- Fayemi, Amosun, Bakare top analysts’ chart
- ‘Tinubu most prepared, most risky’
AYO ESAN AND LINUS CHIBUIKE, ABUJA
THERE are strong indications that the contenders for the All Progressives Congress’ 2023 Presidential ticket have commenced intense lobbying across party lines, to garner support for their individual ambitions.
While some top APC leaders, who have indirectly made their willingness to put their hats in the ring known, appeared to have slowed down to reassess the situation and restrategise, others have begun to make bold underground moves, through proxies, The Point has learnt.
“All I can tell you for free is that lobbying is going on, behind closed-doors, among governors and in the Presidency”
The jostling, for now, is mainly between South West leaders, particularly those who had been two-term state governors, and some other top political leaders, who have not made their platforms public.
South West has produced the vice president in the last two elections.
Though some of the potential nominees have yet to declare their intentions to their caucus, including loyal aides, some loyalists said they had read a body language clear enough to make them begin underground work.
An impeccable source in the presidency told one of our correspondents that the President, being the head of the party, would have a tough time settling for a candidate to succeed him, owing to the strength of those observers have seen as potential contenders, their varying degrees of popularity among decision makers in the ruling party, as well as their individual relationship with him (Buhari).
He said, “The President is going to have a tough time settling for the choice of a successor, although he is not going to do this without the input of other stakeholders. There are meetings ongoing, but most of the people I have said are all able successors. Some of them are close to Mr. President, but in different ways. It depends on their popularity within the party and how the decision makers feel they will be received by the public.
“But, from feelers at the moment, the South West is favoured to produce the next President, though nothing is sacrosanct.”
The source, who spoke in confidence to our correspondent, owing to the sensitivity of the issue, noted that the race for 2023 had started in earnest.
He said, “I can tell you categorically that anyone looking at the Aso Rock seat must have started preparations now. All the games playing out are against the same 2023. But in Nigeria, nothing is sure until the very last minute.
“All I can tell you for free is that lobbying is going on, behind closed-doors, among governors and in the Presidency.”
Already, The Point gathered that some of the intending aspirants from the South West, who have held top positions in government at the state and national levels, had already appointed aides to test the ground and put formidable structures in place to fly their names in the right places for favourable consideration by leaders of the party.
Campaign documents are also being developed by various groups in different camps to make the job easier, painstaking investigations have revealed.
From The Point’s findings, six South West names currently top the list of possible contenders.
They are: National Leader of the APC, Bola Tinubu; Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State; two-term Governor of Ogun State and Senator representing Ogun Central in the 9th Assembly, Ibikunle Amosun; General Overseer of the Citadel Global Community Church, Tunde Bakare; and Minister of Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola.
Some analysts also said that if Governor Rotimi Akeredolu is re-elected at the October 10, 2020 governorship poll in Ondo State, he may also see himself as qualified to run, but this may be a tough ambition.
TOP CONTENDERS: WHAT THE POINT’S SURVEY SAYS
A week-long survey conducted by The Point on the strengths and weaknesses of the names thrown up as potential APC presidential candidates highlighted their strengths and weaknesses, which the analysts said must be weighed against what they described as the concerns of the majority of Nigerians against the APC administration.
KAYODE FAYEMI
Fayemi was born on February 9, 1965 and he is currently serving as the Governor of Ekiti State. He has been in office since October 16, 2018. He previously served in office between 2010 and 2014 before losing his re-election bid to Ayodele Fayose.
He was also the Minister of Solid Minerals Development in President Muhammadu Buhari’s cabinet, from November 11, 2018 to May 30, 2018, when he resigned to contest for a second time as Governor of Ekiti State.
Strengths, weaknesses
Kayode Fayemi, according to many respondents, brings to the table, significant reach within the Yoruba intelligentsia, and he also has, going for him, a long-term concentration in pro-democracy agitation.
He understands what the issues have been and should have a good understanding of what the issues that have not been resolved are in Nigeria’s democracy. He also has, working for him, the fact that he has a lot of private sector and international experience.
