BY BRIGHT JACOB
The dream of most politicians worth their salt is to contest and win an election. In the same vein, politicians desire to rise to the highest political office they aspire to, and this is usually hard-wired in them.
But, lamentably, for the candidate of the Labour Party in the February 25 presidential election, Peter Obi, his bold moves to sit atop Nigeria’s political empire may not be realisable and could be a mere pipe dream because of some all-too-familiar factors working against him and his presidential ambition.
Born on July 19, 1961, in Onitsha, Anambra State, Obi came to political limelight after he became the Governor of the state. But the romance with power during his first term in office was fraught with political turbulence due mainly to his unceremonious removal from office twice before the end of the constitutionally stipulated time frame of four years.
Obi contested the governorship seat in Anambra State in 2003 under the All Progressives Grand Alliance. He rejected the outcome of the election and headed to court after Chris Ngige, then with the People’s Democratic Party, was declared Governor. After legal fireworks which spanned almost three years, Ngige’s election was nullified by the Appeal Court, the first of its kind involving a sitting Governor in Nigeria, and Obi was declared winner.
After he assumed office in March 2006, Obi was impeached in November, barely eight months after he took up the reins of office, by members of the Anambra State House of Assembly for alleged gross misconduct. Obi’s deputy, Virginia Etiaba, was sworn-in as Governor.
Undeterred, Obi approached the court once again to seek redress and the following year, in February 2007, his impeachment was voided and he was reinstated as Governor. However, before the April 2007 general elections in Nigeria, Obi opened a Pandora’s box which ignited constitutional questions about the validity period of his tenure in office and whether the governorship election should be held or not in the state.
The Independent National Electoral Commission chose to conduct one. Andy Uba of the PDP emerged victorious and was sworn-in as Governor. But Obi, who said he would not contest in the election because he had three more years in his tenure, was removed from office.
Against the advice of those who urged him not to push his luck too far, Obi’s recourse, yet again, was the court. And, ruling on the constitutional question about his tenure, the court in a landmark judgment decided that Obi be allowed to complete his four-year term.
Uba was kicked out of office and Obi took charge. He enjoyed the remaining three years in his tenure without any more impeachment brouhaha. Obi also won re-election in 2010 for a second term in office and handed over to Willie Obiano in 2014.
His dreams to ascend the pinnacle of his political career still intact, Obi left his party, APGA, which was perceived as a regional party, and pitched his tent with the PDP the same year he left office. Under former President Goodluck Jonathan, who had barely a month to hand over to Muhammadu Buhari in May 2015, Obi was appointed as the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
After Buhari was inaugurated as President on May 29, 2015, Obi was sacked a few months later by the new APC government. However, his influence in the PDP continued to grow, and in 2019, he was chosen as the running mate of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, in the 2019 presidential election.
“For Obi, the journey towards the much-coveted presidency has turned out to be daunting and may be an exercise in futility now and even in the future because of the wide range of factors working against him”
The PDP lost the presidential election, and Obi stayed on in the party till 2022. Meanwhile, he threw his hat in the ring to contest for the office of president in the 2023 general elections, but dramatically left the umbrella party barely three days to the party’s presidential primary in Abuja.
Analysts say Obi knew he stood no chance in the PDP primary, hence, his decision to quickly exit the party and pursue his political ambition elsewhere.
In his resignation letter to now-ousted PDP National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, Obi said his decision to leave the party was due to “recent developments within the PDP” which made it impossible for him to continue participating and making constructive contributions.
He joined the Labour Party and ignited a political buzz that is unrivalled since MKO Abiola, prior to the June 12 presidential election. And it didn’t end there, social media savvy youths, who were fed up with the status quo in the country, also birthed the Obidient movement, whose members cried from the rooftops their intention to take back their country.
Having come and gone, the presidential election produced the candidate of the APC, Bola Tinubu, as president-elect. He polled a total of 8,794,726 votes and was followed by PDP candidate, Atiku, who polled 6,984,520 votes. Obi came third with 6,101,533 votes, while Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, came fourth with 1,496,687 votes.
Dissatisfied with the outcome of the poll, Atiku and Obi said the election was flawed. The two political heavyweights held separate press conferences and each claimed victory in the poll. They also vowed not to call and congratulate Tinubu on his victory and as expected; their petitions have been brought before the court in separate litigations.
For Obi, the journey towards the much-coveted presidency has turned out to be daunting and may be an exercise in futility now and even in the future because of the wide range of factors working against him.
