- Carryover of party squabbles, internal crises to fester
- Battle for Edo, Ondo gov tickets may throw up new heavyweights
BY TIMOTHY AGBOR, OSOGBO
Before Nigerians witnessed the 2023 general elections, those that are politically savvy have known that the Independent National Electoral Commission would still be engaged with off-season governorship elections later this new year, 2024.
But, not many could predict that 2023 would not be enough for the national election manager to conduct all polls that would pave the way for Nigerians to choose their leaders in the general elections.
With circumstances apparently beyond the control of INEC, the electoral umpire would also be battling with some pockets of by-elections in 2024, which are offshoots of last year’s elections.
Consequently, 2024 will be slightly akin to 2023 because it will feature some interesting political events that will in no small measure shape politics, especially at the sub-national levels.
In this New Year, aside from the scheduled elections, there will be carryover of some political squabbles, especially from godfathers to godsons and governors to their deputies.
The political space in the country would also be agog with continuous internal crises among major political parties and how they would either mend fences or deepen the bad blood.
After losing at the presidential poll, Nigerians would be interested in following up with the political movements of the presidential candidates of the Labour Party, Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party and how their political parties would fare at the by and off-cycle elections slated for 2024.
PRESIDENT BOLA TINUBU
One of the major factors that will shape Nigerian politics in 2024 is President Bola Tinubu’s avowed commitment to ensure free, fair and credible re-run, bye and off-season elections that would be acceptable to all the contestants.
The president’s directives to the security agencies on the conduct of the elections and his support for INEC will have far-reaching implications on this year’s elections.
When the nation had the last off-cycle elections in Kogi, Bayelsa and Imo States, President Tinubu disclosed his administration’s resolve never to interfere with elections conducted by INEC.
Tinubu’s party, the APC, is at the forefront of the elections this year.
If President Tinubu matches his words and body language with actions, and orders the security agencies to ensure a level-playing field for all the contestants and their political parties in the 2024 elections, the polls will beat the 2023 elections in terms of fairness and transparency.
President Tinubu’s actions or inactions will no doubt be a major factor that will shape Nigerian electoral activities this year.
BY-ELECTIONS AND COURT-ORDERED POLLS
It is no longer news that since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, the nation’s electoral process has been from the ballot box to the courtroom.
No thanks to the endless disputes that arise before and after elections by aspirants, candidates and their political parties.
The litanies of litigations that greet elections have become a huge burden to INEC. The 2023 general elections were the worst hit so far as no fewer than 1,000 pre-election cases littered various levels of courts in the country.
Sequel to the conduct of the 2023 general elections, no fewer than 10 of the 18 political parties that participated in the polls felt dissatisfied and filed close to 450 petitions at the various election tribunals in 27 states of the country to quash the victories of those INEC declared winners.
Before the Supreme Court upheld his victory, no fewer than five petitions were brought to the Presidential Election Tribunal against the declaration of Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress as president.
These petitions also included those across the states against the outcomes of some Governorship, Senate, House of Representatives and state assembly elections.
For several months, courts adjudicated on these petitions and passed judgments that ousted some elected officials, upheld victories of others and ordered the election management body to re-conduct elections in some constituencies.
To this end, the re-run and by-elections would be held simultaneously in nine states on Saturday, February 3, 2024 as Nigerians of voting age in the affected areas are warming up to cast their ballots again.
For the senatorial districts, elections would be held in Ebonyi South, Ebonyi State, and Yobe East, Yobe State.
For the state constituencies, INEC will conduct elections in Chibok State Constituency, Borno State, Chikun State Constituency, Kaduna State, and Guma State Constituency, Benue State.
For federal constituencies, the elections will be held in Akoko North East/Akoko North West Federal Constituency, Ondo State, Jalingo/Yorro/Zing Federal Constituency, Taraba State, Surulere 1 Federal Constituency, Lagos State, and Yauri/Shanga/Ngaski Federal Constituency, Kebbi State.
Analysts have contended that the by-elections are expected to increase the advantage of the ruling APC in the National Assembly, while state assemblies would record more of the same.
