An economic historian, Dr. Tunji Ogunyemi, of the Faculty of Arts, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Osun State, has said Nigeria may not get over the current economic recession until year 2022.
According to Ogunyemi, the mistakes of the past governments and dependence on oil led to the economic recession rocking the nation.
He stressed that the country may remain in the economic doldrums for the next six years before it could be pulled out.
Ogunyemi, therefore, advised governments at all levels to invest more in agriculture and encourage Nigerians to take up farming as a means of surviving the crisis.
Speaking in Osogbo, the university don also advised the Federal and state governments to cut down on their wasteful spending, adding that the remuneration package of political office holders should equally be drastically reduced.
He lamented that civil and public servants usually detached themselves from agriculture once employed, stressing that it was high time Nigerians, including workers and graduates, engaged in farming to survive the recession. Ogunyemi advised government against laying off workers, saying it should rather give jobs to more unemployed graduates and encourage them to farm. He said, “Before the Minister of Finance, Mrs Adeosun, declared that Nigeria is in recession, we have even known this six months earlier. Since productivity has reduced, investments contrasting and people losing jobs, then one should know that the country is heading to recession.
“When you have recession, you should look at the past rather than the future for the causes. Mismanagement of resources, unforseen contigencies, distortion in the system, careless management of surplus, because between 2011 and 2014, we had huge income from petroleum.
“It is an enclave economy and most Nigerians are isolated from the oil. When anything happens to oil, it affects Nigerians fundamentally. Now, 26 out of 36 states in Nigeria are insolvent and have no capacity and idea to pay their workers’ salaries.”
Tracing the history of Nigeria’s past economic recessions, Ogunyemi disclosed that, “There was a massive recession from 1929 to 1945 (16 years of deep recession). But between 1954 and 1966, there was a huge gain from oil and Nigeria abandoned agriculture and exportation of palm oil, cocoa and others.
“From 1974 to 1979, there was another fundamental recession before the emergence of Olusegun Obasanjo. In 1982, there was another recession.”
According to the economic historian, Nigeria’s economic system had been managed by default rather than by design, stressing that most of Nigeria’s president could not foresee the future.
“A president of a country should be a prophet that would foresee the future. I don’t want to sound apocalyptic but in truth, I don’t see us (Nigeria) getting out of this recession until 2022. We have a duty to tell Nigerians the truth,” he said.
On how to get out of the recession, Ogunyemi said there should be a moratorium on wasteful spending by government while political office holders’ salaries should be reduced.
