After the Presidential and National Assembly elections that will take place next Saturday, February 23, 2019, attention of Nigerians and the international communities will turn to the gubernatorial and State Assemblies elections billed for Saturday , March 9, 2019.
Unlike the presidential election, the Governorship and State Assemblies elections are more local, hence, the apprehension and fear of violence by political analysts and watchers of political events in the country.
To the electoral umpire, it has also been a great task monitoring different court judgements and court orders on participation and non-participation of some political parties, especially the ruling All Progressives Congress in States like Zamfara, Cross River and River States. The way different courts of jurisdiction make pronouncements on the issue and the different interpretations by different interest groups has made laymen and ordinary Nigerians confused.
Apart from this, three states namely: Oyo, Ogun and Imo are being seen by political analysts as flashpoint states where extra measures must be put in place to forestall crises.
OYO STATE AND THE FIVE CONTENDERS
In Oyo State, five parties with notable candidates and with large followers are in the race. They are the ruling party in the state, the APC, with a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr Bayo Adelabu, as its candidate. The growing party, the African Democratic Congress, is fielding a notable and experienced politician, Senator Femi Lanlehin, as its candidate. A former Governor of the state, Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, is carrying the banner of the African Democratic Party; a former Secretary to the State Government of Oyo State, Chief Sarafadeen Ali, is contesting the race on the platform of Zenith Labour Party; while a grassroots politician, Mr. Seyi Makinde, is the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party.
With less than a month to the governorship election in Oyo State, it is now clear that the battle to succeed the incumbent Governor, Senator Abiola Ajimobi, is dangling between the earlier mentioned five heavy contenders, who have entrenched themselves in Oyo politics and who have been mapping out strategies on how they would outwit each other in the contest.
In the last three months, the gladiators have been campaigning vigorously, for the job. The atmosphere in the state is now very tense with pockets of violence here and there. This, according to observers, has put fear in the minds of a section of the electorate, a situation which the people of the state believe could lead to serious chaos during and after the election.
The battle is not limited to physical violence, but war of words, and bill boards, which indicates that the contenders are all confident they can win the election. In the last three weeks as well, there had been allegations and counter allegations over the violence in different parts of the state, which have led to loss of lives and valuable property. The pockets of violence in Oyo State have also left families and many homes in tears.
An Ibadan based public affairs commentator, Comrade Gboyega Lawal, told The Point that the people of the state were apprehensive that the outcome of the election might create violence, warning that security agencies must put in their best during and after the election to forestall trouble.
WORRISOME SITUATION IN OGUN
The situation in Ogun State is more worrisome.
Ogun APC is going into the 2019 governorship election as a divided house with Governor Ibikunle Amosun working for the success of his favoured candidate, Mr. Adekunle Akinlade, who is currently the standard bearer of Allied Peoples Movement (APM). Dapo Abiodun, the recognised candidate of APC in Ogun however remains the preferred choice of a former governor of the state, Chief Segun Osoba; the national leader of APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu; and the National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole.
What transpired recently during the presidential campaign rally of the APC where, even in the presence of President Muhammadu Buhari, stones and other objects were hurled freely at party leaders on the podium immediately President Buhari presented the party’s flag to Abiodun, the gubernatorial candidate, is an eye opener of the battle the security agents may have to face during the election.
In Ogun PDP, though the National Executive of the party maintained that Hon. Ladi Adebutu was the PDP candidate, the court has recognised Senator Buruji Kashamu as the party’s candidate. INEC has also recognised Kashamu as the PDP candidate. This confusion is seen as a source of crisis in the coming election.
However, observers see the African Democratic Congress as a party that has gained from the crises that seem to have torn the two major parties apart. This is in addition to the observed popularity of the gubernatorial candidate of the party, Prince Gboyega Isiaka, popularly called GNI, and what analysts described as the peace associated with the party’s structure in the state.
DIVIDED HOUSE IN IMO
Another state that may pose security threat is Imo State, where the ruling APC is also going into the election as a divided house. Having denied his preferred successor and son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, the gubernatorial ticket under the APC, Governor Rochas Okorocha has ‘purchased’ the gubernatorial ticket of the Action Alliance for him. Thus, while Okorocha is contesting the senatorial election on the platform of APC, his supporters will not support the APC gubernatorial ticket, Senator Hope Uzodima, and have vowed to vote for Nwosu, who is contesting on the platform of Action
Alliance.
This situation and rivalry between the core APC members and supporters of Governor Okorocha, who are backing two different candidates, is considered as a trigger of possible violence during and after the elections.
Speaking on the flashpoint states, the National Coordinator of the Democracy Vanguard, Comrade Adeola Soetan, said since the states had been identified early, the security agencies should evolve a pro-active measure to curb violence.
