Okowa, Wike top ‘possible running mate chart’
How Obi, Makinde stand
Why PDP can’t zone presidency to South
I’ll make my interest public when time is ripe – Atiku
BY AUGUSTINE AVWODE, AKINWALE ABOLUWADE, TIMOTHY AGBOR, BENEDICT NWACHUKWU AND AGNES NWORIE
Almost 28 years since he nurtured the ambition of becoming Nigeria’s President, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar has not shown signs of backing down.
As the race for who gets the presidential ticket of the two major political parties hots up, there are strong indications that Atiku may, again, return to the presidential race, on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, ahead of the 2023 general elections.
In 2019, he contested in the presidential election where he garnered 11.2 million votes and won 17 states, including the nation’s capital, Abuja. However, this proved not to be enough as President Muhammadu Buhari polled 15.1 million votes, a victory margin of 3.9 million.
For keen observers, the handwriting has always been on the wall since the 2019 presidential election, that the PDP is not ready just yet to discard Atiku.
Indeed, various sources disclosed to The Point that giving Atiku another chance come 2023 had been a clear and major tendency in the party, all things considered.
The party leadership believes, just as many Nigerians, that his performance in the 2019 election was more than excellent but that he was outwitted by the system and powers that be.
The first major signal that the party still reposed enough confidence in Atiku came barely 18 months after the 2019 election, on October 3, 2020, when the party chairman, Uche Secondus, declared diplomatically in Bauchi that the PDP would not discriminate against any person that might want to contest the presidential election on its platform in 2023.
The remarks came after about a two-hour meeting held at Ramat House, Bauchi, by the leadership of the party, which included Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State, PDP Deputy National Chairman (North), Senator Nazif Gamawa; a former President of the Senate, David Mark, and the state governor, Bala Mohammed, among others.
“In 2019, he contested in the presidential election where he garnered 11.2 million votes and won 17 states, including the nation’s capital, Abuja. However, this proved not to be enough as President Muhammadu Buhari polled 15.1 million votes, a victory margin of 3.9 million
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“There is no room for discrimination. Everyone is qualified, young, old, governors, non-governors are qualified to contest and we have the space for everyone; if you win, you become our candidate. The door is open to everybody,” he had said.
A source told The Point that Atiku was currently very positive about 2023 and that anyone thinking otherwise might be living in delusion.
The source, who would not want to be named, said, “Let me tell you, he is passionate about the country and the fact that things have gone really bad saddens him. He is ready, and not hiding behind a finger in the name of anything. He was in Kano for the President’s son’s wedding and he was in Delta to attend Governor Okowa’s dad’s burial today (Saturday). The party stands a better chance with him.
“The party is aware he has a much better understanding of the Nigerian question. The question of whether to dismember the fragments of the federation; or restructure its rubrics to accept and facilitate common good of which the latter is his utmost desire.”
He added, “He believes that the enterprising Ndigbo should be reintegrated into the fulcrum of Nigeria. Allow them the opportunities to ‘belong’ in every sense of the word. He doesn’t want a piecemeal relationship in governance. He believes in the stanza of the previous Nigerian anthem that ‘though tribe and tongue may differ, in brotherhood we stand’.
“His vision of an industrialised Nigeria through agrarian economic growth and modern tech knowhow is the only way to create sustainable jobs and income and ultimately attract Foreign Direct Investments.”
On what the party’s position on zoning could be, the source said it would be most likely thrown open with a caveat.
“It is most likely going to be open; yes open. But the inside talk is for a consensus candidate before going into the primary election,” he hinted.
Asked if that was why the zoning committee that was to have been inaugurated last Thursday did not hold, the source said he was not sure, but asserted that zoning the presidency to the South by the PDP would deny the party the chance to regain power.
“I am not sure but zoning (it) to the South will deny the party the Presidency. The party needs to win and this best chance can’t be repeated. First, Atiku won the 2019 election but the cabal schemed him out. He lost the election when INEC cancelled the initial date.
“Security and intelligence reports showed he was going to coast home to victory. Late Abba Kyari and Isa Funtua allegedly hustled the INEC chairman into postponing the elections on some flimsy excuses,” he pointed out.
Another impeccable source, who spoke on the leaked letter of Atiku to the party in Ondo (a letter trending on the social media but which The Point could not ascertain its originality), did not deny or confirm the authenticity of the letter but said enough for anyone to take a position.
