Once the darling of Nigerian voters, the Social Democratic Party welcomed a former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, into its fold last week and for the first time in a long while, the party has begun to draw a lot of attention.
The SDP is one of the two political parties – the other is the National Republican Convention – that were formed in 1989 by the military junta of former Head of State, Ibrahim Babangida, to convince Nigerians of his ambitious plan to hand over power to a democratically elected government.
Despite Babangida constantly fiddling with his transition timetable by shifting earlier announced election dates, the SDP became the party of choice for the late political great, Moshood Abiola, and many other progressive politicians who joined it in order to have a platform for realizing their dreams of winning the June 12, 1993 presidential election.
The election was annulled and Babangida set up an Interim National Government that was infamously sacked by then-Chief of Defence Staff, the late General Sani Abacha.
Abacha, who went on to become one of the most brutal Heads of State Nigeria ever had, banned political activity of any kind and dissolved every democratic institution in Nigeria, including the SDP and the NRC.
And so like Princess Aurora who fell into a deep, enchanted sleep in Disney’s film, Sleeping Beauty, because of a spell that was cast on her by the evil fairy Maleficent, the SDP also caught some Zs until it was revived in 2014.
In the film, it was a charming Prince’s “true love’s kiss” that woke Aurora from sleep but it took the concerted effort of a former Presidential candidate who ran on a joint Alliance for Democracy-All People’s Party ticket in the 1999 presidential election, late Olu Falae, and other Nigerians, like former Afenifere leader, Reuben Fasoranti, to resuscitate and re-launch the SDP.
Falae and co were of the view that Nigeria’s two big parties, the Alliance for Democracy and the People’s Democratic Party had failed the people and their “kiss” to the SDP would revitalise a movement.
The members of the SDP said that they wanted to address poverty and other national ills Nigeria was facing, but try as they might, their once illustrious party name and horse logo failed to get them into power.
Analysts say that El-Rufai will have to do something out of the ordinary to “change the destiny of the SDP.”
After the 2023 general elections results were received, the SDP did not win any governorship seat in Nigeria. It won two House of Representatives seats and two Senatorial seats in the National Assembly.
El-Rufai will, therefore, have his work cut out for him.
Many analysts say that the next election will show how popular he truly is among the Nigerian electorate.
Nevertheless, with the 2027 general elections knocking on the door of Nigeria, some keen political observers still agree that the spotlighting of the SDP because of its burgeoning romance with El-Rufai has come to stay and can be a game changer.
This explains why the same observers cannot wait to see how the political equilibrium of Nigeria will be affected by the party’s coming to the political playground.
Before El-Rufai made the big switch from the APC to the SDP, many Nigerians had already written him off and suggested that the amiable Mallam no longer packs a punch. They also insisted that he has lost political influence.
One such Nigerian is Reginald Anene who told The Point, “Even in his Kaduna State, El-Rufai has lost relevance. He will never ever be able to win Kaduna South that is populated by Christians, because they detest him and Tinubu’s tenure has favoured southern Kaduna.
“So, where is this so-called influence of El-Rufai coming from?
“Kano is between Abdullahi Ganduje and Rabiu Kwankwaso.
“You go to Sokoto, it is Aminu Tambuwal and in the North East, El-Rufai cannot even encroach there – Borno State is under lock and key for Vice President, Kashim Shettima, and current Governor, Babagana Zulum.”
Despite the upbraiding voice of his detractors, El-Rufai, in a statement he circulated about his defection from the APC, said in part that the ruling party was no longer practicing internal democracy.
He added that the ruling party was following a “capricious trajectory.”
The embattled former governor said there was a need for him to seek another political platform for the pursuit of the “progressive values” he cherishes.
He added, “I have now decided to join the Social Democratic Party, and adopt it as the platform for our future political engagements and activities.
“Without prejudice to this decision, as a member of the SDP, I will focus on engaging with and persuading other opposition leaders and parties to join us and congregate under a unified democratic platform to challenge the APC in all elections and bye-elections between now and 2027 by the Grace of God.