Explaining that the resignation or demise of members of the National and State Houses of Assembly which resulted into vacancies in the parliaments as declared by the Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, and Speakers of State Houses of Assembly have risen to the by-polls and re-runs, the National Commissioner and Chairman, Information Voter Education Committee of INEC, Sam Olumekun in a statement added that, “The vacancies occurred across two senatorial districts, four federal constituencies, and three state constituencies spanning nine states of the federation.”
Will security agencies tame the scourge of killings ahead of planned polls?
Meanwhile, Nigerians are concerned about the worsening insecurity in the land, especially in the North as the affected states are set for the simultaneous by and re-run elections.
They are hoping that security agencies would up their games and tame the scourge of killings and attacks in some parts of the country ahead of the planned polls.
“If President Tinubu matches his words and body language with actions, and orders the security agencies to ensure a level-playing field for all the contestants and their political parties in the 2024 elections, the polls will beat the 2023 elections in terms of fairness and transparency.”
EDO GOVERNORSHIP ELECTION
INEC has fixed September 21, 2024 as the day voters in Edo State would file out to exercise their franchise at the governorship poll.
Edo is one of eight off-cycle governorship elections currently in Nigeria. Others are Anambra, Bayelsa, Kogi, Ondo, Ekiti, Osun and Imo States.
The off-season election began with Anambra in 2006, when former governor, Peter Obi, who contested under the All Progressives Grand Alliance, was sworn in.
Nigerians are eager to know the person that will take over the reins from the incumbent Edo State Governor, Godwin Obaseki.
Already, the political atmosphere in the South-South state is gathering momentum as various aspirants have been intensifying consultations ahead of parties primaries slated for February, 2024.
The battle for the state’s number one seat of power is going to be a three-horse race among the major political parties – The ruling PDP, the opposition APC and now the LP.
As it stands today, the Labour Party in Edo State is the beautiful bride in the forthcoming governorship election judging from its past performance in the last presidential and national assembly elections.
However, one of the major hurdles political parties must surmount is the senatorial districts where the parties will pick their governorship candidates from especially in the face of agitations by the Edo central senatorial district that it is their turn to produce Obaseki’s successor as the two other zones have occupied the Dennis Osadebay House.
Even though there is no written agreement or legislation in rotating the governorship position among the three major ethnic groups, the Binis, Esan and Afemais, the sentiment among Esan people of Edo Central is very high to produce the next governor.
Notwithstanding that feelers have said that Obaseki who assumed office in his first term as an APC governor, but switched parties in his second term, would attempt to hand over to a successor from his current party, the PDP, some analysts and watchers have argued that governorship tickets among political parties should be thrown open to allow competence, capacity, excellence and merit as major determinant factors.
Some political scholars argued that Obaseki would be up against his former godfather, Adams Oshiomhole, who is currently an APC senator; his “interim godfather”, Nyesom Wike, a federal minister who is neither in the PDP nor in the APC; and his deputy, Philip Shaibu, who has been in rebellion for the most part of their second term.
The contest for the 2024 governorship is expected to be a big cracker among the major contenders and pretenders who had erected billboards and embarked on campaigns on different social media platforms to sell their aspiration to the people of Edo.
Among the aspirants to be watched on the platform of the APC are Senator Monday Okpebholo, the chairman, Senate Committee on Public Procurement; Senator Oserhiemen Osunbor, a former governor of the state; Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, former Chief of Staff and Secretary to the Edo State Government who contested against the incumbent governor in 2020; Dennis Idahosa, a member of the House of Representatives; Clem Agba, the immediate past minister of State, Budget and National Planning, Maj Gen Charles Airhiavbere (rtd), a former executive director, Finance and Administration, of the Niger Delta Development Commission and a former Minister of Works, Mike Onolememen.
Aspirants on the platform of the Labour Party include Ken Imansuangbon, a lawyer; Olumide Akpata, former Nigeria Bar Association president and Dorry Okojie, a realtor and a businessman.
For the ruling PDP, at least three politicians have signified interest to clinch the party’s flag. They are Asuen Ighodalo, a lawyer, touted as the ‘anointed candidate’ of Governor Obaseki; the incumbent deputy governor, Philip Shaibu who has been at loggerheads with his principal and John Yakubu, a former chairman of Esan North East Local Government Council.
In all these aspirants, Obaseki and Shaibu are the two prominent figures that Nigerians are more interested in owing to their conflicting political interests.