He said, “There had been speculations that former Vice President Atiku would run in 2023. The letter didn’t come (to him) as a surprise. The letter only shows that his hat is in it. The PDP will lose the election if it zones the presidency to the South because of political expediency.
“If the APC is given another chance, it means that it will put Nigeria on sale. The squabble within the party (PDP) only attests to its acceptability. It is only a good product that everybody would want to have
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“If you look very well, you will discover that the body language of the party leadership is that it might either zone the presidency to the north in 2023 or leave it open. It is very visible. The party wants to win back the Presidency. The people in the country are not getting the best deal from the ruling APC.
“There is insecurity, there is hunger, there is massive unemployment, external debts are mounting, poverty is growing astronomically, people are finding it increasingly difficult to meet their daily needs and public health is in shambles. Look at the new found past time of kidnapping for ransom, banditry and armed robbery.
“All these challenges are good enough to be used for campaign but election is about figures. Once you cannot get the figures, you are out. So, your first assignment is to calculate and figure out how to get the figures, and in doing that, there is no room for sentiment.”
The source, a top PDP chieftain, argued that the party leadership was considering what many people were not particular about. And that is the fact that in the PDP, the North has only had less than three years out of the 16 years the party had spent in power.
He said, “Many people don’t see the bigger picture which the party leadership may be looking at with all that it can muster to handle it with care. PDP was in power for 16 years, right from OBJ (Obasanjo) time to GEJ (Jonathan) time and the two of them spent 13 years and 25 days altogether. They were from the South.
“The north had only the late Umar Musa Yar’Adua, and he unfortunately spent only two years and 341 days in office. Can you see the point I am making? So, the PDP as a party does not have a strong case to zone its presidential slot to the South. That’s the truth and the party knows it.”
When challenged on what he made of the southern governors’ recent demand in a communiqué that the next president should come from the South, the source dismissed it as “mere political talk to please the ears.”
“Well, it may sound awkward but I will let you know that it was mere political talk to please the ears of their supporters. If they were serious, they would have picked one of them or micro zoned it to any of the three zones, say South-West, South-South or the South-East and they will all now say this is the direction we are all going. But nothing like that was done.”
“Was it not after the so called declaration that a chieftain of the PDP from the South-South declared, last week or so, that only a candidate from the North could win the presidency for the PDP? Truth is that the leadership of the PDP knows that giving the ticket to the South is political suicide,” he insisted.
ATIKU/WIKE TICKET A HOAX – AIDE
However, speculative news concerning a joint 2023 presidential ticket of Atiku and the incumbent governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, has been tagged a figment of imagination of mischief makers.
Speaking in a telephone chat with The Point, media aide to the former Vice President, Paul Ibe, said his boss had no link to the news.
He said the peddlers had only succeeded in surrendering themselves to mischief makers who were interested in tarnishing the image of the former number two citizen.
“There is no truth in the news. The former Vice President did not contract anybody or grant anyone interview regarding the 2023 general elections. It was a thank you letter to members of his campaign organisation. Those circulating the rumours have simply surrendered themselves to mischief makers who are going about spreading rumours,” Ibe stressed.
He claimed that if Atiku had an interest, it would not be a speculative insinuation, saying, “He is not in the class of politicians that people will be speculating whether he will contest or not. If he is interested, we will make it public when the time for that reaches, but not through rumour mongering.”
He argued that the former Vice President was a party loyalist who would always abide by the party’s decision and maintained that as one of the pillars of the PDP, he could not jump the gun and begin to make such statements credited to him by mischief makers.
HOW OBI, OKOWA, WIKE, MAKINDE STAND
However, things may not turn out exactly the way they were in 2019 if Atiku emerges as the PDP 2023 candidate once again.
Atiku had as his running mate, former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi. But the choice this time will involve juggling so many options, as current political development and public perception of individuals are concerned.
A source that was very hesitant and reluctant to be drawn into any conversation on the subject eventually caved in and vouched only on assurance of strict confidence that of the possible option of four persons – Peter Obi, Governors Ifeanyi Okowa, Nyesom Wike and Seyi Makinde – Obi curiously had the least chances of being considered.
“The situation on ground today is that approximately 60 per cent of Igbo youths are not interested in anything Nigeria. Not adults, I mean youths. And 60 per cent is a huge figure. Why, because they have been made to believe by IPOB that there is no hope for them in Nigeria. And the present administration of President Muhammadu Buhari has not done anything to reverse that thinking. On the contrary, it has actually aggravated it by its choice of approach. All they want is Biafra. Given that scenario, on election day, these people will not just sit at home, they may even actually prevent others from going out to vote. Election all over the world is about figures. In that case, what figure would you be looking forward to scoring?
