In June 2022, the President of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, said in Abeokuta, Ogun State, that it was his turn to preside over the affairs of Nigeria and subsequently proceeded to lay the spirit of “emi lokan” out to the admiration of his supporters.
Tinubu, who was then a burgeoning presidential aspirant in his party, the All Progressives Congress, was aware that the establishment at the time wanted to jeopardize his presidential ambition and so he went for the jugular, not minding whose ox was gored.
He also vented frustration on the leadership of the APC, the party he helped create, for not giving candidates a level playing field. And while at it, he reminded everyone who cared to hear his opinion on the matter that he helped make immediate past President, Muhammadu Buhari, to reach the pinnacle of his political career.
That was the moment “emi lokan” (It is my turn) was born. Tinubu had his eye on the presidency and he unashamedly poured his heart out to some of his die-hard supporters.
“It is my time. I’m educated. I’m experienced. I have been serving people for a long time. Bring me the presidency, it is my turn,’’ he said.
“Igbo politicians have not mastered the art of working together. Many of them are overambitious and even if Tinubu supports any one of them to be President, you will be amazed at how other candidates will come from nowhere to divide the region’s votes”
Twenty-six months later from that momentous occasion, which almost left him looking discombobulated, Tinubu is now the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
He, against all the odds, beat all comers to the coveted APC primary ticket before coasting home to victory in the presidential election proper.
And love him or hate him, Nigerians appreciate the fact that Tinubu is a man of few words that is respected for his actions and political sagacity.
This is part of what has given credence to the high expectations that he could buy into “Igbo lokan” – it is the turn of the Igbo – in support of the South East’s quest to snap the presidency up in 2031.
An Abuja-based public affairs commentator, Shahid Adams, told The Point, “From the time Tinubu uttered ‘Emi Lokan’ until the time he became President, he proved that he is a determined man. What the Igbo need, too, is determination.
“Of course, it is possible for an Igbo man or woman to be President in 2027, but I have a hunch that their chances will be brighter in 2031.
“I, therefore, support the idea that “Igbo Lokan” will make more sense in 2031. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just egging the Igbo on. It will not work.
“Although, despite what I call my blind optimism, it is not yet cast in stone that the President will support the region to produce the next President.
“This is why I advise the leaders of the region to continue to be strategic. Look at what happened during the nationwide hunger protests. The Igbo avoided the protests at all costs and it is still paying off for them.
“And oh yes, they have also been supporting the President like never before. So, let us wait and see whether they will reap the fruits of their new-found loyalty to him.”
Loyalty or not, however, the Igbo have been accusing other power-hungry regions in Nigeria of riding roughshod over their desire to produce one of their own as President.
And because they find themselves caught in a precarious position, Tinubu’s intervention might make all the difference in the world to them.
The President’s voice could effectively put paid to the long-term debate in Nigeria on the need for the next president of Nigeria to come from the South East, a situation that can bring closure to a painful chapter in Ndigbo’s history.
Charity, however, begins at home. Analysts agree that before Tinubu can fire the “Igbo lokan” agenda up, the leaders in the region must rev up cooperation with the APC and also use their influence to build up a formidable support base for the APC Government at the Centre.
The Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has been doing a yeoman’s work in this regard, although he was slammed by his critics after they said he was bereft of ideas and could not explain how the APC would takeover Labour Party-controlled Abia State and dominate the South East, generally.
When he called on the Igbo to continue supporting Tinubu, Kalu said, “Given all the remarkable achievements of the president and our great party in the last one year, I urge the South East region to remain steadfast and not join any calls to revolt against a president who has done so much for our country.
“We must stand united in support of his visionary leadership.
“And while we celebrate the President’s achievements, we must acknowledge that there is still much work to be done. The APC’s presence in the South East is not as robust as it should be.
“Out of five states (in the South East), we have only two under our party’s leadership. This is not enough. We must push to bring the rest on board, either by converting those in opposition governorship seats or by winning the states outright.”
To their credit, other Igbo leaders, such as former Governor of Abia State, Orji Kalu, Minister of Works, Dave Umahi, Governor of Imo State, Hope Uzodimma, and a host of other prominent APC bigwigs from the South East have also already begun to put in shifts so as to give their region a fighting chance in 2031.
