- Why general elections may not hold in February
- No cause for alarm – INEC
With less than 195 days to the February 2019 general elections, fresh indications have emerged that the poll may not hold as scheduled, thus lending credence to the cloud of uncertainty that has enveloped the possibility of the conduct of the exercise by the Independent National Electoral Commission.
One of the fresh hurdles before the 2019 general elections is the scheduled resumption of the Senate, which is currently on recess, for September 26, 2019, as The Point gathered that this would definitely make the early consideration and passage of the budget for the elections by the upper legislative house impossible.
INEC, which has recently registered over 10 million new voters, will definitely require more than six months to produce essential materials for a general election that will take place in over 1,500 national, state and local government constituencies. Also, the number of political parties in the country has risen to 68 and all of them are going to be involved at almost all the stages of the election.
Here we are, just about 190 days to the elections, the process to conclude amendment to our electoral law has not been concluded
The INEC budget for the election has been split into two, with the first part that will take care of the materials for the election like ballot papers, card readers and other necessary materials that must be on ground, still being laid before the Senate.
President Muhammadu Buhari forwarded the INEC budget to the Senate on July 17, but the upper chamber had yet to look into it before it hurriedly went on a break to resume on September 26, 2019.
Though some of the All Progressive Congress senators are calling for a call off of the break and an early resumption to consider the INEC budget, there are fears that the INEC budget matter could be used as a ploy to get the upper house to reconvene to effect a change of the principal officers of the Senate.
The gale of defections of lawmakers on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress that hit the Senate before it went on recess, it was learnt, might hinder the early consideration of the INEC budget.
Senate President Bukola Saraki, who has the power to reconvene the National Assembly, recently defected to the opposition Peoples Democratic Party and his position is now under serious threat. Saraki, political analysts fear, may not reconvene the Senate until he is sure that the PDP has a majority in the upper chamber and his leadership is secure.
Also, a look at the election time table issued by the INEC showed that party primaries and resolution of disputes arising from the primaries would take place between August 18 and October 7, 2018 for state and national offices elections. National Assembly members are, therefore, expected to be more concerned about how to get return tickets. These activities will take place in their local constituencies and not in Abuja.
To these politicians, what is on the front burner is how to secure tickets and not attending sittings in Abuja.
But the implication of this on the 2019 general elections, according to findings, is that INEC may not get the required funds for the production of material for the election on time. The quantum of election materials needed for the general elections is not what can be purchased on the eve of its conduct.
Also, the second batch of the INEC budget, which will take care of personal allowances of permanent and ad-hoc staff as well as fueling and other costs not required until election proper, is being provided in the 2019 budget.
Since the assumption of office of President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015, the national budget has never been passed before May. In fact, this year’s budget was passed in June. Therefore, If the budget is not passed before February, the implication is that INEC will suffer a cash-crunch and this may hinder its performance.
Electoral Amendment Bill and reordering of election sequence
The 2018 Electoral Amendment Bill has been transmitted to the President but as of the time he left for London for what the Presidency described as a 10-day working visit, the bill had yet to be assented to.
It was gathered that the bill is critical to the election as about 46 innovations are contained therein. These include legalising the use of card readers because in an issue involving the 2015 general elections, the Supreme Court ruled that the usage of card readers was not in the Electoral Act.
Also, last Wednesday, the Appeal Court sitting in Abuja upturned the decision of the Abuja High Court declaring that the National Assembly had the power to reorder the sequence of election. The legal option will not be closed until the issue reaches the Supreme Court. This means that INEC’s timetable on the elections can still be tampered with a few days to the conduct of the exercise.
Speaking on this development, an election observer, Mr. Samson Itodo, said his opinion on the plan of the National Assembly to reorder the sequence of elections was informed by the timing and the implications on the preparation for the 2019 election.
Itodo said, “But the Court of Appeal has ruled and I would have been surprised if it ruled otherwise. The key question was if the National Assembly could reorder the elections. Whether it falls within the constitutional competence of the National Assembly and, indeed, if it falls within their competence. But the question is the interest of the public at the time they tried to reorder the elections. And we have constantly hold that you don’t amend an election law close to election and undermine the process.
“Here we are, just about 190 days to the elections, the process to conclude amendment to our electoral law has not been concluded. It has been transmitted to the President. He has not assented to it. We know that as soon as the President assents to the bill, it is going to alter a lot of arrangements put in place by INEC.
“I do hold the National Assembly responsible for that because they know that elections are fixed for 2019. How come it has taken us three years to amend our election laws? My grouse is the timing of the changes and the fact that the National Assembly waited until the commission published the time table for election. This will have huge logistic implications for the 2019 elections.”
He added, “Look at the time the President forwarded the 2019 election budget to the National Assembly, at the tail end of their vacation. We have not concluded that, we don’t even know how much we are going to spend. The end of an election begins with the preparations. You don’t come six months before election and amend the law.
“It is improper for the legislators not to be sensitive to the issue of management of elections. When you wait till the last minute to pass a law, you create room for the mismanagement of election procedure. You also create loopholes that can be exploited to manipulate elections. The 2019 general election is under threat.”
NO CAUSE FOR ALARM – INEC
But speaking with our correspondent, the Chief Press Secretary to the INEC Chairman, Mr. Rotimi Oyekanmi, said there was no cause for alarm as the commission was sure that the Senate would reconvene and pass the budget before September 25.
He said, “INEC began preparing for the 2019 general elections from November 2015, when the current Commission came on board. Many things have been put in place and many more are being positioned. The Commission launched its 2017 – 2021 Strategic Plan, which includes the 2019 election cycle, and the Strategic Plan of Action early last year. We also launched our Election Project Plan and the timelines are being followed up
meticulously.
“In April 2017, we unveiled for the first time, the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise and, so far, we have registered over 10 million new voters. Another improvement is the process of voting on Election Day. Whereas, before now, voters used to go through accreditation, and return later to vote, now, accreditation and voting take place simultaneously. This saves time and makes it more convenient for voters to cast their ballot. Our Smart Card Readers (SCRs) have also been enhanced. In the Anambra and Ekiti governorship elections, for instance, the rate of failure of the SCRs was less than three per
cent.
“We have improved the way we handle our logistics. In the recently concluded Ekiti governorship election, we tracked all our vehicles delivering materials across the state’s 16 local government areas in real time. More than 75 per cent of the Polling Units opened at 8am. And in the spirit of transparency, elections results are now pasted at every
Polling Unit after collation and counting of votes. This began with Anambra governorship election and was repeated in the Ekiti governorship election. We have also carried out several training
programmes.”
Oyekanmi added, “We are on course. There are three stages to every election: pre-election, election day and post-election activities. INEC has its regular budget apart from the election budget; so we are able to execute our pre-election activities to a large extent. We also receive a lot of assistance from our development partners for many of our pre-election activities, especially in the areas of training and voter education. We have a good relationship with both the Presidency and the National Assembly and we are optimistic that our budget will be passed soon. We believe that the National Assembly will pass the budget before September
25.
“We have never lacked funds to conduct a general election. It is a constitutional requirement known to the approving authorities. We are not worried. We believe we will have sufficient funds to conduct the 2019 general
elections.”
