earlier, a vote of confidence was passed on the Speaker by all the lawmakers present at plenary.
Speaking on the occasion, Obasa said: “May I use this medium to sensitise us more on the need to build and sustain our party, the APC regarding our focus for 2027. We need to continue to mobilise people just as I do frequently.
“I have made it a personal task to mobilise people on the platform of Mandate, which has been misconstrued by some political detractors as being a selfish aspiration on the ground for me to become governor of the state.
“There is the need, however, to correct this wrong impression. My concern is about building our party, and whatever we do is mainly for this cause.
“To the blackmailers who have embarked on the mission to distort and redefine our mission, let me state it unequivocally here, our intention is to promote our party on the platform of Mandate.
“Also, becoming governor is secondary; it is something that I have not given serious consideration. Nevertheless, that does not mean I am too young or lack experience to run; whereas those who have been before me are not better off.
“Today, we want to assure Mr. Governor that this honourable House will look at the budget and do the necessary scrutiny as usual.
“But it should be noted that this institution remains resolute. We will never be disgraced, abused or ridiculed in the name of creating a seamless working ambience.
“The Assembly would not delay the passage of the budget, but we will be interested in placing a high premium on the need to ensure that the interests of Lagosians are protected socio-economically and politically.”
The question now on everyone’s lips is whether non-indigenes living in Lagos State would support him should he decide to make a dash for the coveted governorship seat.
Obafemi Hamzat
An important member of the APC, Kadiri Obafemi Hamzat is probably the “forgotten man” in the race for the Lagos State governorship position.
Indeed, despite being the Deputy Governor of the state and being competent enough to step into Sanwo-Olu’s shoes, not much political clout is coming Hamzat’s way.
He also enjoys the trappings of political pedigree. His late father, Olatunji Hamzat, was actively involved in governance and became, in 1979, the Lagos State Commissioner for Transportation during the administration of the late Lateef Jakande.
Obafemi Hamzat is 60 years old and might not be forgiven by his supporters if he does not have a crack at becoming a governor.
In 2015, his first attempt at doing so did not bear fruit. He stepped down for Sanwo-Olu before the primary and was thereafter nominated as his running mate.
Hamzat is one of Tinubu’s originals. This is because from 2005, he worked as the Commissioner for Science and Technology in Lagos State under Jagaban.
Analysts argue that Lagosians may not take Hamzat seriously should he decide to make the Lagos hot seat his own.
And if push comes to shove, some party buffs believe that Sanwo-Olu might not endorse Hamzat’s candidacy, considering that he (Sanwo-Olu) reveres the President, whose son might be in the running for governorship.
Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour
In 2023, Rhodes-Vivour thought he would be the APC’s Waterloo in Lagos State, and why not? His party, the LP, outshone the APC in the State in the presidential election and the 41-year-old was sure the feat would be replicated at the governorship level.
Unfortunately, in the last election, Rhodes-Vivour came out second best. He will, however, have the opportunity, in 2027, to “right the wrongs” of the 2023 governorship election.
Interestingly, now that Seyi Tinubu has come into the mix as a potential contestant in the governorship race, Nigerians have started to compare him to Rhodes-Vivour, hoping that a worthy political battle would ensue between them.
Rhodes-Vivour has also rejected calls to switch allegiance to the PDP or APC and will not have anything to do with the two parties, now or in the future.
He also has a jinx to break. He is yet to win a major election, and not even when he contested the Chairmanship seat of Ikeja Local Government did he taste victory.
This is why analysts believe that 2027 will be do-or-die affairs for Rhodes-Vivour. Thankfully, he still has the backing of the Obidient movement and other young Nigerians who are rooting for him.
To his credit, Rhodes-Vivour takes his opposition duties seriously. He has often criticised the Lagos State Government and as 2027 approaches, he will not let up.
Abdul-Azeez Adediran
He is known as Jandor and will gladly tell any doubting Thomas that he has not given up his ambition of governing Lagos State.
Adediran who came in third during the last governorship election is the chairman of the Lagos4Lagos movement.
He was also the candidate of the PDP in the 2023 gubernatorial election and chose movie producer, Funke Akindele, as his running mate.
Although Akindele brought some flavour to Jandor’s campaign, analysts are of the view that a more politically savvy running mate would have made more difference for Jandor.
There was a bit of back-and-forth between Jandor and a chieftain of the PDP, Bode George, before the last governorship election in the State and going forward, stakeholders agree that in 2027, only a united PDP can defeat the APC.
Jandor clocked 47 recently and messages from the PDP in Lagos State indicate that he is still highly thought of and respected in the party.
The party, despite “the ultimate electoral victory,” which eluded them in 2023, considers Jandor’s efforts at the polls “a triumph.”
Whether Jandor will work with other potential candidates is not yet certain. Last year, shots were fired when he suggested that governorship candidates should not have godfathers, utterance analysts say was directed at Sanwo-Olu and Rhodes-Vivour.
How Sanwo-Olu’s successor will emerge in Lagos State
Factors that will shape who emerges the candidates of the leading parties and winner of the poll proper include the choice of President Tinubu, indigene ship, religion, zoning, and Governor’s Advisory Council, GAC, of the APC among others.
Sanwo-Olu, a Christian succeeded Akinwunmi Ambode, another Christian.
By 2027, Christians would have been in the saddle for 12 straight years, which is four years short of the 16 years that Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Babatunde Fashola (who are Muslims) spent.
Thus some are angling for Ambode’s return to complete 16 years for Christians before power returns to Muslims in the state.
Indeed, some of those who stepped down their ambition in 2023 to allow Sanwo-Olu complete his second term, are angling to succeed the governor.
With the benefit of hindsight, Sanwo-Olu’s emergence as governorship candidate in 2019 came as a surprise to many after the ouster of the incumbent Governor Ambode by the power bloc in the APC led by the Jagaban himself, now President Tinubu.
Sanwo-Olu emerged as a consensus candidate after Tinubu’s endorsement. The rest is history.
His second term bid, however, came with its challenges following widespread rumours to dump him for some personalities such as the then Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila, now Chief of Staff to the President; the then Lagos State Head of Service, Hakeem Muri-Okunola, fondly called HMO.
However, the move was, subsequently, debunked by HMO who is now the Principal Officer in the Office of Mr. President in Abuja, and Musiliu Obanikoro, and a few others.
Sanwo-Olu’s second term ambition received a boost when Gbajabiamila, during a local television programme, extolled the competence and leadership style of the governor, saying he had no immediate plan to contest, and stressed that the Governor must not be distracted on the good job he was doing.
Gbajabiamila also cleared the air on his rumoured ambition to contest for the Lagos’ governorship seat in 2023, saying he had “no immediate plan” to contest.
He said the task before him as the Number 4 citizen in the country was enormous and tough enough for him to be distracted by the rumour.
Also, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, a returnee to APC, who was also said to be interested in succeeding Sanwo-Olu, debunked the report, saying his statement was misconstrued by those peddling it.
The current Senator representing Lagos East Senatorial District, Tokunbo Abiru was also touted to be eyeing the Lagos number one seat in 2027 after completing two terms in the Senate.
Some APC chieftains are of the opinion that Tinubu is a master planner and can spring surprises at any given time.
