The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States will take place today, Monday, January 20, 2025, on the West Front of the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C.
It will be the 60th U.S. presidential inauguration and the second inauguration of Trump as U.S. president, marking the commencement of his second and final non-consecutive term as U.S. president, the term of JD Vance as the 50th U.S. vice president, and the only non-consecutive re-inauguration for a U.S. president after the second inauguration of Grover Cleveland in 1893.
Trump’s first inauguration was eight years earlier, in January 2017.
In the wake of the 2024 U.S. elections, speculation over Donald Trump’s return to office has been sky-high, especially in the Global South.
Trump’s first term saw an America-first approach, characterized by a recalibration of foreign aid, a trade-focused agenda, and often contentious rhetoric towards Africa.
Now that he returns to the White House after a momentous victory, the implications for the African continent would be complex and multifaceted, affecting areas such as economic partnerships, security collaboration, and diplomatic relations.
Under Trump’s first presidency, the economic ties between the U.S. and Africa were marked by a reduction in multilateral aid and a pivot towards bilateral trade. Trump’s administration was critical of China’s expansive influence on the continent, focusing on countering China’s economic footprint rather than increasing U.S. economic involvement.
A second Trump presidency might further limit multilateral trade agreements in favour of deals focused on direct U.S. economic interests, potentially sidelining African development goals in favour of mutually profitable trade relations.
Trump has historically emphasized reciprocal trade over aid, seeking to reduce Africa’s reliance on aid and encourage self-reliance through trade deals. However, this approach could mean reduced U.S. financial aid and support programmes, such as those targeting health and education.
“If Trump’s foreign policy maintains an America-first stance with reduced commitments to Africa, countries like China and Russia may continue to gain ground in the region.”
His administration previously advocated for private investment as a means of creating jobs and infrastructure on the continent, favouring African countries that demonstrated economic reform and transparency. African nations open to such models might benefit from private investment, but those heavily reliant on aid could find themselves struggling to replace lost U.S. support.
Security remains a key aspect of U.S.-Africa relations, with ongoing U.S. support for counterterrorism initiatives across regions facing violent extremism, such as the Sahel, Somalia, and Nigeria.
In his first term, Trump took a limited engagement approach, focusing on strategic and cost-effective solutions, which included scaling down U.S. military presence and operations in Africa. It is not certain if Trump might stick to this same approach in his second coming.
However, Africa’s need for security support to combat extremist groups may not align with Trump’s America-first ideology.
If U.S. resources are scaled back, African nations could see a rise in influence from alternative powers like Russia and China, which are increasingly active in Africa’s security space.
African governments may seek alternative security partnerships, potentially altering the continent’s geopolitical alignment and heightening competition among global powers vying for influence in the region.Trump’s previous rhetoric on African nations was often criticized as dismissive, casting doubt on the sincerity of U.S. diplomatic efforts.
While the Biden administration worked to reset and strengthen U.S.-Africa diplomatic ties, Trump might disrupt this momentum in his presidency.
His administration’s sharp criticisms, alongside travel restrictions on certain African countries, fueled anti-U.S. sentiments in some regions, which could resurface and even deepen under a renewed Trump presidency.
The U.S. image on the continent could be affected by how Trump approaches African immigration and foreign relations.
His first term saw visa restrictions and policies that limited opportunities for Africans to work and study in the U.S. This not only discouraged mobility but also stymied the U.S.’s soft power influence, a gap that other nations, particularly China, have been quick to fill by welcoming African students, workers, and leaders.
A Trump presidency might also include trade agreements between the US and the African market.
Africa’s climate vulnerability is increasingly pronounced, with droughts, floods, and environmental degradation affecting millions.
However, Trump has historically shown skepticism towards climate change science and withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement during his first term.
While the Biden administration recommitted the U.S. to global climate action, Trump’s return might bring another withdrawal or a reduction in U.S. funding for climate adaptation programmes that benefit African countries.
This rollback could be particularly detrimental for African nations dependent on international aid to combat the ravages of climate change on the continent.
Should Trump de-prioritize climate funding, African countries may find it challenging to mobilize the resources needed to build climate resilience, especially as they contend with severe climate-related disasters.
If Trump’s foreign policy maintains an America-first stance with reduced commitments to Africa, countries like China and Russia may continue to gain ground in the region.
China has established itself as Africa’s largest trading partner and a key lender, while Russia has made significant inroads through security assistance and strategic partnerships.
An isolated U.S. approach under Trump might lead African countries to further align with these powers, particularly in areas like infrastructure development and security where U.S. involvement wanes.
Africa could see a mixed landscape of opportunities and challenges in Trump’s second presidency. While some African economies might benefit from a shift towards self-reliance and reduced aid dependency, others may struggle without U.S. support in critical sectors like healthcare, security, and climate resilience. The continent’s leadership will likely seek to diversify partnerships, hedging against unpredictable U.S. policies and embracing alternative allies as necessary.