ONDO GUBERNATORIAL POLL
On November 16, this year, the people of Ondo State will elect a new governor. Even before the late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu bowed to death due to cancer, the political landscape in the state has been tense as gladiators and politicians embarked on an underground battle for the topnotch job.
Constitutionally, the incumbent Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa is expected to complete Akeredolu’s second term which expires on February 23, 2025.
At the moment, many aspirants in the ruling APC, PDP, Social Democratic Party, Labour Party and other political parties are warming up for the contest, starting with the party primaries.
It was gathered that some gladiators outside the state have started returning home to contribute to the social and political development of their communities as political meetings at the wards and local government levels have been scheduled to commence in earnest.
It was gathered that no fewer than 15 members of the governing APC have discreetly shown interest in contesting the governorship ticket next year.
They include Governor Aiyedatiwa; the Commissioner for Finance, Wale Akinterinwa; a former Chairman of the Ondo State Oil Producing Development Areas Commission, Gbenga Edema; the Special Adviser to the governor on Health Matters, Francis Faduyile; a former governorship candidate in both the PDP and the Alliance for Democracy, Olusola Oke.
Others are the senator representing Ondo South Senatorial District, Jimoh Ibrahim, Princess Oladunni Odu (Secretary to the State Government), Ife Oyedele (Executive Director Niger Delta Power Holding Company), Duerimini Isaacs Kekemeke (APC National Vice Chairman, South West), Olusola Iji (A former ambassador), Jimi Odimayo (member representing Irele/Okitipupa Federal Constituency), Soji Ehinlanwo and Matthew Oyerinmade.
All the APC aspirants are from Ondo South Senatorial District, following the party’s purported unwritten agreement that the senatorial district would produce the next governor, given that Akeredolu was from Ondo North.
Some members of the party argued that the last governor from the South senatorial district was the late Olusegun Agagu, who served for six years before he was removed by the court and replaced by Olusegun Mimiko, who is from Ondo Central.
It was also gathered that there is an impending battle for the structure of the ruling APC in the state.
The Point learnt that the looming battle is likely to be between the late governor’s camp and that of Governor Aiyedatiwa.
Both camps had before now been locked in a bitter political battle over the confirmation of Aiyedatiwa as the acting governor in the absence of Akeredolu, who was then on medical leave.
The pro-Aiyedatiwa groups is led by the state Commissioner for Energy, Rasaq Obe and Commissioner for Commerce, Akin Sowore, while the Secretary to the State Government, Princess Oladunni Odu and Special Adviser to Akeredolu on Special Duties and Union Matters, Dare Aragbaye, are in charge of the late governor’s camp.
To show loyalty to their deceased boss, some appointees tendered their resignation letters immediately the news of Akeredolu’s demise filtered in.
Watchers said loyalists of Akeredolu had left Aiyedatiwa’s government in order to plot how to ensure that the incumbent governor is edged out from office at the November poll.
Those in Akeredolu’s camp are currently controlling the ruling party and have made it difficult for Governor Aiyedatiwa to control the structure since his emergence. The people of Ondo are expecting more contenders to emerge from the camp of Akeredolu. Already, Senator Jimoh Ibrahim has indicated interest to put his hat in the ring and has started mobilising.
If Governor Aiyedatiwa does not win key executive members of the party to his side before the primary election, it might be a difficult hurdle getting the party ticket.
Political observers have said that the primary may lead to the implosion of Ondo APC if not well handled. Another task before the state helmsman is winning the support of the state House of Assembly members who appeared to be on Akeredolu’s side.
All eyes are on Aiyedatiwa to perform in office within the short period he would be governing because his achievements would be part of the determinant factors of his anticipated victory at the polls.
Judiciary keeps Nigerians on edge
As the nation looks forward to the Supreme Court’s decisions in 2024, the outcomes of some cases are poised to significantly influence the political dynamics of the country.
The governorship election cases in Kano, Plateau, Nasarawa, and Zamfara States are the major ongoing legal battles, and their results would be a game changer for political parties and supporters.
Kano State
Kano State has been a focal point of political contention due to its substantial electoral value. The shift of power from the All Progressives Congress to the New Nigeria Peoples Party in the 2023 general elections was a significant event.