More significantly, he has the advantage of winning a governorship election twice. That gives him the ability to know what really takes place on election day beyond the theories. He also had the privilege of losing an election, so he knows what can also go wrong and how to ensure there are no significant disconnects that could cause real disruptions to electoral victory.
He also comes to the table with a powerful asset in Mrs. Bisi Fayemi, his wife. Many analysts say one can almost craft an “Obama-Michelle” story from them. Mrs. Fayemi brings capacity, drive, and sound articulation of key issues, among others, to the table. When you combine this with what Kayode Fayemi is offering, it can go a long way in shaping opinions.
Aside from this, Kayode Fayemi has a PhD in War Studies. From the theoretical point of view, it means that he has an understanding of the issues around security and security-related matters. It should be relatively easy for him to tackle pressing security issues and get some results.
However, the flip side is that only a few people will readily see him as a great material for the office. Kayode Fayemi may be a bit too avant-garde for the 75 per cent of people who decide election matters in Nigeria. He also needs a lot of work in the area of getting his message to resonate with the downtrodden. His first term as governor was largely criticised in this area. But he has the world at his feet, right now, to change the narrative.
IBIKUNLE AMOSUN
Amosun was born on January 25, 1958 to a Muslim family. Amosun, a chartered accountant, is also an Associate member of the Chattered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria. He possesses a Master of Arts in International Finance.
In April 2003, Ibikunle Amosun was elected to the Senatorial seat of the Ogun Central Senatorial District.
He won the April 2011 Ogun State governorship election and won a second term in office in 2014, after which he handed over to his successor, Dapo Abiodun.
He was, however, elected again, in 2019, as the senator representing Ogun Central Senatorial District in the Ninth National Assembly.
Strengths, weaknesses
According to analysts, Ibikunle Amosun is more like the “take no prisoner, set the agenda, ruthlessly execute the agenda” kind of leader. He works in a calculated manner towards executing a pre-determined agenda. This part of him played out when he was the Governor of Ogun State and he had to develop the road infrastructure against all odds. The beautiful landscape the state has right now might not have been possible without commitment to a cause and doggedness.
One thing he has going for him, which is an asset for the position is that he is a very sure-footed grassroots mobiliser, according to The Point’s survey.
“Ibikunle Amosun is one of those people who would get to the last man in the last corner of the last street, and he is a very hard worker,” a respondent said.
It is on record that, as Governor of Ogun State, he was able to increase the Internally Generated Revenue of the state by 114 per cent. He grew it from N700m monthly, to N7bn, monthly. Backed with his experience as a chartered accountant, this feat can also be replicated at the national level, but he must be able to articulate his goals in a way that would not seem to be anti-poor.
He was also able to tame the insecurity monster in the state for eight years, especially with what many analysts called the unruly state of things in the last lap of his predecessor’s administration. This may be an added strength in a country that needs to deal with insecurity badly.
On the flip side, he can tend to be a bit brash when he needs to get something done, and may not be one to take too many diverse opinions. For the Presidency, he would need to accommodate diverse views.
But, in all, he has great drive and energy to get things done, the survey says. Once there is an agenda, Ibikunle Amosun will execute it.
His closeness to the President is an advantage but clinching the presidential ticket may go beyond the President alone.
BABATUNDE FASHOLA
Babatunde Fashola (SAN) was born on June 28, 1963 in Lagos. He earned a Bachelor of Law degree (LL.B) from the University of Benin in 1987. In November 1988, he was called to the Nigerian Bar as a solicitor and advocate of the Supreme Court of Nigeria. He began as a litigator specialising in different areas at the Sofunde, Belgore and Co.
He became a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) in 2004. With this, he became the first member of the 1988 Law School to attain the position, and the second University of Benin Faculty of Law graduate to receive the honour.
Fashola led Lagos State from 2007 to 2015 and effected several developments, especially in the areas of infrastructure. He is currently the Minister of Works and Housing.
