- Opposition parties remain in crises despite reconciliation effortsÂ
- Analysts identify selfish interests of leaders as major hindrance
- PDP Govs summon emergency meeting of party organs to resolve contentious issues
As efforts by some notable leaders in the opposition parties to form an alliance ahead of the 2027 general elections continue to gain ground, political affairs analysts have said that the worsening crisis rocking opposition parties would frustrate their chances.
They also identified the seeming lack of readiness of those who had challenged President Bola Tinubu in the immediate past election to sacrifice their presidential ambition as a strong obstacle the proposed coalition might confront.
In their separate interviews with The POINT, some politicians and public affairs analysts expressed pessimism about the viability of the planned merger, citing irreconcilable squabbles in the opposition parties.
They described President Tinubu as a political master strategist who could not be easily defeated by the coalition as was done against former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 by the APC.
Asked if the PDP could offer a robust opposition to the APC in 2027 general election, the National Vice Chairman of the PDP (South South), Dan Osi Orbih, answered philosophically: “In every society, in every government or in every country, in a democracy, you will have a party that is in government; you will have parties that are in opposition who are not in government. Every opposition party can define its role and play it the way it sees it. So, the issue of do you believe your party can give a good opposition is a natural question in every democracy whether you are a party in government or you are a party in opposition.
“How you play your role depends on those who are entrusted to play that role. I want to tell you that there is nothing that stops PDP from being a robust, vibrant opposition. Again, it depends from which perspective you are looking at it. I mean, that is why you need to talk to our chairman. There are things he may know, which he is busy doing underground that can make the party stronger as an opposition than the way you are looking at it. So, go to him.”
“As an insider in the SDP, there are some principalities in that party and anybody going there is just wasting his time. What we now see is politics, other than the governance that Nigerians would have expected.”
A political pundit, Rasaq Olokoba, argued that since the APC came into power, opposition parties have been thrown into disarray and that after about ten years of its reign, almost all the opposition parties have been “weak and tattered.”
For him, the chaotic situations in the opposition parties have been partly responsible for weakening democracy in the country.
He wondered about the possibility of a coalition in the midst of turbulent political realities, stressing that the internal bickering rocking opposition parties might be the bane of the merger and its bid to defeat the ruling APC at the forthcoming presidential poll.
Olokoba claimed that the crisis in the PDP persists because the party no longer gets “free money.”
“It is no longer news that Nigeria’s opposition political parties have not been unable to live up to the expectations since the APC got into power. The chief among these parties is the PDP. The party has remained in disarray since it left power and I believe it is because they no longer get the free money, the common wealth that they enjoyed while in power. You know what can happen when our politicians are no longer in power. It surprises me as to why their crises had lingered this far.
“The APC was in the opposition and still, it maintained its watchdog and healthy criticism role to the point of strategising a coalition that sacked former President Goodluck Jonathan. They never kept quiet or became so unperturbed to national issues like what we are seeing in the PDP. The party, just like other opposition, is factionalised seriously and I am saying this because it is not good for them to go into election that way.
“Also, it is not ideal for our democracy and we cannot progress in this way. Viable opposition political parties are major factors of national growth. If the opposition continues to bicker and fight, then tell me how they are going to contribute to national discourse dispassionately? It will surprise you that people no longer see the nation’s opposition as an alternative. We cannot continue this way,” he said.
Another analyst, Goke Omigbodun said coalition and plan of ousting Tinubu might be difficult but it is not impossible.
He hinted that if politicians who were former allies of President Tinubu could come together and team up with Atiku and Obi among others, eschew selfish interest and sacrifice their personal political ambition, the merger would be fruitful and APC would be dislodged in 2027.
Omigbodun pointed out that the pervasive internal wrangling in Nigeria’s political system is not only known with the opposition, saying the ruling party is also having a share of the crisis.
He said with the likes of former Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola and Nasir El-Rufai who had left the political tent of Tinubu, it might be difficult for the President to retain the presidency beyond 2027.
“The opposition parties and leaders have so far failed to show any serious commitment or strategic coordination needed to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress ahead of the 2027 general election.”
The former 2022 governorship candidate in Osun under the SDP, however, advised Atiku, Obi, Aregbesola, El-Rufai to settle the differences in their various political parties, present a sellable candidate who would wrestle power from the incumbent administration.