But they will have their work cut out for them because “Igbo lokan” will be no tea party. The usual political pitfalls abound for the South East and the region must navigate them seamlessly.
For instance, critics of rotational presidency have said that it favours the Hausa/Fulani and Yoruba ethnic stocks.
To dispel fears, however, the Igbo are reminded that Tinubu is a progressive Yoruba man and the fact that their region has not smelt the presidential seat since the start of the Fourth Republic is not lost on him.
Controversially though, Tinubu chose a Northerner, Kashim Shettima, as his Vice Presidential candidate during the campaigns and judging by how political succession plans, with all its concomitant battles, work in Nigeria, his number two will likely have his eye on the top job in 2031, thereby setting the stage for a potential clash with the Igbo then.
Concerning the marginalisation of the South East, there is arguably a much-awaited light at the end of the tunnel.
Tinubu is not toeing the path of his predecessor, Buhari, who, according to the leader of the Ijaw Nation, Edwin Clark, did everything to “subjugate the Igbo for reasons best known to him.”
Unlike Buhari, who mostly excluded the South East from major appointments and juicy positions during his administration, analysts say that Tinubu has shown magnanimity and that his decision to carry the Igbo along in his presidency is commendable.
A political analyst, Umar Aliyu, told The Point, “In my opinion, the problem the Igbo will have going forward will not be a lack of support from the President. I believe the President will give them the necessary support, but my fear is that they will not be able to manage it.
“Igbo politicians have not mastered the art of working together. Many of them are overambitious and even if Tinubu supports any one of them to be President, you will be amazed at how other candidates will come from nowhere to divide the region’s votes.
“On the flip side, even if Tinubu does not support the region and Peter Obi, for example, is on the presidential ballot in 2027 or 2031, he should be given all the necessary support to win the election.
“But I don’t see this happening. We saw how things transpired last time out between him and his Governor, Charles Soludo.”
A former Deputy National Chairman of the People’s Democratic Party, Bode George, said last week that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar must wait till 2031 if he wants to contest for president again.
George, in a statement on Wednesday, said that a southerner must occupy the office of the President and Commander in Chief from 2023 to 2031 “because that is the reality of our country, PDP constitution and our polity”.
“Even in 2027, Atiku will be 81 years old and this is the time for him to embrace the President Joe Biden concept of allowing the younger generation to run for the highest office in the land.
“I have nothing personal against Alhaji Abubakar. He is my friend but the truth must be told. By 2027, by God’s Grace, I will also be in my 80s.
“So, what am I looking for in public office as an octogenarian? The same principle should apply to Alhaji Abubakar.
“We all saw what American President, Joe Biden, did recently when he stepped down for Kamala Harris to contest the November presidential election.
“That is the hallmark of a statesman. Alhaji Abubakar should do the same so that in 2027, PDP will field a southerner as presidential candidate,” George, a former military governor of Ondo State, said.
According to him, the immediate past President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner from Katsina State, just left office after ruling for eight years.
He said that power at the federal level could not go to the North in 2027 because “that is the reality of our country and our party’s constitution”.
George said that Section 7, Sub-section 3 (C) of the PDP Constitution stated that zoning and rotation must be maintained for justice, fairness and equity.
He added, “In our party, this is the right and logical thing to do in the present political circumstances.
“But if Alhaji Abubakar is desperate to contest again, I will advise him as a friend, a party man and brother to wait till 2031. By then, he will be 85 years old.
“As loyal party members, we must continue to respect the PDP Constitution. Fair is fair. I joined the PDP in 1998 and I have remained in this party since.”
Also, a former Senator representing Kaduna Central Senatorial District, Shehu Sani, has weighed in on the debate surrounding President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027.
According to Sani, the constitution guarantees every Nigerian the right to contest elections, stressing that any region can contest.
He noted that the 2027 election should be contested by candidates from the Southern part of the country, allowing the North to produce the president in 2031.
“From my point of view, the issue of the 2027 election should be left for the South to contest; whether it is President Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi or ex-President Goodluck Jonathan. And then, the North now has the legitimate right to contest and be allowed to produce the president in 2031,” he said.
He noted that it’d be fair for the North to support the current president because he (Tinubu) was there for them when needed most.
“Asiwaju (Tinubu) is a product of the North and is reciprocal for what he has also done for northern Nigeria. Buhari had contested for the presidency for so long a time but it was only when he allied with Tinubu that he emerged.
