BY BRIGHT JACOB
Judging by the continued saber-rattling of the military junta in Nigeria’s northern neighbour, Niger Republic, as well as the possibility of a military intervention by sub regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States, the democratic legacies of Nigeria’s president, Bola Tinubu, is expected to be put to the test should diplomacy fail to resolve the lingering political crisis rocking the country.
Apprehension rose to a crescendo after a former commander of the Nigerien presidential guard, Abdourahamane Tchiani, staged a coup d’état on July 26, 2023, and proclaimed himself as the country’s new military leader.
His National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland toppled the president, Mohamed Bazoum, whom he (Tchiani) swore to protect, thereby leaving Tinubu and other West African countries’ leaders with no option but to restore constitutionally order in Niger.
Though Tchiani said the coup was an offshoot of the revolution sweeping through former French colonies in West Africa, which he also claimed would free the natural resources-rich but poor West African country from the “unfavourable” influence of France, the African Union, European Union, the United States of America and the United Nations have all condemned the coup.
Niger, however, has political support in Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea – countries in the sub region with military heads of state, as well as Russia and its paramilitary mercenary force, the Wagner Group, who have given the Nigerien military a bit of bragging rights.
As a precautionary measure, most foreign countries have evacuated their citizens from Niger, but France has refused to do so, or even evacuate its embassy, and the junta, greatly miffed, had declared the French ambassador in Niamey, the country’s capital, persona non grata. Even so, the French have decided to stay put in their embassy building which is currently under blockade by the Nigerien authority.
Incidentally, two months before the coup, Tinubu was inaugurated as president of Nigeria in May. In July, before the coup took place, he emerged as the Chairperson of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of the Economic Community of West African States.
He was elected chairperson at the 63rd Ordinary Session of the regional bloc held in Bissau, capital of Guinea-Bissau and in his speech, he condemned coup d’états in West Africa.
“We must stand firm on democracy. There is no governance, freedom and rule of law without Democracy.
“We will not accept coup after coup in West Africa again. Democracy is very difficult to manage but it is the best form of government,” Tinubu had declared.
A democrat to the core who has seen firsthand the horrors military juntas foist on their citizens, and himself being wanted and having to flee Nigeria, away from gun-toting soldiers under the late Sani Abacha who seized power after the June 12 , 1993, presidential election was annulled and the resulting Interim National Government sacked, Tinubu was determined to right the wrong of the Niger junta.
Small wonder after the coup, he talked tough and, together with ECOWAS, demanded the junta relinquish power and reinstate Bazoum within seven days.
That did not happen, but instead of deploying the full might of ECOWAS in Niger, Tinubu veered to diplomacy, sending a team which included a former Nigeria head of state, Abdulsalami Abubakar, to meet with the junta.
The junta later agreed, after some back-and-forth with ECOWAS, to a three year transition plan, but ECOWAS, through its Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, Abdel-Fatau Musah, rejected it and insisted constitutional order be restored as quickly as possible. Musah also called the junta’s transition plan a “cat-and-mouse game”.
All eyes are now on Tinubu. His every move and decision on the Niger impasse is critical. He has an adamant junta to contend with and what he will be remembered for if ECOWAS gives the order for an invasion is also critical.
A medical practitioner, Sunday Shotinloye, said that invading Niger would not be good for Tinubu’s legacy. According to him, an invasion would mean that ECOWAS was waging war against all the other countries that are at loggerheads with France, their colonial master.
He called for the continued application of wisdom in handling the situation in Niger Republic.
Shotiloye also said that it would be more ideal if Nigerians remember Tinubu for being diplomatic than for using the military to invade Niger.
He also noted that ECOWAS has been talking tough only “to let people know they are active”.
“An invasion will not be good…not only for Tinubu, but for you and me, and for every Nigerian and even for the whole of West Africa. This is because invading the Niger Republic means that you are waging war against all the other countries that are at loggerheads with France.
“One must continue to be wise in handling such situations. One cannot just afford to do anything that will backfire,” Shotinloye said.