The declaration of Abba Yusuf of the NNPP as the winner of the governorship election was contested by Nasira Gawuna of the APC, leading to a legal tussle that has escalated to the Supreme Court.
The apex court’s verdict is highly anticipated and is expected to have a profound impact on the political climate of Kano State.
The Kano State Governorship Election Petitions Tribunal and the Court of Appeal nullified Yusuf’s victory and declared Gawuna winner of the poll. However, the case is currently at the Supreme Court awaiting a final verdict.
The court reserved judgment in the case after hearing the arguments from both parties in December 2023. The case has created anxiety in Kano State as Nigerians await the verdict of the Supreme Court.
Plateau State
In Plateau State, the political pendulum swung in favor of the PDP during the general elections.
Governor Caleb Mutfwang’s victory was challenged by the APC’s Nentawe Goshwe, citing issues of nomination and adherence to the Electoral Act.
The Court of Appeal’s decision to nullify Mutfwang’s victory and the subsequent appeal to the Supreme Court has kept the political stakeholders and observers on edge, awaiting a final resolution.
Plateau is one of the states that flipped to the PDP in the 2023 general elections.
Governor Caleb Mutfwang of the PDP had 525,299 votes, while the candidate of the APC, Nentawe Goshwe, polled 481,370 votes in the March 18 governorship election in the state.
Goshwe challenged Mutfwang’s victory at the tribunal, claiming that the governor was not validly nominated and sponsored by his party. He also said there was non-compliance with the Electoral Act in the election.
The tribunal dismissed Goshwe’s petition for lacking merit and also upheld Mutfwang’s victory.
In its ruling in November, the three-member Court of Appeal panel under the leadership of Justice Elfrieda Williams-Dawodu cited Section 177 of the Constitution to hold that the governor was not legitimately the PDP’s election sponsor.
The court nullified Mutfwang’s victory and ordered INEC to withdraw his certificate of return and issue a new one to the APC candidate.
However, the governor appealed the judgement and the case is currently awaiting the decision of the Supreme Court.
The hearing of his brief by the Supreme Court is on Tuesday, January 9, 2024.
“The governorship election cases in Kano, Plateau, Nasarawa, and Zamfara States are the major ongoing legal battles, and their results would be a game changer for political parties and supporters.”
Nasarawa State
Nasarawa State witnessed a contentious governorship election, with Governor Abdullahi Sule of the APC being declared the winner. The PDP’s David Ombugadu contested the results, leading to a tribunal ruling in his favour.
However, the Court of Appeal overturned this decision, prompting an appeal to the Supreme Court. The apex court’s ruling will determine the political fate of the state’s leadership.
David Ombugadu of the PDP challenged the outcome of the election, arguing that he won the majority of votes during the contest.
In October, the election tribunal declared Ombugadu the winner of the poll, saying that the results were manipulated in favour of Sule.
Dissatisfied with the tribunal’s decision, Sule headed to the Appeal Court. The Court of Appeal ruled in his favour in November, saying that the tribunal’s decision was wrong.
The PDP and its candidate have appealed the judgement at the Supreme Court.
Zamfara State
The Zamfara State governorship election also saw its share of controversy. Governor Dauda Lawal of the PDP emerged victorious, but the result was disputed by the APC’s Bello Matawalle.
The Court of Appeal’s order for fresh elections in certain areas added another layer of complexity to the state’s political narrative.
In the March 2023 election, Governor Dauda Lawal of the PDP scored 377,726 to defeat Bello Matawalle, the incumbent governor and the candidate of the APC.
Dissatisfied with the outcome, Matawalle, who has since been appointed the Minister of State for Defence by President Tinubu, filed a petition at the tribunal.
The tribunal ruled in favour of Lawal but Matawalle and the APC appealed the judgement.
In November, the Court of Appeal sacked Lawal and ordered INEC to conduct fresh elections in Maradun Local Government Area, in four wards in Birnin Magaji Local Government Area and in some polling units in Bukkuyum Local Government Area.
However, the PDP appealed the judgement, hoping for a favorable verdict from the Supreme Court.
These legal battles reflect the broader political challenges and rivalries that have characterized Nigeria’s recent electoral cycle.
The Supreme Court’s decisions in these cases will not only resolve the current disputes but will also set precedents for future elections and governance in Nigeria.