Responding to why it has become almost impossible for opposition parties to quell the intra crisis assailing them, Omigbodun said, “It is not just the opposition parties that are in disarray, the ruling party is also in disarray. That reflects the much touted fact that for a long time, we have not been able to see them hold meetings that they ought to be held periodically, that says so much about their crisis.
“The Labour Party is also battling with it. As an insider in the SDP, there are some principalities in that party and anybody going there is just wasting his time. What we now see is politics, other than the governance that Nigerians would have expected.”
Omigbodun asked the opposition to be wary about the antics of President Tinubu who may want to clip the wings of its merger plan, urging them to shun individualistic approach and be united.
“So, here is a President who was able to gather his acts together from ACN and come up with APC and was able to defeat the incumbent, PDP. I do not foresee him seeing anybody trying to put any political party together now and ordinarily, seeing him successful at it. Most things about politics are not what you do individually and President Tinubu has his way into it.
“But, let us see what will happen between the master strategist (Tinubu) and his army of soldiers that have deserted him and are now working against him. If you want me to name names, then I would mention Rauf Aregbesola who is also a political strategist and Nasir El-Rufai. This merger ought to have started in 2023 but there was little of selfishness in Atiku who did not want the South to produce a president. The whole thing got messed up by the selfish entitlement mentality of Atiku who expected that a Fulani President should be succeeded by another Fulani. Atiku ought not to have contested that election,” he claimed.
Another political expert, Funso Babarinde, explained that the touted coalition by Atiku and other opposition leaders might fail to achieve its aim because President Tinubu might influence decisions of opposition party leaders.
According to him, the nation might witness a weak presidential election in 2027 where many opposition parties may not be able to present candidates.
Babarinde said, “The President and ruling party have put their hand into the leadership hierarchy of all other political parties. We will have a very weak Presidential election in 2027 while we can only hope something good will come up with the expected merger for the political optics.”
Meanwhile, some Nigerians have, again, expressed displeasure over the state of the nation, and called for a democratic change of baton of leadership in the country to another political party other than the ruling APC.
A citizen, Leke Adebayo, urged the opposition to make the coalition agenda work in order to “rescue Nigeria from suffering and hardship.”
“We are tired of the APC government. We need to be rescued. That is why we were happy when former Vice President Atiku Abubakar announced a merger plan. We see this initiative as the only sure means of unseating President Tinubu in 2027. We only want to urge the opposition leaders to settle their differences and rescue Nigeria from APC,” the youth leader said.
Sources close to those involved in the coalition plan have already hinted that the political ambition of some individuals and zoning disputes are stalling negotiations among the political leaders.
The opposition parties and leaders have so far failed to show any serious commitment or strategic coordination needed to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress ahead of the 2027 general election.
This is unlike the APC during its days in opposition, when it stood as a formidable force against the then ruling People’s Democratic Party.
In recent weeks, opposition parties’ figures have intensified consultations which have seen the beginning of realignment of political forces. This is in preparation for the much-talked-about coalition of parties to wrest power from the ruling party in 2027.
Led by Atiku Abubakar, the PDP’s presidential candidate in the 2023 election, Nasir El-Rufai, former Kaduna State governor, Peter Obi presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general election, the opposition leaders have promised to give the ruling APC a run for its money and change the political narratives.
Atiku had recently admitted that the coalition plan ahead 2027 was on.
“Yes, this is the birth of the coalition of opposition ahead of 2027,” Atiku had said at an event convened to address President Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State over the political crisis there.
Among those present were Peter Obi’s representative, Yunusa Tanko; Babachir David Lawal, Nasir El-Rufai, Segun Sowunmi, Soni Monidafe, Salihu Lukman, Peter Ameh, and Adamu Maina Waziri.
But there are concerns about the commitment of some politicians to the realisation of such a coalition and sell-out by others who may be impostors.
Pundits have said that the current opposition is disjointed and largely ineffective and noted that the 2027 election could not be won by a simple coalition, but would require a solid alliance of all opposition parties.
They hinged their predictions on the fact that alliances are much more effective, stronger, offer more stability and formidable front than coalitions.
“The proposed coalition may not achieve much, given the fact that the two top opposition parties that are expected to form the coalition – PDP and Labour Party – are currently battling internal leadership crises.
“These unresolved issues are likely to linger and further weaken their collective strength, making it difficult to present a united front in the next general election,” a political analyst, Hameed Muritala, said.
Muritala further stated that the only meaningful opposition in Nigeria today are the citizens who continue to express their frustration with the policies and actions of the present government that have subjected them to untold hardship.