Continuing, he said, “Tinubu and his advisers may have been talking tough, but I am sure they are also playing the diplomacy card, too. It is not as if they want to show people they are serious about military intervention.
“I am not sure they are even ready to really go kinetic….I do not think so because it will be asking for too much trouble. One has to be very careful, but you need to let the people know you are active. That is what ECOWAS is doing so that no one messes around with constituted authority,” he said.
Asked whether a military success in Niger Republic should justify an ECOWAS intervention in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea, Shotiloye said, “Those countries are belated. They (ECOWAS) cried out against them but not the same way they cried out when it was Niger Republic’s turn.
“And we all know why the cry was much more. There is a greater vested interest for all parties in the Niger Republic than in those other countries,” he added.
“Nobody prays for war or deployment of force. We all know what is going on in Ukraine currently. The military intervention did not necessarily go the way the Russians planned on paper. And, of course, you cannot rule out the humanitarian crisis that goes along with such an invasion”
In his own opinion, the president of the Academic Staff Union of Polytechnics, Anderson Ezeibe, said it would be “quite unfortunate” for Tinubu’s legacy if the former Governor of Lagos State, with ECOWAS, went ahead to intervene militarily in Niger Republic.
In his assessment, military interventions do not always go as planned. The repercussions of such an exercise, according to Ezeibe, will not bode well for Tinubu’s legacy.
The lecturer at the Department of Chemistry, Federal Polytechnic, Nekede, Owerri, Imo State, also mooted the continued use of diplomacy.
“Well, a military intervention would be quite unfortunate for Tinubu’s legacy. It will not be in his best interest, nor will it be in the best interest of Nigeria to lead ECOWAS into military intervention in the Niger Republic.
“Nobody prays for war or deployment of force. We all know what is going on in Ukraine currently. The military intervention did not necessarily go the way the Russians planned on paper. And, of course, you cannot rule out the humanitarian crisis that goes along with such an invasion.
“Though we want democratic governance to be sustained in Niger Republic and Africa, it will be nice if we use diplomatic options to actualise this instead of military force. And like I said, military force will trigger a lot of issues … ..humanitarian crisis, destruction of the economy of the nation affected, and not just that nation, but that of Nigeria, too,” Ezeibe said.
Asked whether Tinubu should be celebrated and encouraged to invade Mali and Burkina Faso if ECOWAS succeeds in Niger Republic, Ezeibe said ECOWAS should not count their chickens before they hatch.
He was also of the view that there was no end to diplomacy, and that diplomatic channels would still be the best option for addressing the situation in Niger Republic.
Ezeibe said, “They better not count their chicken before they hatch. One challenge we have with military interventions is that it does not guarantee that it will exactly go the way it is written on paper, the way the generals planned it, the timeframe given for actualisation of whatever aims and objectives (they have).
“In the Russia-Ukraine war I mentioned earlier, nobody expected it to last beyond two weeks. I am even sure the Russians are surprised it has lasted this long.
“Niger Republic may likely not be different. Even Mali and Burkina Faso may as well get involved in the crisis and it will not be a walk in the park for ECOWAS.
“I expect that diplomatic channels will be explored. And remember, there is no end to diplomacy. ECOWAS should continue to avail themselves of the options available for addressing the situation….that is why it is called diplomacy.
“And then gradually, even though it is going to be a painstaking effort, but of course, it is going to be bloodless, which is the most important thing that will serve Tinubu’s legacy well,” Ezeibe concluded.
However, a public affairs commentator, Ifiok Usanga, disagreed with Shotinloye and Ezeibe
He said, “Military interventions are not popular because no one wants war. I agree. I do not want war, either, but the truth is that sometimes war can be used to bring order and peace. We must not shy from this truth.
“The US that most Nigerians admire so much today went through wars of their own in the past. Some of the former great presidents of America fought wars and today the country is more united.
“If the junta in Niger is going to be recalcitrant, they should be shown the exit door. ECOWAS must not give room for more coups. If they do, even English-speaking West African countries like Nigeria, Senegal and Ghana will not be safe and secure. Let ECOWAS permanently deal with the trend once and for all,” Usanga concluded.