“That is number one. Number two, as at the last election, we had a total of 80 million registered voters. The most PDP could boast of from the South East was not up to three million. And as it is now, nobody can say with precision if the Continuous Voters Registration exercise is ongoing smoothly like in other parts of the country. For the youths there in the South East, it is do or die for Biafra, and rhetoric like ‘we will speak to them in the language they understand’ has further worsened the situation.”
“So, considering Obi would be a bad risk. The alternative would be to consider others from the South-South with Igbo affiliation. And that is where Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State and Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State come in,” he stated.
He added, “Any of Okowa or Wike can do the magic. But Okowa holds a marginal edge over Wike. You can see Okowa as a complete gentleman, even though there is no gentleman in politics. He is very calm, unhurried and a calculating go-getter, who appeals to all sections of the party, North, East, West and South; leaders and followers, and for some time, he was also saddled with very arduous and tasking jobs in the party and he delivered effortlessly and without controversies. But his performance at home, comparatively in the South-South states cannot match those of Wike or Emmanuel Udom of Akwa Ibom State.
“Wike is a performer. He is fiercely loyal to the party too and can hardly hide his feelings. But northerners do not like him much. And Igbos, especially youths, are literally at war with him. But give it to him, he is irrepressible. He is a performer, just look at what he is doing in Rivers State. He is very loud, but you can’t take away something from him, when he is convinced, he goes to any length to actualise it. So, much as they resent him, they also respect him because they are aware of what he can do. He could single handedly change a situation, so they give him that respect.”
“If the situation gets to that level of picking between Okowa and Wike, the party will choose one then,” he added.
Governor Makinde, the source hinted, is another person that could fit the bill of a running mate from the South. The Oyo Governor would be the automatic pick for the party from the zone.
“In the South-East, it was more about agitation, no real work. But then, those in the South-West are so divided now, even in the APC, that it would be difficult to present a common candidate agreeable to all
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He said, “If we look at the South West, Ibadan is the political capital of the region from days of yore. And given his performance so far and how he managed to wrestle the state from the APC, you can’t discountenance him. And you may want to know that a lot is ongoing to ensure the unity of the party in the region. Next week, (this week), former Governor Ayodele Fayose and Senator Abiodun Olujinmi would formally settle their differences and once that is done, the party stands a good stead to settle other minor differences and be forward looking to 2023.”
APC IN ‘CATCH-22’ SITUATION
One of the top PDP chieftains who spoke to our correspondent emphasised that the coming election in 2023 would be interesting as the ruling party seemed bugged down with ‘Catch-22 situation.’
He stated, “The ruling party has a complex situation to battle with or fix and that is what I call the ‘Catch-22’ situation. It is generally believed that the party’s candidate will come from not just the South but the South West. It was the gentleman’s agreement between top members of the party.
“Once Asiwaju (Bola Tinubu) was not able to run alongside President Buhari because of the Muslim-Muslim ticket, he loaned, mark my word, loaned Prof (Yemi Osinbajo) to the party.
You know how they do it in football clubs now. Otherwise, Buhari was for BRF (Babatunde Fashola). He knew him, he was sure of his performance in Lagos and all, but Prof was not very well known to him.”
“So, the possibility of the South and in particular, South West producing APC candidate is very high up there. That is why Asiwaju keeps recurring in the 2023 permutation. But the Plan B would be to prop up Prof Osinbajo to contest if Tinubu cannot eventually make it,” the source stressed.
HOW PDP’S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WILL EMERGE
A chieftain of the PDP, Lere Oyewunmi, said Atiku was not the only one that might be interested in the presidential ticket of the party for the 2023 general elections.
He said the party had yet to anoint or declare support for any presidential aspirant and that “the party has not reached that stage.”
Oyewunmi, a former chairman of Irewole Local Government Area and a member of the House of Representatives in the third Republic, in an exclusive Interview with The Point, noted that notable personalities in the party and in general, all Nigerians, would be consulted before the party would produce its candidate.
He said, “We have not reached that stage. All those are rumours. We may still have other people that are warming up. What PDP is planning for now is the congress. The ward congress is on September 25, the local government congress, the state congresses and then the national convention. The people you are talking about are going to be party delegates; the structure that will be used to get them to power is what we are now putting in place. That is the most important thing to the party now more than the candidates.