Strengths, weaknesses
Unlike some of his colleagues, who have been governor, analysts say Babatunde Fashola may not pass well for a presidential material in a country like Nigeria.
He is focused, very analytical, deep on research, and not easily distracted, but he comes across more as a right fit for a prime minister to a king or a President. He likes exclusive ideas and does not connect too much with the people.
Though seen as a man of the people when he was Governor of Lagos State, his ideas were more elitist than populist, the survey showed.
YEMI OSINBAJO
Yemi Osinbajo is the Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. A professor of law and Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Osinbajo was born on March 8, 1957 at Creek Hospital, Lagos.
Between 1999 and 2007, Osinbajo was a member of Cabinet of the Lagos State Government where he served as Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice.
From 2007 to 2013, Osinbajo was once again employed as a Professor of Law, Department of Public Law, Faculty of Law, University of Lagos.
After the formation of the All Progressives Congress, Yemi Osinbajo was tasked with other notable Nigerians in the party with the development of a manifesto for the new political party. This culminated in the presentation of the “Roadmap to a New Nigeria”, a document published by APC as its manifesto in 2013.
Strengths, weaknesses
Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, ordinarily, should be someone who should be managed into power, analysts say, having understudied two very strong leaders.
He understudied Bola Tinubu as Attorney General in Lagos and produced a lot of radical reforms. These are very strong points. He is also a vice president under a very strong administration, with all the privileges of studying political players at the highest level, and understanding the conspiracies and what exactly goes into running the country.
Normally, one would say he is an ideal material for Presidency, but there are contradictions, as indicated by unconfirmed allegations flying around projects under him and in relation to other agencies, that must be clearly addressed.
He is cerebral and a very good talking head, but one would want to ask how entrenched he is politically. “Has he been able to build a political platform independent of some other mentors?” This was one major question that was asked.
BOLA AHMED TINUBU
Tinubu was born on March 29, 1952 in Osun State, Nigeria.
He went to the United States in 1975, where he studied first at Richard J. Daley College Chicago State University. He graduated in 1979 with a Bachelor of Science degree in Accounting.
“If a Nigerian is as rich as Tinubu, Nigerians should have a fair idea of how he got his money”
He worked for the American companies Arthur Andersen and GTE Services Corporation. After returning to Nigeria in 1983, Bola Tinubu joined Mobil Oil, and later became an executive of the company.
His political career began in 1992, when he joined the Social Democratic Party where he was a member of the Peoples Front faction, led by Shehu Musa Yar’Adua.
In January 1999, he contested for the position of Governor of Lagos State on the Alliance for Democracy ticket and was elected. He won the second term ticket in 2003.
In 2007, following the landslide victory of the Peoples Democratic Party in the April 2007 elections, Tinubu was active in negotiations to bring together the fragmented opposition parties into a “mega-party” capable of challenging the PDP.
In February 2013, Tinubu’s negotiations in creating a “mega opposition” party paid off with the merger of Nigeria’s biggest opposition parties to form the the All Progressives Congress.
Strengths, weaknesses
Analysts say Tinubu is the most prepared for Presidency, yet the most risky candidate for the APC to put forward. One thing you cannot take away from Tinubu is his mastery of the Nigerian kind of politics and his eagle eye for star performers.
He definitely has the ability and experience to govern a nation as complex as Nigeria. He has a strong political infrastructure to win an election and is also heavy on media. He can put together a very strong team to push the agenda. “But there is a perceived totalitarian, ‘everybody reports to me’ aura around him, which may be dangerous for the Presidency of Nigeria,” respondents said.
There is also an unconfirmed baggage of corruption around him that must be unburdened in clear terms to stop what seems to be a campaign of calumny against his person. To market him as a right fit, a lot of work needs to be done in this area.
“If a Nigerian is as rich as Tinubu, Nigerians should have a fair idea of how he got his money,” a respondent said.
