On Saturday, October 1, Nigeria’s flag of independence was 62 years.
At 62, many were still checking to see if there was indeed any reason for celebrations.
Reasons for pessimism are not hard to find. Major statistics for the economy, security and human development paint a picture of a country in despair.
There was a time when the naira, Nigeria’s currency, was stronger than the American dollar. Those were the days Nigerians didn’t need a visa to travel to countries like the United Kingdom.
There were also the days when Nigeria’s democracy was strong.
There were times when Nigerian universities were highly regarded globally and scholars looked forward to sabbaticals.
There were times when the University College Hospital in Ibadan was among the best hospitals in all the Commonwealth nations.
In the 1980s the Nigerian immunisation coverage was above 80%, an indication of an effective healthcare system.
Today, the story is not that inspiring.
The Nigerian political space seems to be moving in the right direction with democracy being in place in over 20 years for the first time since 1960.
Yet the country has not attained the kind of economic development its people imagined would be forthcoming. Nigeria faces acute poverty, youth unemployment, institutional corruption and widespread insecurity.
The social lives of Nigerians which began quietly in 1960 with the concern for other people’s wellbeing and welfare have been turned upside down with the highest levels of insecurity caused partly by the hegemonic ambition of one group, one tribe or one religion to dominate others and by economic quagmire wrapped solidly in corruption and mismanagement since the advent of oil money into our economic calculations.
The insecurity we used to know was limited to sporadic attacks by some bandits in North Central Nigeria particularly, armed robbery attacks in the South and, later, kidnapping on limited space also in the South.
The economic outlook was promising as Nigeria moved away from the civil war in 1970 into the oil boom of 1974, quadrupling oil prices, and started implementing the subsequent Development Plans. The financial sector started growing in terms of structure and volume of activities from the 70s up to the 90s.
“Buhari may be remembered for the higher cost of living that has put pressure on large swathes of the electorate”
Following three attempts, President Muhammadu Buhari won the Nigerian presidential election in 2015, on a promise that he would turn the ailing economy around, tapping into his background as a retired military general to end insecurity.
His phrase “if we do not kill corruption, corruption will kill Nigeria” became the de facto slogan of his election campaign. It hinged on three major pillars: economy, security, and corruption. His promises won him another term in 2019.
However, seven years down the lane, and as Buhari prepares to leave office next year, it is doubtful whether he has made good on his election promises.
Nigeria’s economy entered recession twice in five years during Buhari’s tenure. The initial one during his first full year as president in 2016 was Nigeria’s first recession in 25 years. The trigger was the dip in oil prices and the reduced capacity to produce crude oil as the price fell from $112 per barrel in 2014 to $50 per barrel in August 2016 and crude oil production reduced by about 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.56 million bpd.
In 2020, global pandemic-induced lockdowns led to a sharp decline in demand for oil, which resulted in the dip in oil prices from $60 per barrel in December 2019 to as low as $18 per barrel in April 2020. Even as oil prices are now around $100 per barrel for the first time in seven years, Nigeria has not been able to meet the quota allotted to it by OPEC and it is unable to benefit from the oil price spike.
Nigeria’s unemployment rate quadrupled from 7.98% in 2014 to 33.3% in 2020 under Buhari. By 2021, 23.2 million people in Nigeria were unemployed. 52.6% of first degree holders, 45.7% of master’s degree holders and 37.6% of doctorate degree holders were either unemployed or underemployed. 42.5% or over 12.7m young people are unemployed.
Capital flows to Nigeria declined by more than half from over $20bn in 2014 to over $9bn in 2015. It further declined almost by half the following year, after which it has consistently grown until the country had another recession in 2020. It has since dipped to $6.7bn in 2021 from over $22bn in 2019.
Last year, 24 states out of 36 and the Federal Capital Territory attracted zero investments. 10 of those 24 states had not attracted investment in the past three years.
The government has resorted to borrowing since it has not been making enough revenue and not attracting sufficient foreign capital. Buhari’s administration doubled Nigeria’s debt to GDP ratio to 35% in 2020 from 17.5% in 2014.
Inflation is one of Buhari’s major sins, especially among the poor people who are his strongest electoral base.
The annual inflation rate in Nigeria accelerated to 20.52 percent in August of 2022 from 19.64 percent in the previous month, above market expectations of 20.25 percent and remaining at the highest since September 2005. Food inflation quickened to 23.12 percent from 22.02 percent in July amidst higher prices for staples including rice and bread. Also, a weakening naira continued to pressure the cost of imports up. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 1.77 percent, following a 1.82 percent increase in July.
As a president whose political messaging and economic agenda slant have revolved around supporting poor and ordinary Nigerians, Buhari may be remembered for the higher cost of living that has put pressure on large swathes of the electorate.
To return to its glory days, Nigeria must deepen its democracy and invest more in the education and empowerment of its largely youthful population.
The most valuable resource the country has is its people and not petroleum or any other natural resources. This would in turn have an impact on the state of security in the country while ensuring an enabling environment for sustainable development.
To solve its human capital development challenge, Nigeria needs to fix its universities. Strikes have plagued Nigeria’s university system for the better part of three decades, beginning in 1988. At the heart of the problem are disputes over arrears of unpaid salaries and repeated failed promises of the government to fund public universities.
Indeed, the need to fix education and ensure that Nigeria’s youthful population is employable cannot be over-emphasized.
