The spate of violent protests erupting in some African countries has raised concerns about the possibility of an African Spring in the continent.
According to American historian, John Merriman in his book, “A History of Modern Europe: From the French Revolution to the Present,” a spring, or more conveniently, a political spring refers to any of a number of student protests, revolutionary political movements or revolutionary waves.
A spring is intended to be used to bring about political liberalisation, cause changes in government policies, bring to the notice of government the effects of inflation and corruption on the people and force those in authority to address political and socio-economic challenges faced by people.
However, violent protests and civil insurrections are usually the methods adopted during the period of a spring. And sometimes despite the loss of lives and destruction of public infrastructure, it (spring) does not achieve its aims.
The first political spring had its origin in Europe in 1848 and was called the “Spring of Nations.”
It was marked by a series of revolutions throughout Europe and countries such as Italy, Germany, Denmark, France, Poland and others, took part in it.
Following the Spring of Nations, other regions and nations of the world have also experienced a spring in one form or another since then.
There was, for instance, the Prague Spring of 1968 and the Beijing Spring of the late 1970s, which were periods of political liberalisation and mass protests in the former Czechoslovak Republic and The People’s Republic of China, respectively.
And not too long ago in 2012, there was the Quebec Spring in Canada and the Valencian Spring in Spain, which involved students who, in acts of civil disobedience, vented their anger on the authorities over a hike in University tuition and cutbacks in educational budgets, respectively.
But the spring that will ring a bell with Africans is the Arab Spring of the 2010s that overthrew the governments of some countries in the Arab world.
Fed up with human rights abuses, provocative authoritarianism of their leaders, poverty, unemployment, corruption in high places, in their respective countries, the people in the Arab world rioted against their governments and it turned into a bloodbath.
The uprising started in Tunisia and then quickly spread to other North African countries like Libya, Egypt and Morocco. Yemen, Syria and Bahrain, too, were not left out.
And not only rioting, the people used rebellion, strike actions, self-immolation – setting oneself on fire, civil wars, internet activism, and the like, to eventually oust then Presidents Ben Ali of Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya.
Now, because of the violent protests that have erupted in Kenya and Uganda, and with a hardship protest planned in Nigeria on August 1, which could potentially turn violent and has kept the government on its toes, analysts are worried that a spring might be inevitable in the continent.
Beginning with Kenya, the violent demonstrations in the East African country, which has run into the seventh week, has continued to defy solutions.
What started as a protest by Kenyans against a “reprehensible” Kenya Finance Bill 2024 – a finance bill that supports increased taxation – has thrown the once peaceful country into anarchy and turmoil.
The bill was passed on June 25 by members of parliament and for their trouble, their parliament building was burnt by the angry protesters.
Although Kenya’s leader, William Ruto, has sent the bill back to parliament and made some other political concessions, the situation in the country has remained grim.
Ruto also dissolved his cabinet but, in an unpopular move, reappointed half his cabinet secretaries. His action incensed many Kenyans who said they voted for him during the election because he appealed to them.
The police have used water cannons to disperse rioters and fired tear gas, water cannons and live bullets at rioters, but the determined Kenyans have stood their ground.
They want Ruto to deal with corruption, bad governance, mismanagement of public funds, and shockingly, they also want him to quit office.
In Uganda, the country’s President, Yoweri Museveni, was rattled by calls for protests on July 23, 2024, in the country’s capital, Kampala, and had warned that the protesters were playing with fire.
Museveni has been in the saddle for almost 40 years but corruption has festered in the East African country and young Ugandans on social media are now saying enough is enough.
However, their planned anti-corruption march on parliament was not going to be a walk in the park. Many Ugandans were arrested and whisked off into waiting security vans before being moved to detention centres.
The police have already arrested some opposition politicians. And they insist that the protests are not only banned in the country, but also a threat to the country’s peace and stability.
Concerning the planned protest in Nigeria, those aggrieved are likely taking a page out of the playbook of the dramatis personae in Kenya and Uganda, and that has been a source of concern for the authorities.
“I am not a member of the APC but I can tell you for free that Tinubu is trying his best. He is doing everything in his power to save this country and we must give him support”
The human rights activists and youths who called for the nationwide protests say they will storm the streets because of the hardship imposed on them by the removal of subsidy on petroleum products and other government policies they consider to be anti-people.
Analysts have noted that other African countries will be watching proceedings in Nigeria. If the planned protests were to hold and were successful, it would further influence these nations to also declare protests in their own countries, a situation that will not augur well for the continent.
The President of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, and his allies have therefore continued to work proactively to ensure that the protests do not hold.
Tinubu has engaged several stakeholders, including traditional and religious leaders, in his bid to ensure that peace reigns but time will tell whether Nigerians will pay heed to him.
A current affairs analyst, Benedict Njoku, told The Point, “I hope that the events we are witnessing in Kenya, Uganda and maybe the one we will experience in Nigeria on August 1, will not leave Africa devastated.
“And to your question, there won’t be an African Spring.
“We know that bad leadership is the root cause of the unrest and protests in Kenya and Uganda. I pray we do not experience such in Nigeria
“And I am not a member of the APC but I can tell you for free that Tinubu is trying his best. He is doing everything in his power to save this country and we must give him support.
“For example, he has increased the national minimum wage. He has also been showing that he has empathy for Nigerians. He is better than most presidents we have had in the past.
“Tinubu has also promised to address all the issues affecting us as a nation and we must not use our hands to destroy all that he has achieved since he came onboard as President last year.
“This is why I am urging fellow Nigerians not to allow the country to degenerate into Kenya or Uganda. We are a great nation and we must stand by our leaders.”
A political analyst, Muyiwa Bello, who also spoke to The Point, said that it was unfortunate that Nigerians were trying to “copy” Kenya to foment civil disobedience.
He said the president should be given the benefit of the doubt and studied to see whether he can truly solve the country’s many problems.
“It is very surprising that we want to learn from Kenya. But I know that Kenyans are usually the ones learning from us.
“As for the President, he could act like a tyrant and crush any protest that led to violent demonstrations, but he has shown that he is not interested in doing that.
“He wants to avert the protest. So, let’s give him the benefit of the doubt. Let’s give him a little more time because, soon enough, we will find out whether he can solve our problems or not.”
In addition, Bello said that Nigeria is the giant of Africa as well as a bona fide big brother that will not let the rest of Africa down.