The removal of his close ally, Adams Oshiomhole as the APC National Chairman is also seen as a hindrance to victory strategy. Though loved in the South West, Tinubu’s ambition may not receive enough support, especially in the South East, South South and the North.
TUNDE BAKARE
Tunde Bakare is a Nigerian Prophetic-Apostolic pastor. He was the running mate of the CPC Presidential Candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, in the 2011 presidential election.
He studied Law at the University of Lagos between 1977 and 1980. He was called to the Bar in 1981 and following his NYSC, he practised law with Gani Fawehinmi Chambers, Rotimi Williams & Co and Burke & Co, Solicitors. He established his own law firm, Tunde Bakare & Co (El-Shaddai Chambers) in October 1984.
In May 1988, at the peak of his legal career, he was called into ministry and he founded The Latter Rain Assembly (now the Citadel Global Community Church) on April 1, 1989, and is currently the Serving Overseer of the church.
The Point’s survey says Pastor Tunde Bakare appears to be very prepared for the role. He has always shown, through his preachings, that he has an agenda that can move Nigeria and indeed, Africa, forward, analysts say.
You get the impression that he has been reflecting on the issues for a very long period and has been articulating solutions around them.
Over and above that, there is a can-do spirit around Tunde Bakare. He is the kind of person who doesn’t really see obstacles. He is probably someone who would see an obstacle and work steadily towards surmounting it. You can also see that he is not afraid of leaving his comfort zone.
He has been providing mentorship for political players behind-the-curtain, and getting things done. As Convener of the Save Nigeria Group, he showed that he was ready to dare the consequences once he believed in a cause. The Group’s successful Occupy Nigeria protest against fuel subsidy removal, under the former President Goodluck Jonathan administration, adds a populist image to his personality beyond the pulpit.
The flip side has to do with the question: Can a multi-ethnic, multi-religious country afford a President with the tag of a Christian preacher? But analysts say his close, longstanding relationship with the President and the likes of Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State, among others, may negate any undue worry on religious or ethnic grounds.
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY
Speaking with The Point, a pro-democracy activist and Public Affairs Commentator based in Lagos, David Amubikanun, said it was not too early for people to show interest in the 2023 presidential race.
He reiterated the six names that were thrown up by The Point’s investigation, saying they were on the list of political watchers for the 2023 presidency from the South West region.
“Here, of those on the lips of politicians, I would pick Bakare, Fayemi, Amosun. Others may be hard to sell”
He said, “The names of seven individuals, who are political juggernauts are being speculated for the 2023 presidency. They are Prof. Osinbajo, Tinubu, Fayemi, Amosun, Fashola, Pastor Tunde Bakare and Rotimi Akeredolu, if he wins the October 10, 2020 governorship election in Ondo State.
“Among them, Tinubu, Amosun and Fayemi seem to have an edge. Age may work against Tinubu’s ambition but Amosun and Fayemi stand tall chances with their closeness to the presidency,” he said.
Also speaking with The Point, James Ojo, an Abuja-based public affairs commentator, said the South West was favoured for the 2023 presidency. He spoke in unison with Amubikanun concerning the contenders in the South West.
He, however, said that whoever would emerge must have huge support from the North or “we may have 1999 in our hands again.”
“In 1999, majority of the South West people wanted Chief Olu Falae but the North preferred Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. At the end of the day, Obasanjo won through the support of the North. I will not mention any name but you should understand what I am saying if you are closer to the South West and its politics,” he explained.
Dr. Akande Ahmed, a political analyst, told one of our correspondents that whoever would succeed Buhari must be well accepted, owing to the poor performance of the current admisnitration in terms of the economy.
He said the preferred candidate must be accepted across the religious and tribal lines, to correct some negative perceptions about the APC government and also secure the confidence of Nigerians ahead of 2023.
“The candidate must also not be found wanting in terms of integrity and sound intellect, considering their antecedents,” he noted.
“Here, of those on the lips of politicians, I would pick Bakare, Fayemi, Amosun. Others may be hard to sell,” he claimed.
