Love him or hate him, Nigeria’s former president, Olusegun Obasanjo, 87, is a bona fide kingmaker who attracts attention and also ignites political discussions through his choice of a presidential candidate he throws his weight behind.
Obasanjo’s contributions, too, to national politics, particularly through his famed open letters, which he writes to sitting presidents and Nigerians alike, have featured prominently in Nigeria’s chequered democratic reality and have helped to shape the polity.
Analysts are, therefore, unanimous that the letters, though usually controversial and capable of ruffling feathers, are always timely. They concur, too, that the letters are an essential piece of the country’s political jigsaw.
That is why those who are in the know about the essence of the letters have pointed out that should any serving president’s performance in office be the reason for a polarising debate, Obasanjo’s assessments can help Nigerians to make an informed decision about who to vote for.
Obasanjo has, for that, impressed upon Nigerians that he is a candid former military head of state that makes his feelings plain about issues that affect Nigerians, and while at it, will clearly show his bias for what he stands for.
Hence, as Nigerians have come to realise, the Abeokuta, Ogun State-born politician makes everyone see his position on such issues in black and white, or better still, in writing.
Obasanjo first stirred up a hornet’s nest in 2013 when he wrote an open letter to former president Goodluck Jonathan.
The letter was least expected, at least by those in the then ruling People’s Democratic Party, because Obasanjo was a member of the party, which Jonathan happened to belong to.
In his 18-page letter, which was dated December 2, 2013, and titled “Before it is too late,” Obasanjo, among other accusations, said that Jonathan was inept. He also lampooned Jonathan for his failure at delivering democratic dividends to Nigerians.
Not finished, Obasanjo also said that Jonathan’s government was corrupt and that he was incapable of addressing the Boko Haram menace that was bedeviling the country.
Obasanjo also said that Jonathan failed to promote national unity, and that he was clannish, too, and buttressed his argument with the allegations that the then president’s supporters, such as Edwin Clark, were insulting Nigerians who were criticising Jonathan and that he (Jonathan) did not caution them.
Jonathan was also blamed for the crises in the PDP. He was reminded by Obasanjo that he said he would not contest the 2015 presidential election, but reneged on his promise.
Obasanjo then went ahead to accuse Jonathan of placing over 1000 Nigerians on political watch lists and training snipers and other armed persons secretly.
And then while rounding off his letter, Obasanjo, in part, said, “My last piece of advice, Mr. President, is that you should learn the lesson of history and please do not take Nigeria and Nigerians for granted.”
Fourteen months later, precisely in February 2015 and just a few days to the general elections, Obasanjo at the book launch of “My watch,” in Nairobi, Kenya, had gone ahead and endorsed Buhari.
He said, “The circumstances [Buhari] will be working under if he wins the election is different from the one he worked under before, where he was both the executive and the legislature; he knows that.
“It’s a question of leadership – political and military.
“He is smart enough. He is educated enough. He is experienced enough. Why shouldn’t I support him?”
After his return to Nigeria, Obasanjo quit the PDP. He even asked his ward chairman to tear his PDP membership card.
Of course, Jonathan was rattled by Obasanjo’s open letter, and after the election was held, the fallout contributed to his fall in the 2015 presidential election, but aided All Progressive Congress candidate, Muhammadu Buhari’s emergence as president.
After Buhari became president-elect, Obasanjo started off by writing a congratulatory letter to him, dated March 31, 2015.
In the letter, Obasanjo said that Buhari’s success and victory after three previous attempts at the presidency ought to be great object lessons for him (Buhari) and for all politicians, particularly in Nigeria.
He drew Buhari’s attention to the many harm done to national institutions and reminded the then new president that he would have a lot to do on institution reform, like in the military, healthcare, power.
However, three years after his congratulatory letter, Obasanjo, on January 24, 2018, was forced to issue a press statement over the fortunes of the country, which was on a downward trajectory.
In the statement, which was addressed to Buhari, Obasanjo berated the president for the government’s poor performance, poverty, poor economic management, nepotism, gross dereliction of duty, insurgency, herdsmen/farmers issue, which he said was being wittingly and unwittingly allowed to turn sour and messy.
Buhari’s perennial failing health, which had at the time spanned several months and kept him to seek medical attention abroad, was also highlighted in the statement.
Obasanjo told him to get some well-deserved rest and not to seek re-election.
Obasanjo also said that the situation that made Nigerians vote massively to get Jonathan “off the horse” was playing itself out again.
He, therefore, called for the establishment of a Coalition for Nigeria, stressing that the CN need not be a political party but one to which all well-meaning Nigerians could belong to.
“Obasanjo, I am sure, will also have a lot to say about Tinubu’s government. Something tells me that he will criticize Tinubu when the letter hits the newsstands; but let us wait and see”
Moreover, Obasanjo, who said he would join the coalition when it would be formed, said CN would salvage and redeem the country.
Somehow Buhari managed to win re-election and dodged the “misfortune” that could come with an Obasanjo write-up.
The statesman did write another letter to Buhari that was dated July 15, 2019. However, it was not as explosive as the last one. Obasanjo mainly urged Buhari to deal with the insecurity in the country, especially the Northern part.
Much later, in an unexpected turn of events, which surprised many pundits, Obasanjo endorsed the candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, in the 2023 presidential election.
Obasanjo did it through an open letter he wrote on New Year’s Day, on January 1, 2023.
In the six-page letter titled “My appeal to all Nigerians, particularly young Nigerians,” Obasanjo took a swipe at Bola Tinubu, the then presidential candidate of the APC, explaining that ‘Emi lokan’ (My turn) and ‘I have paid my dues’ were one and the same thing.
He added that they also have the wrong attitude and mentality for leadership of Nigeria then.
Obasanjo also said that the last seven and a half years under Buhari had been eventful and stressful years for many Nigerians, and that the country had moved from frying pan to fire and from mountain top to the valley.
Interestingly, Obasanjo also said that among all the presidential contestants, Obi had an edge. However, Obasanjo’s support for Obi to win the election missed the mark because Tinubu eventually won it all.
Nigerians, therefore, are of the view that God should preserve Obasanjo’s life; they expect to see him supporting a candidate in 2027, courtesy of a fresh, new open letter.
“I await another new, open letter from Obasanjo,” a political analyst, Odume Emevo, said, “His letters never get old. Remember that we are talking about Obasanjo here,” he added.
“I want Obasanjo to support Obi again in 2027. But now that he has gone to hold meetings with Atiku, Obasanjo’s assumed enemy, let us see how it will all go.
“Obasanjo, I am sure, will also have a lot to say about Tinubu’s government. Something tells me that he will criticise Tinubu when the letter hits the newsstands; but let us wait and see,” Emevo said.
Another analyst, Collins Ugorji, said, “I hope Baba Obasanjo will support his kinsman in 2027.
“Though he is detribalised, Tinubu is doing a great job. I hope, too, that their past rifts will not come between them.
Asked to comment about Obasanjo’s physical condition, Ugorji said, “The man is in tiptop condition. I saw him jump off a stage after delivering a speech. I have also seen him playing football.
“I am very sure he will have the energy to write another compelling open letter when the need arises.”