To begin with, Obi promised that he would prove his case in court and retrieve his “blatantly stolen mandate” in the presidential election. But analysts have noted that in the history of democratic rule in Nigeria, the court has never nullified the electoral victory of a sitting president before. These analysts are of the view that the recent election may not be an exception.
They also claim that Obi’s past victories as governor notwithstanding or his status as a celebrated veteran of electoral litigations, securing an electoral victory at the national level would be a different kettle of fish.
“They’re two different scenarios,” says a political scientist, Moyo Jaji, about Obi’s legal victories in Anambra State and the current election petition he filed in court.
“Anambra is one of the 36 states. But we are talking about a national election now….not an isolated case like Anambra,” Jaji added.
Continuing, Jaji said, “The two are different happenings, so the fact that Obi was able to surmount legal battles over there does not mean that he will do the same thing now.”
Jaji also said that impugning the court by accusing the Chief Justice of Nigeria, Olukayode Ariwoola, of having a clandestine meeting with the president-elect, which was found to be untrue, would not help Obi and Atiku’s cause.
Another thorny issue snarling at Obi’s ambition is the agitation for secession by members of the Independent People of Biafra. This has raised not a few eyebrows and made politicians from the South East “suspects”.
Nigerians from regions other than the South East fear that handing over power to Obi could set in motion the end of the Nigerian state as presently constituted. These Nigerians have chosen to keep Obi far from the seat of power in Abuja and also said the IPOB agitation could make the Labour Party’s further growth impossible.
The IPOB agitation compelled Jaji to declare that the Labour Party or Obi would not be able to unseat Tinubu in 2027. Jaji equally said that playing the race and religious cards would avail Obi nothing.
“You have already said you want to secede and you want me to hand over my destiny to you? Those who are calling Nigeria a zoo; now want to rule the zoo, apparently their fathers didn’t tell them the true story of how things went (during Nigeria’s civil war).
“And you can see from the results so far….Obi played the ethnic and religious cards. And Christians voted for him because of the Muslim-Muslim ticket. That was why he could defeat somebody like Tinubu in Lagos. So, if they can repeat it, let’s see how far it will take them in 2027 or thereafter,” Jaji declared.
In a related development, some diehard supporters of Obi expressed worry about the courts not ruling in Obi’s favour and fear that attempts by Obi to have another go at the presidency in 2027 may still hit a brick wall because some influential Igbo elites would not cozy up to his ambition.
Obi’s supporters point to the open letter written by incumbent governor of Anambra state, Chukwuma Soludo, who detailed the futility of Obi contesting the recent presidential election, and the Igbo’s unreadiness as a people for the presidency.
These adherents of Obi also noted that the likes of billionaire businessman, Arthur Eze, who withheld support for Obi during the last election and even advised him to withdraw from the race, would “rear their heads” again in 2027.
However, Obidients have been emphatic that the effects of the refusal of “erring” Igbo elites to support Obi would be like “a drop in the ocean,” and they continue to sermonise about the “organic love” Obi enjoys everywhere he goes.
For instance, on the occasion of the first year anniversary of Soludo’s government at the International Conference Centre in Akwa, Obi, who adorned his modest, all-black attire, but without the Labour Party’s “papa, mama and pikin” logo, walked into the event venue and received a thunderous ovation that suggested he was loved by ordinary Anambrarians.
Obi’s critic, Reno Omokri, applauded the show of love and stated he then believed that Obi actually scored the 95 percent presidential election result announced by INEC for Anambra State.
Other critics, on the other hand, insisted that the support of the Igbo elites was vital to Obi for future elections.
They argue that the Igbo elites can influence elites from other parts of the country who in turn will influence their own people to support Obi, especially in areas where Obi has a weak support base.
“Whether you believe it or not, Obi needs the support of all Igbo elites. It’s a shame that Southeasterners continue to cry about marginalisation but had one opportunity to ‘snatch’ the presidency through Obi, but bungled it. Though Obi won overwhelmingly in the South East, those elites de-marketed him elsewhere,” an analyst, Michael Idigie told The Point.
“Obviously, selfishness is at the root of this matter. And I also saw the video of Obi’s entrance into the venue of Soludo’s celebration and it was amusing to me that the former Governor immediately became the centre of attention and took the shine away from the sitting Governor,” Idigie concluded.