“When we finish the congresses and national convention is held, and we have a new continuity at the national level, then the PDP is a well organised party. You can have thousands of aspirants, but we are going to have one candidate and presidential candidate is different from a personal ambition. All the leaders across the various spectrums will be consulted – BOT, the NEC, the former governors, the former senators and former presidents.
“We are very fortunate in PDP; we have Baba Obasanjo, we have Jonathan, the former Vice President Atiku, all of them are there. Then, from the ground too, all of us will have a say in who becomes the candidate and we will aggregate our opinion; after consultations with who is who, the traditional rulers, the movers and shakers of each community will be contacted. We are going to aggregate the opinions of Nigerians to present our candidate because the suffering that has been pervading the country now is unthinkable.”
“More than ever before, everybody in Nigeria is interested in who becomes the presidential candidate. They know now and like Baba Awolowo said, if the wise men refuse to participate in politics, they will be ruled by fools and imbeciles. So, everybody now knows that they must be interested in who rules them. So, it’s Nigerians that will decide who becomes the party’s presidential candidate. Even the press will be contacted so that the party will know that this is not a joking matter,” Oyewunmi said.
‘WHOEVER EMERGES PDP CANDIDATE’LL DEFEAT APC’
A chieftain of the PDP in Oyo State, Adebisi Olopoeyan, said, “Atiku Abubakar hasn’t come out to declare his intention to contest as president in the 2023 elections. No aspirant has come out formally to indicate the intention to run. I think time is not ripe for that. That should be after the party’s congress. Aspirants will start showing up after congress and from then, a candidate would emerge. It is until then that we can talk about if Atiku Abubakar or anyone that emerges as the party’s candidate.
“One thing that is sure, however, is that whoever emerges as PDP candidate will win the election. PDP is the party to beat in 2023, so any credible candidate that runs on the platform of the party will win. Summarily put, if Atiku emerges as the party candidate with a running mate, he will win the race.”
On the part of the Publicity Secretary of the PDP in Oyo State, Akeem Olatunji, whoever emerges as the national chairman of the party will determine where the presidential candidate will come from.
He said, “The issue of who flies the party’s ticket has not arisen yet. It is only an armchair analyst that would start speculating about who becomes the PDP presidential candidate at this time. After congress, you can then start. The congress has not even held.
We would first talk of the national convention, it is after then that we would be talking about who would fly the party’s flag.
“You know the PDP believes in zoning. Where the national chairman of the party comes from will determine where the presidential candidate will come from. If the chairman comes from the South, definitely, the presidential candidate will come from the North. It is after the zoning arrangement has been made that we can be talking of having a change.
“It is after the candidate emerges that we can discuss who will be the running mate. It is not in the calculation for now. What is sure is that whoever emerges as PDP presidential candidate will win at the poll. Nigerians cannot continue with the clueless government of APC. As at today (Saturday), naira is about N515 to a dollar. We left it around N187; imagine what it comes to within six years.”
“If the APC is given another chance, it means that it will put Nigeria on sale. The squabble within the party (PDP) only attests to its acceptability. It is only a good product that everybody would want to have,” he argued.
One time Commissioner for Information and Orientation in Ebonyi State, Abia Onyeike, in an interview with The Point, held that Atiku had good chances of winning the 2023 presidential election, because he had overwhelming influence in the party.
He insisted that the only situation in which he would lose would be if the party “decides to go by zoning the presidency to the South.”
He said, “I think Atiku Abubakar has very good chances of winning the 2023 presidential elections if he gets the ticket of the PDP. There are some analysts who believe that Atiku is the best bet for the PDP to get back the presidency. And that could be true.
“Whether he would get the ticket depends on the zoning arrangement to be adopted by the PDP. But he has an overwhelming influence on the party. But if the PDP settles for Igbo presidency, then that could be the only reason Atiku may lose out.”
On his part, the state’s PDP publicity secretary, Silas Onu, said the former Vice President, if given the ticket, had enough experience to win and pilot the affairs of the county to greater heights.
“Of course he is. He has experience and wide reach. But zoning will have to be determined first before we go full-time to discuss who can run,”Onu said.
With his seemingly growing popularity in southern Nigeria, stupendous wealth and the support of some northern elements who believe the North should retain power, many believe Atiku could still become President of Nigeria, since Buhari also accomplished this feat after three failed attempts.
Atiku first contested the presidency in 1993 when the military junta of General Ibrahim Babangida organised the presidential election. Atiku finished third at the primaries of the Social Democratic Party, losing to the eventual winner, MKO Abiola and Babagana Kingibe.
