Yes, of course, the schedule of Wale Edun, Minister of Finance, as Coordinating Minister of the Economy, includes providing foundational, but realistic ideas to turn around the economy of Nigeria for the better.
Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, Minister of Budget, is responsible for planning the Nigerian economy, as it was done by Prof Adebayo Adedeji, Federal Commissioner for Economic Planning and Reconstruction of the post-civil war military government of General Yakubu Gowon.
But it appears that Edun is more concerned with fiscal policies of the government and does less of coordinating the economy, safe for ad-hoc assignments given to him by President Bola Tinubu, just as Bagudu concentrates more on the arithmetic of the national budgets, and not so much on planning the economy.
It is not very obvious that both ministers have been thinking of reviving the economy, and not just managing the cash flow effects of the removal of petrol subsidy and flexible exchange of the naira, policies which Edun probably thinks are enough to reshape Nigeria’s economic landscape.
While Edun may have neglected new macroeconomic policies or conceptual frameworks for the economy, Bagudu doesn’t seem to remember the five-year development plans that can provide the building blocks of the economy as they should have been conceptualized by Edun.
By using development plans, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics surpassed America’s economy to the extent that, by the late 1950s, the USSR was able to finance the first orbit of the earth by Russian astronaut, Yuri Gagarin.
Development plans swiftly placed the USSR economy ahead of America’s economy that hitherto practically financed the Allied Forces’ prosecution of World War II efforts against Axis Powers led by Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Germany, and the post-war Marshal Plan to stabilize Europe’s economy. Unfortunately, development plans were thoughtlessly jettisoned by military President Ibrahim Babangida for a strange animal that he called “Rolling Plans.”
The omissions of Edun and Bagudu give one the impression that the government is without economic direction- which leads to the wonderment that maybe there should be a “Minister of the Economy” to think out foundational economic policies for the nation.
“But it appears that Edun is more concerned with fiscal policies of the government and does less of coordinating the economy, safe for ad-hoc assignments given to him by President Bola Tinubu, just as Bagudu concentrates more on the arithmetic of the national budgets, and not so much on planning the economy.”
By the way, the motive of Edun’s strange directive that foreign currency outside of the banking system must be deposited in bank vaults is not quite clear. His coyness when discussing the subject gives the impression of someone having a hard time concealing something that the public must not know. But then, it may just be his manner of speaking.
The “Minister of the Economy” may be assisted by a Council of Economic Advisers, with members that should include economists, sociologists, philosophers, scientists, technologists, investment bankers, corporate managers, labour leaders and entrepreneurs with factory-floor experience in agriculture, mining, manufacturing and the service industry, and not just Harvard or GQ types.
The minister must search for cutting-edge technology that meets today’s global peculiarities.
It appears that this was the job of economist Patrick Sanwo, founding Editor of Business Times, when he was Lagos State Commissioner for Economic Planning and Establishment under Col Adekunle Lawal during the Generals Murtala Muhammed/Olusegun Obasanjo military era.
Much will particularly be expected of Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, who may be spending a much longer period as Minister of Trade, Industry and Investment than Doris Nkiruka Uzoka-Anite, in the areas of stimulating, diversifying the economy, reducing poverty, creating wealth and employment.
To break Dr. Oduwole’s task into brass tacks, or the details of the immediate and practical actions that she must take, one could say that trade, or the process of exchange of commodities, is a synonym for the economy.
Whereas industry is another name for productive enterprises, or the real sector and service enterprises, investment is the exchange of money for the acquisition of assets, like stocks, bonds, lands, properties and others that yield streams of revenue over the usually long period that they are held.
Dr Oduwole should be thinking of at least a five-year development plan, like the 1962-1968 Development Plan that was packaged for Nigeria by the World Bank under the Abubakar Tafawa Balewa government.
She must also be thinking of the nature, volume and growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product of the Nigerian economy. She cannot run the economy by merely coasting along on the current template.
Luckily for her, President Tinubu has envisaged a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
She must prove wrong, naysayers, like investment banker Bismarck Rewane, who insists that, because about 75 per cent of Nigeria’s economy, with the current growth rate of 3.19 per cent, contracted in the second quarter of 2024, it may be impossible to achieve President Tinubu’s $1 trillion dream within the next five or six years.
Dr Oduwole should be earnestly pushing the President to ensure that Ajaokuta Steel Mill is fully operational immediately and encourage local manufacture of industrial plants, machinery, spare parts and raw materials, critical components of the silver bullet template that will make the economy productive.
As she is reading the tea leaves of trends in digital technology, she should also be thinking of how to motivate and herd local and foreign investors into Nigeria’s agricultural, mining, manufacturing and service industries.
It is realistic to recognize that though it may no longer be at the centre stage, the Industrial Revolution of steamships and the wheel may not have been completely replaced by the New Information Age and its attendant convergence of telecommunications, broadcasting and computer technologies. Though it’s not looking as if the Luddites will be able to halt or roll back the digital march, wise economic planners must recognize the existential importance of the traditional economy.
Dr. Oduwole should have a clearly defined plan to revive the textile industry and grow automobile manufacturing companies. She should assemble experts who can advise her on the kind of technology, the volume of investment, and the template for running the exceedingly critical electricity sector of the economy.
In addition, she should think about training and re-training entrepreneurs to learn the appropriate skill set, aptitude and attitude for the new kinds of industries that will achieve the economic dream that President Tinubu has for Nigeria.
As for investment, Dr. Oduwole is already well-prepared: She is an attorney, who knows how to suture together various kinds of business templates. As a former czarina, former Special Adviser to the President on Ease of Doing Business and Secretary to the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council, she knows how the ecosystem of business should work.
With a PhD in International Trade and Development, with a concentration on the strategy of the World Trade Organisation, formerly known as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, Dr Oduwole will certainly know how to handle the international aspect of Nigeria’s trade.
As a member of the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement Implementation National Action Committee of Nigeria, she should be able to neatly integrate the West African sub-region, if not Central and East African sub-regions, into Nigeria’s economic planning orbit.
If she is truly the thinker that she is reputed to be, Nigeria may just be on its way to the promised economic future.