Another knotty factor that stares Obi forlornly in the face concerns his political party, the Labour Party. The APC and PDP repeatedly said during the build-up to the election that the Labour Party didn’t have the structure to win elections in the country and would be Obi’s Achilles heel.
Formed in 2002 and known as Party for Social Democracy, the party came to be known by its present name in 2003. But for nearly 20 years, the Labour Party, except in 2012 when Segun Mimiko was re-elected under it as Governor of Ondo State, did not win any election whatsoever until the Obi aura hit it in 2022.
So far so good, with supplementary elections slated for April 15, 2023, INEC had announced that the Labour Party had already secured 43 seats in the National Assembly, 35 in the House of Representatives and eight seats in the Senate. Of course, the lone governorship seat secured in Abia State also attested to the beauty of Obi’s political craftsmanship.
In spite of this impressive record, political observers have stated that there’s still no equivalence, or anything near it yet, between the LP and the APC or PDP. They have studied presidential heat maps which show that the LP won largely only in the South East, Obi’s political stronghold, but not in the South West and the core North.
Continuing their assessment, they also said it would be difficult for Obi to make any remarkable impact in the Northern part of the country under the banner of Labour Party because the party “is not popular in the core North.”
Perhaps, the most bizarre and seemingly ignored factor that may also work against Obi is the “revelation” made by a “former” National Chairman of APGA, Victor Oye, that Obi made a “vow” that he would never leave APGA, except death did them (Obi and APGA) part.
Oye said that while Obi was in APGA, he did “superlatively” well, but when he left the party, the “APGA spirit” left him. According to Oye, Obi has never achieved anything politically since his departure.
Oye also said that Obi, who claimed he left APGA in 2014 because he wasn’t wanted in the party, must return to the party to be relevant politically once again, else he would continue to “jump from pillar to post” without any (political) achievement, since it was APGA that gave him a platform and he took a vow never to leave.
“I believe it won’t stop Obi. It is politics, and it’s a dirty game. Except APGA is a cult, they can continue to cry over spilled milk and also expect blood in return,” Emeka Onwuachu told The Point.
“Whether you believe it or not, Obi needs the support of all Igbo elites. It’s a shame that Southeasterners continue to cry about marginalisation but had one opportunity to ‘snatch’ the presidency through Obi, but bungled it”
Onwuachu, who is a pastor, however urged politicians to “be mindful of their utterances and also be principled” because “no condition is permanent.”
Last week, opponents of Obi found another reason to lampoon him after a telephone conversation between him and the Presiding Bishop of Living Faith Church, David Oyedepo, surfaced online.
In the leaked audio, obviously obtained before the presidential election, Obi appealed to Oyedepo to speak to Christians in certain parts of the country for their support as the election was “a religious war.”
Those who berated Obi for the audio said he frequented churches during the presidential campaigns, but paid little or no attention to mosques because he had a religious agenda. They also pointed out that if Obi continued on that path, he would realise, once again, that Nigerian Christians alone would not be enough to make him the President of Nigeria, a country with a significant Muslim population.
Other naysayers also said Obi’s reply to Oyedepo which was fused with so much “yes, daddy” simply showed that Obi would not be a man of his own and would be “controlled” if he were to be the President.
And with Obi’s running mate, Datti Baba-Ahmed, who said on live television that Buhari and the CJN shouldn’t swear-in Tinubu, together with the uproar over Obi labeling the election a religious war in the leaked audio which he said was fake, and which necessitated the Federal Government’s subtle threat to charge him for treason, Obi said he was under pressure to leave the country.
On the forging of a coalition to wrest power from the APC, Obi was also blamed for not being adept at “sweet-talking” bigwigs from other political parties into accepting him as their consensus candidate. And those who faulted him said he must perfect the art of persuasion to avoid another political limbo and thereby dodge another potential obstacle to becoming President in the future.
Before the presidential election in February, there were talks about a likely marriage of convenience between the LP and the NNPP. However, the presidential candidate of the NNPP, Kwankwanso, said he would not step down for Obi because he was the bigger and more influential politician, and stepping down for the younger Obi would be preposterous.
Kwankwanso also said that even if he liked the Igbo because they are enterprising and good, they were at the bottom of the ladder in the “game of politics” in Nigeria. He noted that the Igbos had lost out with the PDP and APC completely, and the NNPP was the only choice they had.
That opportunity to forge an alliance between the LP and NNPP eventually vapourised and after the election both parties found each other at the bottom rung of the presidential ladder into Aso Rock Villa.
