The next presidential election in Nigeria is coming up in a little over two years time from now and religion, as usual, is expected to play a part in influencing not only voting behaviour among Nigerians but also the probable outcome of the election, expected to produce a secular President that would preside over the country’s affairs.
Religion is expected to emerge as a significant factor that will shape political activities in 2027, and if the last election is anything to go by, the 2027 election will witness the utilisation of religious affiliations to rally voters, and this is despite the fact that the country’s secularism has been espoused every now and then by those in authority.
This “secularism hoax,” notwithstanding, analysts who are familiar with the political dynamism of Nigeria insist that in the 2027 presidential election, religion will, to a high degree, determine which politician gets what, when and how.
Ever the opportunists, politicians of the different faiths, especially those of the two most dominant religions in the country, Islam and Christianity, have oftentimes been accused of dangling the religion carrot in front of Nigerians of the same faith as theirs, just to win elections.
All eyes are now on every presidential hopeful in the major political parties to see how they will sway the electorate with religion, and this should be expected because the last presidential elections, which took centre stage in the last general elections, had its fair share of religious controversies.
Starting with the All Progressives Congress – the governing party in Nigeria, its 2023 presidential candidate and eventual winner in the said poll, Bola Tinubu, a Muslim, was accused of playing the religion card when he decided to choose another Muslim, Kashim Shettima, a former Governor of Borno State, as his running mate in the election.
“We seem to have forgotten that religion has been weaponised in this country and whether we like it or not, it will shape the 2027 presidential election, one way or the other”
While explaining his decision to the leadership of the Christian Association of Nigeria, Tinubu said that his choice of Shettima was borne out of the urgent need to address the challenges facing the country.
The President also told the seemingly unimpressed CAN that Shettima possesses strong leadership abilities which he exhibited when he was the Governor of Borno State.
“We have urgent challenges that do not depend on religious leanings but on the best of hands that can address them,” Tinubu said as he pointed out that he selected Shettima because he wanted a progressive government.
The Muslim-Muslim ticket still did not still sit well with most members of CAN and its counterpart, the Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria.
By the time Tinubu wanted to formally unveil Shettima as his running mate, CAN had already told Christians not to vote for him because of the “controversial” ticket.
However, some pastors, bishops and priests decided to attend the unveiling despite the CAN directive and they were branded as “fakes,” “mechanics” and “artisans” by the Christian body.
Interestingly, one of the clergymen who attended the unveiling, Hyacinth Alia happens to be the current Governor of Benue State. He was, at the time, a governorship candidate, but his presence went largely unnoticed.
Alia countered CAN, insisting that they were not fakes.
Tinubu, in what many observers did not think of as common sense, could not visit many of the prominent churches in Nigeria during the presidential campaigns.
The President’s predicament was because many of the Christian leaders in the Southern part and Middle Belt region of Nigeria had thrown their weight behind the candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi.
Obi was apparently the “friend” of the Christian community in Nigeria.
The former Governor of Anambra State was visible in most of the major churches in Nigeria, with their respective congregations always shouting his praise whenever he walked into their midst.
A few months after the last election was won and lost, it then emerged that Obi had an “unusual” telephone conversation with the founder of the Living Faith Church Worldwide, David Oyedepo.
Obi likely sensed that the full Christian vote he anticipated could actually be a mirage, and in desperation he “begged” Oyedepo to use his influence to mobilise Christian voters in the South West and some Middle belt states.
“Thank you, Daddy, I need you to speak to your people in the South West and Kwara – the Christians in the South West and Kwara – this is a religious war,” Obi pleaded with Oyedepo.
Obi came under fire for calling the election a religious war but he clarified to Nigerians that he called the cleric to solicit votes.
Obi also said no one should vote for him based on tribe or religion, but rather on the assessment of character, competence, capacity, credibility, and compassion that can be trusted to create a New Nigeria.
A political analyst, Alex Nwadike, was asked to what extent Nigerians should expect religious drama during the build-up to the 2027 presidential election, and he told The Point, “I expect a lot of religious drama in the 2027 presidential election. Why shouldn’t other Nigerians, too, expect religious drama?
“We seem to have forgotten that religion has been weaponised in this country and whether we like it or not, it will shape the 2027 presidential election, one way or the other.
“Luckily for the President, in 2027, he will not have to kill himself trying to explain to Nigerians why he will have a Muslim running mate.
“That is true because in 2023, he ran with another Muslim and won, and everyone should by now be happy and move on about that ticket.
“But trust me when I say that in 2027, controversy is likely to arise over the Muslim-Muslim ticket.
“There will be Nigerians who will ask the President to change his running mate and put a Christian there. That request never gets old.”
Nwadike added, “Religion is a sensitive topic in Nigeria. Tinubu lost a lot of supporters after choosing Shettima, but I candidly remember he said that if he wins the election, Nigerians should use his first term to judge whether he is a religious bigot.
“To the best of my knowledge, I think he has allayed most people’s fears.
“Every religion is well-represented in his government and I am almost sure that if one was not told, one would not readily know his religion.
“All that said, as we continue to countdown to 2027, the President should try to avoid any religious controversies, because they will surely come.”
Another analyst, Muyiwa Bello, said, “As some of us predicted before the 2023 presidential election, voters in predominantly Christian regions eventually voted more for Christian candidates while those in predominantly Muslim regions voted more for Muslim candidates.
“I therefore pity any potential presidential candidate that will want to lean solely on only one of the religions in Nigeria.
“Doing that will not fetch anyone victory at the poll and I believe that Obi has learnt his lesson.
“He leaned a lot on the Christian community but as we also saw, just one religious group cannot deliver the goods.
“And another thing we learnt from the last election is that as a Christian candidate, if you decide to choose a Muslim running mate, it would be better if you went for one with religious clout.
“Obi’s running mate was good, but he didn’t have what it takes to win the votes for him.
“A candidate like Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party would have appealed more to the religious sensitivity of the people up North.
“And it seems that only Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party has been able to navigate these controversies caused by religion, successfully.
“There is not much religious controversy with him. But let’s see how 2027 will go.
“The truth is that politics is unpredictable and religion adds to that unpredictability.
“And so for office seekers and those already in office, when it comes to these contentious issues of politics and religion, wisdom is profitable to direct.”