“I therefore call on all our supporters and other persons concerned about our country’s future to join us in the SDP in the journey towards making Nigeria flourish as a beacon of pride for Africans and the Black Race.”
El-Rufai during an interview with the BBC, called on the trio of Obi, Abubakar and Aregbesola to form a political alliance with him towards the 2027 elections.
“My wishes and prayers are Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, Rauf, all opposition leaders to come and join SDP, not to do a merger or to register a new political party,” he said.
“What pains me is that the government we supported and had confidence in would do well because we saw what Tinubu did in Lagos despite his challenges.
“We all know about his issues in Chicago, but we thought if he could replicate his work in Lagos for Nigeria, let’s support him. However, he failed,” he said.
El-Rufai clarified that his presidential political ambition in 2027 would depend on the party and the will of the people.
“It is not for me to decide; it is the party and the people that will decide. Even when I was contesting for governor, it was people that met and convinced Muhammadu Buhari, and he called me and asked me to contest,” he said.
In a show of solidarity, some politicians at the top of the SDP hierarchy have become El-Rufai’s biggest cheerleaders. They are hoping that the veteran politician will make the party stronger and a serious contender in the general elections.
The party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 presidential election, Adewole Adebayo, welcomed El-Rufai warmly to the SDP and averred that the party has gotten an “avid worker.”
Adebayo said, “On behalf of the teeming members of the SDP and patriotic democrats, who believe in Nigeria and her promise of inevitable greatness, I heartily welcome my dear brother El-Rufai to our party.
“With the hardworking and sagacious Mallam joining our ranks, an avid worker for the people has been enlisted in our forces against poverty and insecurity.”
The National Chairman of the SDP, Shehu Musa Gabam, had also welcomed El-Rufai and revealed that the party was set to welcome more high-profile politicians, including Governors and lawmakers.
Although he did not mention any name, the elated Gabam distanced the SDP from those who he said are clamouring for a merger of political parties.
“El-Rufai’s move has ignited a political shift. More prominent figures from the ruling APC and other parties are expected to follow suit.
“The SDP is not in alignment with the proponents of a merger of political parties. It is a recipe for chaos,” Gabam said.
A political analyst, Collins Ugorji, told The Point, “The SDP is a great party; we can’t take that away from them. The fact that they are still existing today shows that they are a serious political party that means business.
“A number of political parties that came on stream in the period the SDP was revived have become defunct. They are no longer functioning. There is something special about the party and I respect that fact.
“Therefore, El-Rufai joining them will actually make them stronger. But there is a catch.
“El-Rufai can make the SDP stronger but it will count as nothing against Tinubu. And do you know why that is so? It is because Tinubu is now like an institution in Nigeria.
“I respect everyone in the SDP, but concerning the party, I will respectfully say that you can lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink.”
Another analyst, Benedict Njoku, who also spoke with The Point said, “I don’t think El-Rufai sincerely believes that the SDP can lace the boot of the APC.
“The man knows that his new party cannot bully the APC. We saw how he analysed Obi’s chances with the Labour Party in 2023.
“And mind you, El-Rufai joined the SDP because he wants to participate in founding a new party. He is good at doing that.
“El-Rufai left the PDP to join the Congress for Progressive Change which later merged with other parties to form the APC.
“That old playbook is in operation again. This is why I will not be surprised if the SDP forms some kind of alliance or teams up with the Labour Party to forge a united front.”
Njoku also explained that if an alliance with the Labour Party falls through, the SDP would find it difficult working with the New Nigeria People’s Party or the PDP.
“If an alliance with the Labour Party does not happen, it will be really hard for the SDP to work with any other big political party.
“The PDP and the NNPP will not see the wisdom in doing so, anyway. El-Rufai has already rubbished the PDP publicly when he said that the party is a shadow of its former self. And as for dancing with the NNPP, that class or session will be dead on arrival.”