Presently, part of the unresolved issues in the coalition talk has been the platform to use that is acceptable.
Many political actors involved in the coalition talk have expressed skepticism about the Social Democratic Party’s capacity to seriously challenge a well-funded ruling party and are demanding that rather the LP or the New Nigeria People’s Party be used.
This current coalition approach allows political actors to remain in their respective parties while working towards a shared objective- unseating Tinubu in 2027.
Atiku is said to be in support of such a plan and has been clamouring for it since the end of 2027 general election.
Political analysts are of the view that the LP would have been the best platform for such a coalition, if not for the leadership crisis that has currently engulfed it, especially since the LP was a major force that had challenged the APC and PDP dominance in the last general election.
Speaking recently, a professor and renowned political analyst, Kamilu Sani Fage, explained that mergers require parties to collapse into one, whereas coalitions allow individuals or parties to collaborate without dismantling their structures.
He noted that the key players likely recognised the challenges of a merger, given the current state of their parties.
Many key politicians in the coalition talk, especially those in South western Nigeria are in favour of power remaining in the south for eight years.
However, there are those who want regional consideration to be put aside and a candidate that is popular and can aid the coalition chance of securing electoral victory is considered instead.
Sources revealed that the camps of Obi and former Rivers’ State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi, were demanding that power should stay in the South for eight years. Many of the political actors in the coalition plan, particularly from the South, were hesitant to fully engage in the discussions to avoid jeopardising the process.
It was revealed that part of the reasons for the delay in negotiations was due to uncertainty surrounding whether Atiku would run. But it is clear that Atiku wants a shot at the presidency, at least, for the last time.
A former APC North West Vice Chairman, Salihu Lukman, recently declared that coalition talks were on-going and that the main focus of the talks was securing a commitment from leaders to work together, even if it meant setting aside their personal ambitions for 2027.
Another critical aspect is deciding which political party will serve as the coalition’s platform.
While acknowledging that zoning concerns have emerged among some leaders, Lukman dismissed media reports that disagreements were stalling the process.
He emphasized that the final decision on candidate selection will only be made once an agreement is reached on the party platform for the coalition.
Also speaking, a prominent member of the PDP, Bode George faulted the formation of the coalition and the idea of a mega party, insisting that the move was driven by personal ambition.
George also raised concerns over the emerging alliance of opposition figures aspiring for the positions of president or vice president respectively, rather than a structured political coalition.
Another political analyst, Kunle Okunade, said the coalition has not much time to consolidate its influence in the polity and so the planners must act fast to reinvent its existence if they truly want to unseat Tinubu in 2027.
He noted that it would not be an easy task to unseat Tinubu based on his political sagacity and understanding of opposition politics.
According to him, “If you remember vividly in 2013 when APC was about to be born, Tinubu was a master of opposition politics and played a key role in the formation of a strong force that eventually unseated a sitting president.
“In this way, he understands how a strategic coalition could be used to unseat the incumbent. This strategy, Tinubu may not allow it to manifest. Suffice to say, the likes of Atiku, Obi, El-Rufai would have a huge task in coming up with a coalition that would be very proactive and smart to unseat Tinubu.
“For me, this task they may not be able to achieve because their primordial interest and ambition may destroy the essence of the coalition in the long run.”
PDP Govs summon emergency meeting of party organs to resolve contentious issues
Meanwhile, the governors elected on the platform of the PDP have summoned an emergency meeting of all the constitutional organs of the party as part of the efforts to resolve contentious issues in the party.
It was gathered that the meeting’s main agenda is the resolution of the dispute over the position of the national secretary of the party between Senator Samuel Anyanwu and Sunday Ude-Okoye.
The meeting, which is scheduled to be held in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital on Monday, April 14 (today), will be hosted by Governor Seyi Makinde.
It would be presided over by the acting National Chairman of the party, Ambassador Iliya Damagum.
According to the invitation for the meeting, those invited are all the PDP governors, all members of the National Working Committee of the party, the members of the Board of Trustees and other stakeholders of the party, including members of the National Executive Committee.
It was gathered that the meeting is crucial following the judgment of the Supreme Court, which has been given different interpretations.
It was also revealed that the party stands the risk of not participating in the November governorship election in Anambra State, if the authentic National Secretary fails to sign the nomination form for the election.
The nomination forms for the governorship candidate and the running mate are supposed to be signed by the national chairman and national secretary.
