… global economy to grow by 5.6% … China (8.5%) and America (6.8%) lead 2021 growth projections
BY KENNETH EZE
A growth of 1.8 per cent has been projected for the Nigerian economy in 2021, which can be built on with another growth of 2.1 per cent in 2022.
This is contained in the World Bank’s June Global Economic Prospects released last Tuesday in Washington DC.
For Nigeria, growth was projected to resume at a modest rate of 1.8 per cent in 2021 and edge up to 2.1 per cent in 2022, predicated on higher oil prices, a gradual implementation of structural reforms in the oil sector and a market-based flexible exchange rate management.
“The expected pickup is also predicated on continued vaccinations in the second half of 2021 and a gradual relaxation of COVID-related restrictions that will allow activity to improve.
“Nonetheless, output in Nigeria is not expected to return to its 2019 level until end-2022.”
The report also said that the global economy was expected to grow by 5.6 per cent in 2021, despite many emerging market and developing economies having to contend with repercussion of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The positive global outlook is predicated largely on strong rebounds from a few major economies and would be the fastest post-recession pace in 80 years. It is an upward review from the 4.1 per cent forecast in January by the same institution.
For Sub-Saharan Africa, regional activity is expected to expand a modest 2.8 per cent in 2021 and 3.3 per cent in 2022.
The report stated that positive spillovers from strengthening global activity, better international control of Covid-19 and strong domestic activity in agricultural commodity exporters were expected to gradually help lift growth in the continent.
“Nonetheless, the recovery is envisioned to remain fragile, given the legacies of the pandemic and the slow pace of vaccinations in the region.
“In a region where tens of millions more people are estimated to have slipped into extreme poverty because of COVID-19.
“Per capita income growth is set to remain feeble, averaging 0.4 per cent a year in 2021-22, reversing only a small part of last year’s loss.
“Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, and include lingering procurement and logistical impediments to vaccinations, further increases in food prices that could worsen food insecurity, rising internal tensions and conflicts, and deeper-than expected long-term damage from the pandemic.”
Despite the expected recovery, the bank’s position is that global output will be about two per cent below pre-pandemic projections by the end of the year.
It also cautioned that per capita income losses would not be unwound by 2022 for about two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies.
David Malpass, the World Bank Group President, said that while there were welcome signs of global recovery, the pandemic continues to inflict poverty and inequality on people in developing countries around the world.
He said that globally coordinated efforts were essential to accelerate vaccine distribution and debt relief, particularly for low-income countries.
“As the health crisis eases, policymakers will need to address the pandemic’s lasting effects and take steps to spur green, resilient, and inclusive growth while safeguarding macroeconomic stability.”