“So, Tinubu took for the North at a time that they needed him most and it is time for them (the North) to stand for him. After all, when he is done, the north will now have the opportunity to produce a president from the North East, North West or North central,” he added
Sani, a human rights activist, also suggested that Tinubu’s camp should focus on good governance, addressing insecurity, poverty, and education in the North to ensure his re-election in 2027.
He emphasised that the desperation of some northern political elites to return to power was not in the interest of the North but driven by personal reasons.
Sani further noted that Tinubu could get a second term in 2027 without the full support of the North, citing his victory in the previous election despite not winning in key northern states like Kaduna, Kano and Adamawa.
He, however, hoped that the political elite in the North would respect the principle of rotation of power and allow the South to complete their 8 years in office before the North produced the president in 2031.
The former lawmaker said, “The constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria guarantees that every Nigerian can contest election. Any region can contest the election. That’s what the Constitution says.
“I believe that the 2027 election should be left for the South to contest. And then the North will now have the legitimate right to contest and be allowed to produce the president in 2031.
“It is in the interest of national unity and peace that southern Nigeria be allowed to complete their eight years in office and then it will rotate back to the north in 2031.”
Sani noted that if Tinubu would “succeed in addressing the security situation, education and poverty in Northern Nigeria, no northern elite will stop him from getting re-elected in 2027.
“The desperation to return to power in 2027 by some northern political elites is not in the interest of the North but simply on personal reason, having some of them being schemed out.
“I believe that he will get re-elected. The resentment against Asiwaju (Tinubu) from the north now stems from the fact of the economic situation we are facing in the country, and I believe that if that issue is addressed, he will still regain those whom he had lost.”
Recently, the apex Igbo socio-cultural organisation, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, cautioned the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, that his relentless pursuit of Northern connections posed inherent risks and uncertainties to the realisation of Igbo presidency.
The group, which advised Obi to learn from history, stressed that alliance with some opposition leaders in the Northern might not guarantee his presidential ambition in 2027.
“From my point of view, the issue of the 2027 election should be left for the South to contest; whether it is President Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi or ex-President Goodluck Jonathan”
In a statement by the Secretary General of the group, Okechukwu Isiguzoro, the body noted that alliance of leaders of the opposition parties and potential merger of existing parties as spearheaded by Obi’s confidant, Pat Utomi, to sack President Bola Tinubu in 2027 was charged with anticipation.
“The recent political maneuvers of former Anambra Governor and 2023 Labour Party Presidential Candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, have stirred both surprise and scrutiny among Nigerians and Ndigbo. Mr. Obi’s deliberative visits to key Northern figures such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Jigawa Governor Dr. Sule Lamido, hint at potential opposition party alignments aimed at unseating President Tinubu in 2027.
“The Northern political establishment, religious scholars, and traditional institutions harbor reservations towards Mr. Obi for several notable reasons. Firstly, his failure to clearly address the issue of Biafra Agitation and enunciate a definitive stance on the matter has left the Northern elites hesitant about endorsing an Igbo presidency.
“Secondly, questions abound concerning the substantive benefits that the North stands to gain from Mr. Obi’s self-reliant and self-assured political approach, especially when contrasted with the impactful empowerment endeavors undertaken by figures like President Tinubu and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.
“Thirdly, the North is bewildered as to why Mr. Obi has shifted his focus from his historical support bases such as the South East, Middle Belt, and Niger Delta regions, redirecting his efforts towards soliciting acceptance in the Northwest and Northeast areas,” Ohanaeze Ndigbo stated.
The apex body, therefore, implored Obi to glean wisdom from the poignant lessons of history, specifically the disenchanting experiences of past Igbo presidential candidates, who pinned their hopes on Northern endorsement.
“Ohanaeze Ndigbo extends well wishes to Mr. Obi in his political pursuits in the North but implores him to glean wisdom from the poignant lessons of history, specifically the disenchanting experiences of past Igbo presidential candidates who pinned their hopes on Northern endorsement.
“Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, Senator Rochas Okorocha, Senator Chuba Okadigbo, and others serve as stark reminders of the disappointments faced by Igbo aspirants despite their overtures and perceived alliances with the North,” Isiguzoro noted.
